The Intelligence Summit - Intelligence News and Information

U.S. ties Israeli billionaire with Chinese intelligence

2010-01-31T11:22:00.000-06:00

The Admiralty complex is one of the trademarks of Hong Kong’s urban landscape. Overlooking the port, the complex used to house the soldiers of the British army and the headquarters of the Royal Navy in the region. Today it is part of the city’s business center. One building there houses a group of companies nicknamed the 88 Queensway Group (the address of the building), which the U.S. administration suspects is nothing more than a cover for activity conducted by the People’s Republic of China’s foreign intelligence. Wu Yang, one of the group’s senior directors, provided the Registrar of Companies in Hong Kong with an address that matches the address of Chinese foreign intelligence.

The suspicions were spelled out in a report recently compiled by the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, which was established by Congress in 2000 in order to “monitor, investigate and submit to Congress an annual report on the national security implications of the bilateral trade and economic relationship between the United States and the People’s Republic of China, and to provide recommendations, where appropriate, to Congress for legislative and administrative action.” The report noted, among other things, that the group of Chinese corporations has business ties with Israeli businessman and diamond magnate Lev Leviev.

Using the group, Chinese intelligence acquires oil and energy companies and other important assets in countries in Africa, Latin American, Southeast Asia, as well as in the United States. In this way it promotes Chinese national interests, increases its influence and guarantees the supply of raw materials – first and foremost oil – necessary for its economy.

China is already an important economic-diplomatic and security factor in Africa, and the day is not far off when it will become the major power on that continent – surpassing the United States, France and Great Britain in importance. It has large investments in Congo-Brazzaville, Guinea, Zambia, Nigeria and Angola. Some of these countries are oil producers and some are subject to U.S. and EU boycotts due to their human rights situations. For China, however, the absence of human rights is not an obstacle. Trade between China and African nations has increased tenfold in the past nine years – from $10 billion in 2000 to $107 billion in 2009.

China also aims to penetrate the economies of Argentina and Venezuela. By means of liaisons, the directors of the Chinese companies have succeeded in forging personal ties with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez, and Nestor Kirchner, the former president of Argentina who is married to the current president.

Source: Intelligence Quarterly

Yemen clashes continue, ceasefire offer rejected

2010-01-31T11:20:00.000-06:00

SANAA, Jan 31 (Reuters) – Yemen rejected a ceasefire offer from Shi’ite rebels on Sunday and said fighting was continuing, as neighbouring Saudi Arabia accused the insurgents of mounting sniper attacks inside its territory. The conflict with the northern rebels, who complain of social, religious and economic discrimination in the southern Arabian state, has rumbled on since 2004, but intensified last year and drew in oil-rich Saudi Arabia.

Yemen is also struggling against al Qaeda and southern secessionists, and Western powers fear it could become a failed state.

The U.S. State Department’s counterterrorism chief was visiting Yemen on Sunday, state media reported, a week after Britain hosted a conference on how to stabilise the Arab world’s poorest country.

Yemeni soldiers clashed with rebels in the northern provinces of Malahidh and Saada, killing 20, including a leader responsible for training, state media reported on Sunday.

Rebel leader Abdul-Malik al-Houthi said on Saturday he was prepared to accept government conditions for a truce, days after he made a ceasefire offer to Saudi Arabia and said his fighters had withdrawn from Saudi territory. [ID:nLDE60T0DV]

But a government official said on Sunday: “The Houthi offer is rejected as it does not vow to end attacks on Saudi Arabia and because it sets as a condition an end to military operations (by the government) first.”

The rebels said they would accept five conditions set by Sanaa for a ceasefire that include the removal of rebel checkpoints, withdrawal of forces and clarification of the fate of kidnapped foreigners.

The government says the rebels must also return captured military and civilian equipment and stay out of local politics.

But the Houthis made no mention of the sixth condition, the ending of attacks on Saudi Arabia, which Sanaa added after Riyadh launched an assault against the rebels in November.

“This is a key demand we cannot make concessions on,” Tarek Ahmed al-Shami, a spokesman for Yemen’s ruling party, told Reuters.

Yemen would “see no obstacle” to ending its military operations if the rebels committed themselves to all six points, the National Defence Council said in a statement.

A Saudi military source said rebel snipers were still crossing the border into Saudi territory and exchanging fire with Saudi troops daily, nearly a week after the rebels said they would withdraw from Saudi land.

Saudi Arabia declared a full victory over the rebels on Wednesday.

The Yemeni Defence Ministry’s online newspaper said the rebels, known as the Houthis after the name of their leader, had opened fire on a refugee camp, killing a child and wounding two others. There was no response from the rebels to the claim.

Britain hosted talks in London last week where countries including the United States discussed ways to stabilise the Arabian Peninsula state, which grabbed the world’s attention after the Yemen-based regional command of al Qaeda claimed a bomb attempt on a U.S.-bound plane on Dec. 25.

Yemen’s President Ali Abdullah Saleh, its foreign minister and other senior officials met Daniel Benjamin, the U.S. State Department’s coordinator for counterterrorism, state media reported.

“They discussed counterterrorism and ways to cooperate between the United States and Yemen, especially in the military, security and development areas,” a senior official told Reuters.

Source:

Fractured Fairytales about Jihad on Capitol Hill

2008-10-02T02:12:00.001-05:00

By Jeffrey Imm

On September 23, 2008, in the U.S. Congressional Rayburn House Office Building (RHOB), speakers in a panel discussion sponsored by the Counterterrorism Blog (CTB) and the New America Foundation (NAF) spun fractured fairytales about Jihad and the need for America to "engage" with proponents of Islamic supremacism. (I previously wrote a background article on this subject entitled "Jihad and the Growing Surrender of American Counterterrorism.")

The September 23 panel discussion topic was "The Jihadists' Revolt Against Al Qaeda" based on a New Republic article co-written by Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank. The speakers on the panel were: Peter Bergen of the "liberal think tank" New America Foundation, Counterterrorism Blog contributing experts Paul Cruickshank and Evan Kohlmann, and the Quilliam Foundation's Maajid Nawaz. The audience at this panel discussion included foreign policy analysts, counterterrorism analysts, the Saudi Arabia press, and a representative from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS).

Per the Bergen/Cruickshank New Republic article, the focus of the discussion by most of the panelists was that disagreements over tactics between Al-Qaeda and other Jihadist and Islamic supremacist (aka "Islamist") groups was "making Americans safer," and the idea that Americans should "engage" with "Islamist" groups to promote peace. Bergen, Cruickshank, and Kohlmann addressed details on how Al-Qaeda bombing tactics (resulting in the death of other Muslims) have alienated Al-Qaeda from other Jihadists.

One attendee in the audience asked the obvious question: "Isn't this just a PR problem for Al-Qaeda that they can solve by simply killing just Americans [i.e., non-Muslims]?" Predictably, the panelists waffled on answering this question, stating that it was really more than a "PR problem," and moved on to reiterate the tactical differences between Al-Qaeda and other Jihadist groups, as if we didn't hear them the first time around.

Paul Cruickshank also offered the standard "regionalization" argument, stating that the "jihadist movement over the years has been very amorphous," representing different ideologies. This argument claims that because Jihadist groups in different regions of the world have different near-term tactical goals, we should ignore their overall shared ideology in Islamic supremacism. Moreover, Mr. Cruickshank failed to actually explain how such Jihadist groups have different "ideologies," but led the audience to believe it is a complex issue; the "complex issue" argument is used to avoid a direct answer on anything obvious, implying that Americans should leave such thinking to experts like himself. In fact, the root problem is that many in the counterterrorism community simply refuse to acknowledge the obvious basis of Jihadist actions in the ideology of Islamic supremacism.

Peter Bergen Calls for Engagement with Islamists (Again)

Peter Bergen, an internationally known journalist, professor, and speaker, has wide reach and influence in the war of ideas. Peter Bergen is a Schwartz senior fellow at the New America Foundation in Washington D.C., a research fellow at New York University's Center on Law and Security, and CNN's national security analyst. He has taught at John Hopkins University and at the Kennedy School of Government at Harvard University. Peter Bergen has also testified before numerous congressional committees.

Peter Bergen is also a leading proponent of surrender in the war of ideas. As Peter Bergen and Paul Cruickshank stated in their June 2008 New Republic article on Jihadists' conflicts with Al-Qaeda, "it is their ideas, not the West's, that matter." This article also claimed that Muslim Brotherhood leader Kamal El Helbawy was helping to recruit "moderates"; this is the same Kamal El Helbawy who was banned from entering the United States to attend a previous panel discussion on the Muslim Brotherhood attended by Peter Bergen and organized by Paul Cruickshank. It is also the same Muslim Brotherhood leader Kamal El Helbawy that Steven Emerson identified as a supporter of Hamas. This is the same Muslim Brotherhood whose motto is "Jihad is our way."

When it comes to such Islamic supremacist organizations (called political "Islamist" groups by foreign policy analysts), Peter Bergen has repeatedly called for America to "engage" with such groups. At another New American Foundation-sponsored event in Washington DC in September 2005, Peter Bergen recommended as counterterrorism "strategy" that America "engage with Islamists.... [who] are not our enemies and can even be our friends." (Reference, New America Foundation working papers, page 11).

At the September 23, 2008 Capitol Hill conference, Peter Bergen reiterated this position in surrendering in the war of ideas to Islamic supremacists, stating that a suggestion "not to engage with Islamists is ridiculous." Peter Bergen then made a moral equivalency between "Islamists" and Christian fundamentalists, stating "I am not a Christian fundamentalist, but I have some friends who are." His essential "moral equivalency" argument is that if he could have Christian fundamentalist friends, why shouldn't America engage with Islamists?

During this discussion on "Islamism," the ideology of "Islamism" was then equated with the ideology with Socialism, repeating the unsound Cold War thinking argument that an identity-based supremacist ideology is the same as a statist ideology (along with the illogical belief that tactical measures should be the same for dealing with such radically different ideologies.)

Evan Kohlmann Calls for Dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood

Evan Kohlmann is also another internationally known and respected individual in the counterterrorism community, who has provided expert testimony in terror trials. He is a senior investigator with the Nine Eleven Finding Answers (NEFA) Foundation, and is also a terrorism analyst for NBC News.

At the September 23, 2008 conference, Evan Kohlmann spoke in detail about Muslim Brotherhood organizations in Iraq that have distanced themselves from Al-Qaeda because of Al-Qaeda's tactics in killing Iraqi Muslims, arguing that this could be part of a larger trend where "jihadists can turn against Al-Qaeda in a meaningful way."

Evan Kohlmann was then asked about his previous statement on the Muslim Brotherhood that "I won't hesitate in saying that I believe we must initiate some kind of dialogue with the [Muslim] Brotherhood, even if we don't support their overall agenda." At the September 23 conference, Evan Kohlmann confirmed that he has been speaking with representatives of the Muslim Brotherhood. Evan Kohlmann is well-aware that the motto of the Muslim Brotherhood is "Jihad is our Way." Moreover, Mr. Kohlmann is acutely aware of the evidence revealed in the Holy Land Foundation (HLF) trial that shows the Muslim Brotherhood plans to infiltrate and undermine America, as such Muslim Brotherhood memoranda are posted on the NEFA site where he is senior investigator.

Per the Muslim Brotherhood Mohamed Akram memorandum on the NEFA website (HLF Exhibit GX 3-85 -- "An Explanatory Memorandum: On the General Strategic Goal for the Group"), the Muslim Brotherhood clearly communicates the Ikhwan's ["Brotherhood"] goals to infiltrate and undermine America:

"The process of settlement is a 'Civilization-Jihadist Process' with all the word means. The Ikhwan must understand that their work in America is a kind of grand Jihad in eliminating and destroying the Western civilization from within and 'sabotaging' its miserable house by their hands and the hands of the believers so that it is eliminated and God's religion is made victorious over all other religions."

"As for the role of the Ikhwan, it is the initiative, pioneering, leadership, raising the banner and pushing people in that direction (the Jihadist process). They are then able to employ, direct, and unify Muslims' efforts and powers for this process. In order to do that, we must possess a master of the art of 'coalitions,' the art of 'absorption' and the principles of 'cooperation.'"

Evan Kohlmann clearly is aware of these goals of the Muslim Brotherhood in America. Yet in a tactically-centered discipline such as counterterrorism, defining the strategic enemy is not a priority. Therefore, identifying the identity-based supremacist nature of the Islamic supremacist ideology at the root of Jihad is not a priority. Without a focus on who the enemy is, what the enemy believes, and a strategy to combat it, such counterterrorism analysts focus on tactical measures that they believe will, in the short-term, prevent violence. At the same time, they surrender in the very war of ideas that enables Jihadist terrorism in the first place.

Evan Kohlmann justifies calls for discussions with the Muslim Brotherhood, not as a compromise, not as surrender in the war of ideas, but as a necessity. According to Evan Kohlmann, America frequently has to talk with groups that it might not like, but America has no choice other than to have a dialogue with the Muslim Brotherhood.

But America's leadership does have a choice whether or not to engage with the Muslim Brotherhood ("Jihad is our Way"). America can choose not to legitimize such Islamic supremacists, or any other identity-based supremacist ideology, by refusing to "engage" with them or by refusing to hold a "dialogue" with them.

What U.S. government organizations are seeking a dialogue with white supremacists, black supremacists, Neo-Nazi Aryan supremacists, and such ilk, as part of "counterterrorism" tactics? Who is speaking on Capitol Hill calling for engagement with white supremacist "political" groups to prevent Ku Klux Klan terrorism? Of course, anyone who did this would justifiably become an instant public pariah. But incredibly, there is no meaningful protest or condemnation when "experts" come to Capitol Hill telling Americans that they need to surrender in the war of ideas, and engage with Islamic supremacists to prevent Jihadist terrorism.

Yes, of course, America has a choice whether or not to legitimize Islamic supremacist groups. Furthermore, our proven history of success against terrorism in America has been based on not legitimizing such groups and by confronting them, rather than by "engaging" them.

Refusing to Condemn Jihad in Afghanistan and Iraq

In the Bergen/Cruickshank New Republic June 2008 article on Jihadists allegedly turning against Al-Qaeda, they use the often repeated example of Sayyed Imam Al-Sharif (aka Dr. Fadl) renouncing Al-Qaeda. They ignore that Al-Sharif defends Jihad in Afghanistan, Iraq, and Israel. They also ignore that Al-Sharif continues to support the Taliban, stating that "Jihad in Afghanistan will lead to the creation of an Islamic state with the triumph of the Taliban, God willing."

Nor was there condemnation of Al-Sharif's support for such Jihad among the September 23, 2008 panelists on Capitol Hill either. In a half-measure that spoke volumes, Quilliam Foundation leader Maajid Nawaz stated that Al-Sharif should not be condemned for his support for Jihad in Afghanistan and Iraq, but only for his continued support for "Islamism." Quilliam's Maajid Nawaz stated that the Geneva Convention gave Jihadists the right to defend themselves in "occupied lands," and should not be criticized.

Those not attending the September 23 conference would not be aware that three of the four panel speakers seeking to provide American legislators guidance on Jihad had British accents. Maajid Nawaz, a former member of Hizb ut-Tahrir who now denounces that group, is a British citizen. This European perspective does not view America's actions overseas as justifiable; this perspective does not care that it was the 9/11 attacks by Jihadists in Al-Qaeda camps supported by the Taliban in Afghanistan that served as the rationale for our war in Afghanistan. As a result, we have such "counterterrorism experts" at Capitol Hill defending the rights of Jihadists according to the Geneva Convention. In addition, the panel discussion also included Evan Kohlmann responding to a DHS attendee on how to better prepare America against Islamic supremacist "radicalization" by stating "don't invade foreign countries." The general consensus among the panelists seemed to be that America's efforts against Jihad in other countries are wrong.

Maajid Nawaz's support for what is popularly called "defensive Jihad" was discouraging, but not surprising. Regrettably, the message of Maajid Nawaz's Quilliam Foundation organization lacks consistency. At the September 23 conference, Maajid Nawaz did condemn the ideology of Islamism and called for "values-based engagement" regarding Islamism, but he was unable to condemn the Jihadist actions of its adherents in Afghanistan and Iraq. The Quilliam Foundation struggles with the challenge of trying to be against Islamism, yet sufficiently attractive to a broad range of British Muslims, and ends up not accomplishing either completely. Thus its leaders end up being caught in the middle of having to justify promoting Hezbollah-supporting Egyptian Mufti Gomaa, defending Usama Hassan's "support [of] a just Caliphate based on the Prophetic model" (the same words used by Al-Qaeda's As-Sahab) as being "secular," and encouraging British Muslims to reform Sharia law to protect British Muslim women rather than simply promoting support of equality under British law. As then seen in the September 23 conference, while Maajid Nawaz condemned Islamism, he then defended the rights of Jihadists in Afghanistan and Iraq under the Geneva Convention. It is sad to see.

Moreover, such unwillingness to condemn non-Al-Qaeda Jihadist actions in Afghanistan and Iraq was shared by other members of the September 23 conference panel.

Paul Cruickshank: Support for Jihad is Merely One's "Politics"

Counterterror analyst Paul Cruickshank presented an NBC video interview with Hanif Qadir as an example of a "de-radicalized" British Muslim. Mr. Cruickshank pointed out, however, that Americans might not like "his politics," which turn out to be Hanif Qadir's condemnation of the American war efforts against Jihadists in Afghanistan.

In the video interview, Hanif Qadir admits to providing significant financial donations through a member of the Taliban who was allegedly raising money for "Afghan war victims." In December 2002 as a result of his donations, Hanif Qadir was then recruited by alleged Al-Qaeda individuals (who he previously describes as "Taliban") to go to a Pakistan Jihadist training camp. When Qadir realized that the Jihadist wannabes would be just "cannon fodder," he decided to flee back to London instead. Notably, in the interview, Hanif Qadir doesn't denounce the Afghanistan Taliban Jihad efforts. Instead, Hanif Qadir condemns America for bombing Afghanistan after the 9/11 attacks and reiterates how "angry" he is at "U.S. foreign policy." (In the interview, his brother, Imtiaz Qadir admits to being happy during the 9/11 attacks.)

In his interview, Hanif Qadir states that then once he was safely back in London, he decided to create a London gymnasium and community center for young British Muslims. Qadir admits that he knew that members of his community center included "radicals" who met there and promoted Jihad. One radical who used Qadir's community center was convicted British Jihadist Abdulla Ahmed Ali, the alleged ringleader of the 2006 transatlantic jet bomb plot on jets headed to America (see "Airline terror plotters planned bigger 9/11"). This is the same Abdulla Ahmed Ali who promised: "expect floods of martyr operations against you and we will take our revenge and anger, ripping amongst your people and scattering your people's body parts... We love to die in the path of Allah." After Abdulla Ahmed Ali and other British Jihadists in transatlantic airline plot were arrested, Hanif Qadir denounced their arrest as "a mistake," and defended them as "pretty much decent kids."

Yet on Capitol Hill, Paul Cruickshank portrayed Hanif Qadir and his London community center as a success story in "de-radicalizing" British Muslims.

Paul Cruickshank fails to grasp that the inability of Hanif Qadir and others to address the ideological problem of Islamic supremacism, rather than merely rejecting "Al-Qaeda" terror tactics, has done little to "de-radicalize" either him or those who attend his London community center/gym. Mr. Cruickshank sought to make a false distinction between Jihad and Al-Qaeda terrorism, when the real point of the Hanif Qadir story is that Jihadist terrorism comes from the same Islamic supremacism ideology, whether the actions are taken by Al-Qaeda, the Taliban, or individual Jihadists like Abdulla Ahmed Ali.

The larger question is, in view of the growing surrender in the war of ideas by leading members of the counterterrorism community, do they even care?

Politicizing Jihad and Islamic Supremacism to Further Infiltrate America

Such surrender by leading members of the counterterrorism community in the war of ideas does the spade work for those who seek further infiltration by Islamic supremacists in America's legislative and executive branches of government. By legitimizing Islamic supremacism and rationalizing Jihad groups, supporters of the Muslim Brotherhood and other groups are emboldened to expand their political influence and seek to "mainstream" Islamic supremacism as a legitimate American political cause.

The same day as this CTB/NAF panel discussion was taking place at Capitol Hill, another group, the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project, announced the release of a new report "Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World."

Among the members of the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project is Ingrid Mattson, President of the Islamic Society of North America (ISNA), an organization that is an unindicted co-conspirator in the ongoing Holy Land Foundation (HLF) terror finance trial. Ingrid Mattson has also recently spoken at the Democratic National Convention. Another member of the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project is Ahmed Younis, former National Director of the Muslim Public Affairs Committee (MPAC), whose communications director has praised Osama Bin Laden. In July 2008, both ISNA and MPAC sought to prevent the Investigative Project on Terrorism's (IPT) Steven Emerson from speaking on "Foreign Aid and the Fight Against Terrorism and Proliferation."

In addition, the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project leadership panel has 32 other members, including Dennis Ross, Washington Institute for Near East Policy (WINEP) consultant, who is serving as a Middle East advisor for the Barack Obama campaign. The New York Times also reports that the "McCain and Obama campaigns have been briefed on the report's recommendations, and both were receptive, said Mr. Weber and other members of the group."

The report was promoted in a September 24 National Press Club press conference and has been praised by leading foreign policy members of the House of Representatives and Senate who have been briefed on this report.

I have previously summarized some of the key aspects of the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project's report "Changing Course: A New Direction for U.S. Relations with the Muslim World." These points were not mentioned in the New York Times or Associated Press reports that glowingly painted the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project's efforts as "Report Seeks Engagement With Muslims by Diplomacy" and as "US ex-officials want good US relations with Islam."

Major points in the U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project's report include:
-- Rejection of concerns about "Islamism" as an ideology (page 51)
-- Tolerance of Sharia-based governments (page 52)
-- Calls for engagement with Iran (pp 4, 48, 44)
-- Calls for America to "assess the value of engagement with political representatives of armed and activist movements" (page 59)
-- Calls for America to consider dialogue with "armed political groups and movements" if they have sufficient public support (pp. 59, 60)
-- Calls for talks with the Muslim Brotherhood (pp. 54, 56, 60, 61)
-- Promotion of the 2005 Organization of the Islamic Conference (OIC) Mecca Declaration (page 53), which calls for "deterrent punishments" against "Islamophobia," and which promotes the Cairo Declaration on Human Rights in Islam that calls for "human rights" based on Islamic Sharia law

Other than an oblique reference to discussions with Iran, such aspects of this report in calling for America's surrender in the war of ideas against Islamic supremacism are not being discussed or reported in the news media. The report is being portrayed as merely a report seeking general "diplomatic engagement" and "major investment in economic development in Muslim countries to create jobs for alienated youth."

This U.S.-Muslim Engagement Project's Report was briefed to House Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Congressman Howard L. Berman, who has reportedly welcomed the report, stating, "This study explores in depth one of the central global challenges of our time: developing harmonious relations between Muslim-majority countries and the West. It offers thoughtful, creative, and multi-faceted proposals for meeting that challenge. Congress should give those proposals the fullest possible consideration."

In addition, this report has been endorsed by Senate Committee on Foreign Relations' Ranking Minority Member Senator Richard G. Lugar, stating, "The Project's report offers a thoughtful analysis of the current state of America's relations with the Muslim world and constructive recommendations on how we can approach this pressing concern in a bipartisan framework." Senator Lugar reportedly "circulated the report to his Senate colleagues."

The growing effort of those appeasing or supporting Islamic supremacism to influence our legislature should be alarming to Americans. This secret invasion extends beyond the growing efforts to infiltrate and influence our homeland security, our military, our law enforcement, and now the growing surrender of our counterterrorism community. In addition to seeking to influence our legislature, Islamic supremacist advocacy and appeaser organizations seek to influence the campaigns of the candidates for the next American presidency as well.

As the Muslim Brotherhood's Mohamed Akram stated in his strategy to infiltrate America, "we must possess a master of the art of 'coalitions,' the art of 'absorption' and the principles of 'cooperation.'" This plan to infiltrate and influence every level of the American federal government is rapidly succeeding.

America Must Win the War of Ideas against Islamic Supremacism

American remains a nation of over 300 million individuals. America is a nation "of the people, by the people, for the people." Let us never forget that this is our country, not just the country of a handful of elected representatives and federal government officials, and not a nation controlled by the whims of the Muslim Brotherhood and other Islamic supremacist groups.

We can win the war of ideas against Islamic supremacism, but not if we refuse to fight, to speak out, to protest, and to demand that our voices are heard. This is our war on Jihad, our war on Islamic supremacism. But no one can win a one-sided battle with their opponents doing most of the fighting.

The Islamic supremacist enemy will tell us not to fight a fight we cannot win, to accept their "changing course" for America, to focus on the goals of "progress" rather than liberty and quality. They will seek to turn us against those who will stand in the way of their "progress." They will not directly ask us to "surrender," but ask us to simply accept the inevitable "change." They will not directly ask us to "submit," but ask us to accept Islamic supremacism as legitimate when it is opposed to equality itself.

Regardless of the words they use, the terms that Islamic supremacists will ultimately call for will be nothing less than... surrender.

Whether individual Americans and individual American leaders choose to surrender or not, the fact remains that America itself is more than its people, more than its geography. America is an idea that embodies the principles of equality and liberty. America can no more be crushed by those on their knees, than it can be crushed by Jihadist bombs. America is what we believe in our hearts, it is the values we hold dear, it is our principles of equality and liberty that generations have given their lives to build and preserve.

We have no choice in fighting this war of ideas against Islamic supremacism. The war against Islamic supremacism is a war that we must win. If we lose, we will lose the identity, the meaning, and the values of America itself.

Fear No Evil.

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Putin's Growing Appetite

2008-10-02T01:50:00.005-05:00

By Dr. Rachel Ehrenfeld

President George W. Bush meeting today (Monday Sept. 29) with Ukraine’s President, aims at strengthening Viktor Yushchenko’s stand against the Kremlin. On the agenda is Russia’s growing threats against and meddling in Ukraine’s domestic politics in effort to derail its pending integration into NATO.

This meeting, as Bush’s condemnation of the Kremlin’s aggression towards its neighbors, and Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice’s fierce criticism of Russia’s war against Georgia, do little to slow Prime Minister and former President Vladimir Putin’s efforts to destabilize Ukraine, corner its food industry’s development and export, and buy a foothold in its major ports.

On September 15, Moscow efforts led to the collapse of Ukraine’s coalition government. This crisis came shortly after the Russian foreign office condemned Ukraine's "unfriendly" policies toward Moscow, especially President Viktor Yushchenko’s latest movement restrictions on Russia’s Black Sea fleet , and his objection to renew the Kremlin's lease of Ukrainian ports. Russia needs these ports to obtain greater access to their shipyards and to the Black Sea.

Russia’s military and political aggression became a cause célèbre in the West. Unnoticed, however, are the activities of the Kremlin’s loyal oligarchs growing control over Ukraine’s ports. Going far beyond energy, the Russian strategy now expands to control over the region’s scarce commodities, including food resources, threatening to leave millions of people cold and starving.

Food shortages and spiraling prices are spurring riots and creating emergencies worldwide, says director general of the Rome-based UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), Jacques Diouf. Over 852 million (above 13%) of the world population is malnourished. Last April, global cereal reserves were already so low; they could feed the world for only 8 to 12 weeks.

The World Bank calls Ukraine “one of the few countries in the world,” capable of significantly increasing net grain exports. Aptly, Kiev decided last April to increase its grain export quotas.

For 69 years, Ukraine was the U.S.S.R. “breadbasket” Until breaking free in 1991 from the Soviet boot, Ukraine supplied over 25% of all the U.S. S. R. agricultural produce; now it’s the world’s 8th largest wheat exporter, and ranks 10th overall for cereals exports.

Ukraine’s government early this year asked the World Bank to facilitate President Viktor Yushchenko’s 2005 plan to double its food production, thus turning it to the “breadbasket of Europe.” The World Bank prepared a special Note: “Competitive Agriculture or State Control: Ukraine’s response to the global food crisis,” concluding, “Ukraine is in a position to make a significant contribution to the international effort to deal with the food crisis.”

Unfortunately, Ukraine’s unstable coalition government almost simultaneously thwarted Yushchenko’s plans with new grain export restrictions costing Ukraine food producers more than $2 billion last year, thus devaluing its entire agro-business industry. This opened the door to the Russians.

In February 2008, according to Ukrainian media reports, Russia’s FedComInvest assumed control of Sumykhimprom, Ukraine’s largest fertilizer manufacturer, whose products are essential to growing healthy crops and increasing Ukraine agricultural yields.

FedComInvest belongs to the leading Russian sulfur supplier, FedCom, which generates some $2 billion in annual sales. It was founded in 1996 by Alexei Fedoricsev, a minor league millionaire, and listed as a major investor in the 2014 Sochi Winter Olympics.

The Sochi Winter Olympics are Putin’s treasured baby. Like the Chinese with the Beijing Olympics, Putin aims through the Sochi Olympics to validate the success of his very own “new Russia.”

With Putin’s ‘encouragement’ Russia’s oligarchs -- the richest, $28 billion worth Rusal chieftain Oleg Deripaska (banned from entering the U.S.), to less known, and other shadowy figures like Fedoricsev, who barely squeaked onto the tail end of a recent Forbes Russia Golden 100 list, with roughly $450 million -- invest heavily in the forthcoming Sochi Olympics, and other related projects.

Meanwhile, Fedorychev’s Russian TransInvestService, another FedCom company, recently obtained a $50 million contract to build the largest Ukrainian container terminal for the Port of Yuzhny, to facilitate food- and fertilizer-shipping to Europe and the Middle East. (The Saudis are becoming major clients.) Ukraine's Transportation and Communications Ministry describes FedComInvest’s activities as “corporate raiding.” Other Russian companies also made huge investments in major Ukraine sea and river ports.

“The Kremlin has established a group of “service oligarchs,” people with shady past, who are ready to use any methods to reach their ends,” states Dr. political science professor Valentin Yakushik at Kiev’s Mogilaynsky Academy. Moreover, Fedorychev allegedly has a criminal record and was on the receiving end of Yukos’ remains after Khodorkovsky’s lynching, according to prominent Russian investigative journalist Yulia Latynina.

Not long ago, Interpol investigated Fedorychev for alleged money laundering and links to notorious international arms/drugs and diamond dealers Leonid Efimovich Minin, now serving time in Italy, and illusive Victor Anatolyevic Bout, who was arrested in Thailand last March on an FBI warrant.

The French newspapers Le Monde, Le Parisien, and Aujourd'hui followed the investigation closely, reported Fedorychev got away due to lack of evidence. Though “Fedorychev’s close associate was indicted” says Inna Weiss at the Central Group of European Political Monitoring. “The publicity led cautious members of Europe's money elite -- notably, late Prince Rainier of Monaco -- to cut business ties with Fedorychev to the minimum.” This, however, did little to stop Putin’s oligarchs from gaining control over strategically important assets in Ukraine and other former Soviet republics, thus threatening the stability of the region and U.S. national security.

Moreover, Putin uses President Bush’s support to Ukraine and Georgia’s fledging democracies as justification and opportunity to further undermine the U.S. influence in the region. Indeed, challenging Putin’s ambitions while defusing the tension in U.S. Russian relations would present a real test to the next U.S. Administration.

Source: Human Events

Pakistan/Intelligence: Islamabad appoints new ISI chief

2008-10-01T00:49:00.001-05:00

Pakistan has replaced the head of its main intelligence service, Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI), the country's premier military spy agency. Lieutenant General Ahmed Shujaa Pasha has been appointed as Director General of the ISI, replacing Nadeem Taj, a Pervez Musharraf loyalist. Prior to this appointment, Pasha was Director of military operations and is considered a key aide to army chief Ashfaq Kayani.

The ISI has been under the US scanner amid growing concerns that it is either turning a blind eye to militants in Pakistan's troubled tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, or worse, even actively sponsoring the rebels.The agency is also suspected of involvement in the July 7 bombing outside India's Embassy in Kabul that killed more than 60 people.

Pakistan/Terrorism: Pakistani Taliban leader reportedly dead

2008-10-01T00:43:00.000-05:00

Baitullah Mehsud, the leader of the Pakistani Taliban, died on Wednesday at about 1 a.m. local time from kidney failure, CNN has reported.

According to the American news network, Mehsud’s death has been confirmed by Pakistani military officials.

Some local media in Pakistan reported about Mehsud’s death while some others said the Taliban were denying it.

Earlier reports raised doubts about his health condition, claiming that the 34-year-old taliban leader was ill and was expected to die within days.

Mehsud, who belongs to the Mehsud tribe in Pakistan’s South Waziristan region, is the commander of the Taliban in Pakistan and has been blamed by the Pakistani authorities for the assassination, last December, of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto.

UNITED STATES: PRESIDENTIAL TRANSITION AND IMPLICATIONS FOR NATIONAL SECURITY IN 2008-2009

2008-10-01T00:36:00.000-05:00

By Raphaël RAMOS,
Director of Production, ESISC

With the nomination of John McCain and Barack Obama by their respective parties, there
begins a highly sensitive period which includes the election and inauguration of the forty-
fourth President of the United States. It comes to an end only when the new administration
will be completely installed. This so-called period of ‘presidential transition’ in fact has a
crucial dimension for the country’s national security, because changes in administration are
traditionally marked by a concomitant slowdown in government activity before the departure
and, at the other end, by the arrival of a great number of officials. Starting with the
inauguration of the new President, several months are generally needed before the incoming
bureaucracy can function in an optimal manner.

History has shown that a number of American Presidents had to deal with major national and
international crises from the very first weeks of their term in office. Without going back as far
as the inauguration of Abraham Lincoln, in the midst of the Civil War, we remember, in
particular, the Bay of Pigs landing that President Kennedy inherited in April 1961, the
bombardment of Cambodia decided by President Richard Nixon in March 1969 and the
deterioration of the situation in Somalia which Bill Clinton faced in May 1993.

Although a tradition of dialogue between the outgoing President and his successor dating
from Harry Truman, as well as various legislative provisions have made improvements to the
situation possible, the transition phase remains characterised by the vulnerability to which it
gives rise for the United States and its interests, above all in time of war.

Hence, given the instability of the present international context and the fact that the summer
phase of the electoral campaign was largely marked by the topic of national security,1 it seems
timely to look closely into the issues of this period which though brief can leave an
irreversible imprint on the term in office of the next occupant of the White House. By means
of various examples, we will present the crucial dimension of presidential transitions before
examining the special sensitivity of the next transition. Finally, we will look into the
arrangements recently made and what should be undertaken in order to improve this
process.

1. A traditionally crucial period

Ever since 1797 when George Washington handed over the powers of the Presidency to John
Adams, the United States has had to deal with this practice that was only codified much
later. Although the transition between the first American President and the man who was at
the time his Vice President took place calmly, that has not always been the case, in particular
when power was handed over between two men who came from different parties. This
practice was improved with Harry Truman and his successors but it remains sensitive as we
can see from the last transition between Bill Clinton and George W. Bush in 2000-2001.

􏰀 Historical examples of transition

It was in fact President Truman who informally instituted the tradition whereby the
outgoing President facilitates the arrival of his successor in his duties, even
when he comes from a different party. On the day after the victory of Dwight
Eisenhower in the elections of November 1952, Truman invited the five-star general to come
and meet him in the White House to ‘discuss the problems relating to the transition
period in order to demonstrate to the world that the nation is united in its fight
for liberty and peace.’ 2 In parallel, the Democratic President asked the federal agencies
reporting to the Executive to keep him informed of the actions they were undertaking to
facilitate the arrival in the White House of the Eisenhower Administration.3 During the
electoral campaign, Harry Truman had already charged the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency)
in 1952 with the task of providing the Presidential candidates with a daily intelligence
briefing similar to what he received every morning. 4

It is not surprising that these initiatives were made by President Truman given the way he
was propelled on April 12, 1945 to the highest post of the American executive branch. Upon
the death of Franklin D. Roosevelt, Truman took over sensitive issues dealing with foreign
policy about which he had not been kept informed. It thus seems obvious that he wanted his
successors not to find themselves in a situation similar to his when he became President of
the United States. Moreover, Truman understood that the first decisions made by
his successor would be taken on the basis of the information and the activities of
his administration and that, for that reason, he should familiarise the entering President
with the ongoing affairs. Furthermore, as he indicated in the telegram he sent to Dwight
Eisenhower, Truman was aware of the imperatives of the Cold War and wanted,
when facing the Soviet Union, to give an image of unity and to assure as well as
possible the continuity of the executive power.

Another interesting example concerns the last Presidential transition made during wartime,
between Lyndon B. Johnson (LBJ) and Richard Nixon in 1968-1969. In the midst of the
Vietnam War, even before the November election, LBJ was the first President to invite the
campaign teams of the two candidates to meetings for the purpose of preparing the
transition. Richard Nixon began to prepare for his possible arrival at the White House as
from the end of the Republican Convention in July 1968 and got ideas from the reports
describing the previous transitions. Less than a month after his election, Nixon had chosen
his main assistants who were charged with the task of helping to run his administration.5 On
the other hand, the selection of the Cabinet took more time, though this did not influence
events since the essential aspects of American policy were formulated from the White House
by the President and his close advisers like Kissinger. The Departments of State and Defense,
as well as their bosses, were only going to play an administrative role. This special manner of
operation made it possible to limit any slowdown due to change of administration. This was
translated into action by the ability of the White House to lead, as from the month of March
1969, a campaign of air bombardment against Cambodia.

􏰀 Transition of 2000-2001

In July 2004, the publication of the works of the 9/11 Commission made it possible to shed
light on the shortcomings of the process of transition and their consequences for
the level of preparation of the incoming administration. In the case of the period
2000-2001, the hesitation which typically exists was accentuated by the disputed
electoral results in Florida, thereby delaying the process by more than one
month and, as the 9/11 Commission Report stated, reducing ‘by half the normal period of
transition.’ 6 Although the election took place on November 7, 2000, it was only on December
13 that the Democratic candidate Al Gore accepted his defeat. While ad hoc measures were
taken by the team of George W. Bush right from the announcement of the Florida results on
November 26, the take-over of the premises put at the disposal of the incoming
administration only occurred the day after the speech by the Democratic candidate. Thus, Mr
Bush had just five weeks to put his team in place before his inauguration.7

According to all the evidence, these circumstances ‘hindered the new administration in
identifying, recruiting, screening and confirming its principal staff members
by the Senate.’8 Experience and continuity were clearly favoured. Thus, apart from Vice
President Dick Cheney, Donald Rumsfeld, Colin Powell and Norman Mineta were chosen to
occupy the leading posts. The fact that all three of them had already faced confirmation
hearings in the Senate and security clearance had undeniably favoured their
designation. In parallel, Mr Bush’s transition team, led by Mr Cheney, chose to keep in
their posts a certain number of high officials. We think in particular of the Director of the
CIA George Tenet and Richard Clarke, who was responsible for counter-terrorism on the
National Security Council (NSC) since 1992. General Shelton, Chairman of the Joint Chief of
Staff, held onto his duties at the head of the American Armed Forces until September 30,
2001.

However, these efforts aimed at favouring continuity in the transition came up against the
realities of administrative slowness. Thus, it took more than six months for the
assistants of Colin Powell at the State Department to complete the long process
which preceded their taking up their duties.9 On the eve of September 11, 2001, only
227 of the 508 posts to be filled by the Presidency had an occupant. Out of this
number, 106 persons occupied their positions for les than eight weeks.10 The most telling
example is that of Robert Mueller who took over as the head of the FBI (Federal Bureau of
Investigation) only one week before the attacks on New York and Washington. Succeeding
Louis Freeh, whose departure in the summer of 2001 had been anticipated long before, Mr.
Mueller was only named on July 5 and officially became the Director of the Bureau only on
September 4, 2001. As Michael Chertoff, the present Secretary of Homeland Security
emphasizes, ‘we lived through September 11th with many posts vacant. This was not a very
responsible way to deal with the threats that we were later confronted with.’ 11

2. A unique combination of threats and vulnerabilities

These words by Michael Chertoff are entirely appropriate to the period ahead due to a
particularly sensitive international setting and a national security apparatus that was largely
reformed by the Bush Administration, and for whom the handover of power between the two
administrations will be a first.

􏰀 A particularly sensitive security context

The period of presidential transition of 2008-2009 is the first since 9/11. It should be unique
due to the variety and quantity of threats facing the United States. According to a report
of the Department of Homeland Security, vulnerability will be greatest ‘30 days before, (…),
and up to six months after the change of administration.’ 12 Concerning the national
security, three categories of risks can be distinguished.

First of all, this change of administration comes during a time of war, since the American
Army has in fact been engaged in Afghanistan since October 2001 and in Iraq since March
2003. This is the first time in forty years and the handover of powers between LBJ and
Richard Nixon that a President will be inaugurated during a war. Unlike 1968-1969, the
American Armed Forces are presently deployed in two different operational theatres. The
United States has in fact slightly more than 140,000 men in Iraq and around 34,000 in
Afghanistan.13 The maintenance of these force levels requires on the part of the Pentagon
leadership an irreproachable management which cannot allow itself to be disturbed by a
Presidential transition. Moreover, the initiatives concerning the Transformation of American
Armed Forces14 presently under way also require that continuity be maintained during the
change in administration.15 For Secretary of Defense Robert Gates, whose career within the
American national security apparatus goes back to the 1960s, this period remains
problematic. According to Mr. Gates, this process has ‘deteriorated’ over the course of the
last twenty-five years and it takes more and more time for new teams to be put in place at the
Pentagon.16

Next, everyone is aware that the American presidential election is coming in a particularly
sensitive international setting that is marked by the development of regional threats.
Quite obviously one thinks of Iran and North Korea, which could seek to take advantage of
the situation. An increase in tensions has also been seen between Washington and certain
capitals of Latin America such as Caracas and La Paz.17 Moreover, the crisis that took
place in August between Russia and Georgia illustrates perfectly the
vulnerability of the American authorities in a period of presidential transition.
While the initiative for these disturbances may be traced back to Georgia and not to Russia,
Moscow has skillfully exploited the context and limited margin of maneuver of a Bush
administration that is on its way out. It is not improbable that the powerlessness of the
White House reinforced the determination of the Kremlin to adopt a hard line with
regard to the West. One may wonder over the manner in which events would have developed
had such a crisis taken place at the end of December, when the teams at the White House and
the Pentagon are busy preparing to move out.

Finally, we cannot avoid the question of terrorism. Al-Qaeda and its associates have in
fact often used elections and periods of transition to carry out attacks. We think
back over the attacks in Madrid on March 11, 2004 which had an impact on the Spanish
legislative elections scheduled several days later. Similarly, on June 29 and 30, 2007, i.e., just
five days after Gordon Brown took over as Prime Minister, the United Kingdom was
subjected to many attacks in London and in Glasgow. While in the case of Spain, the
relationship between the elections and the attacks is incontestable, doubts continue over the
link between Mr. Brown’s accession and the three attacks. These precedents nonetheless
indicate that one should take seriously the risk both to the United States and to its overseas
interests. The U.S. Ambassador in Yemen was recently targeted by an attack prepared by the
local branch of al-Qaeda.18 A highly placed official in the Department of Homeland Security
admits that ‘major terrorist attacks both here and abroad are often committed shortly
before or after national elections.’ 19 As regards precise threats, the American intelligence
community believes that ‘al-Qaeda is going to increase the frequency, the sophistication, the
opportunism and the anti-Western character of its propaganda to the extent that the
presidential election in the United States draws near.’ 20

􏰀 A national security apparatus that has been largely updated

The reach of threats which have been mentioned is enhanced by the absence of experience
with respect to presidential transition on the part of the American bureaucracy that has been
reorganised during the two terms of Mr. Bush and for which this handover of power will thus
be a first. We are thinking in particular of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), ODNI (Office of the Director of National Intelligence) and the NCTC (National
Counterterrorism Center).

The most worrisome case is without doubt that of the Department of Homeland Security.
Created in November 2002 by the Homeland Security Act of 2002, the DHS supervises and
coordinates the work of twenty-two federal agencies including Customs, the Coast Guard, the
Secret Service and FEMA (Federal Emergency Management Agency) whose activities are
linked to the security of national territory. It employs around 200,000 persons. The creation
of this Department involved the greatest bureaucratic reorganisation that the United
States has known since the creation of the Department of Defense in 1947. This
Presidential transition will thus be the first for this Department. It will be all the more
sensitive since, according to a Congressional report, ‘one of the recurrent problems
[DHS] is the over-politicisation of the highest ranks of its leadership.’21. This
means that a excessively large part of the managers of this structure is subjected to the
uncertainties of political change. For example, out of the ten main directors of FEMA, only
two are presently career civil servants.22 A report prepared by a private consulting company
estimates at 11% the ‘losses of leadership’ which the DHS will face during the transition of
2008-2009. 23

The problems are similar for the two other creations of the Bush administration - the ODNI
and the NCTC. The first is responsible for coordinating the activities of the American
intelligence community and was created in 2004 in the context of the most important reform
of the intelligence services since the creation of the CIA (Central Intelligence Agency) in 1947.
The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act of 2004 (IRTPA) 24 reorganised the
operation of sixteen intelligence agencies around a Director of National Intelligence (DNI)
who is responsible for setting the objectives and the priorities in the domains of collecting,
processing, analysing and disseminating intelligence. The key figure in this set-up, the DNI,
is named by the President and is assisted by the ODNI, whose composition will likely be
modified by the next administration. Nonetheless, Mike McConnell, the current Director of
National Intelligence, has let it be known that he is prepared to keep his post for six months
following the inauguration of the next President in order to facilitate the transition.

In order to strengthen the efforts in the domain of counter-terrorism, the IRTPA also created
the NCTC to analyse and bring together all the intelligence that the United States has in the
area of terrorism. Its Director is also named by the President and reports both to the White
House and to the ODNI. This makes it a central element in the U.S. counter-terrorism efforts
which cannot be allowed to slow down its operations during such a sensitive period.

3. The limits of American vulnerability

The considerations and the risks which we have just mentioned have certainly been taken
into account in Washington, where a series of arrangements have been put in place by the
Bush administration. On this question, the debate is prolific and many recommendations
have been presented in order to facilitate the handover of power between the two Presidents.

􏰀 Arrangements intended to reduce the risks linked to the transition

The problems of transitions are nothing new for the American authorities who have always
looked for solutions to improve this process. One example in this context is the move forward
of the inauguration date of the new President from March 4 to January 20 by ratification of
the twentieth amendment in 1933.26 Similarly, President Kennedy had the Presidential
Transition Act of 1963 passed, permitting the elected candidate and his assistants to receive
government funds and premises in order to prepare to bring in their new administration in
the best circumstances.27

As regards the transition of 2008-2009, many measures have been taken to limit the period
of inertia which characterises the handover of power. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates and
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen have respectively asked a group of
civilians and a group of officers to prepare the Pentagon for the change of administration.
According to a memo of its president John Hamre, the Defense Policy Board identified
a certain number of points on which the new team in charge of the Department
of Defense should concentrate so as to be able to be effective from the moment
they take over their duties. On the military side, a transition team was set up within the
Joint Chiefs of Staff.28 Furthermore, in order to avoid high vacancy rates at the level of
deputy secretaries which, according to him often are higher than20% at the start of a new
term, Mr. Gates has enjoined the main civilian managers to be prepared to keep
their posts until their successor has been confirmed by the Senate. The objective
for the successor of Donald Rumsfeld is to avoid ‘having a lot of empty chairs on the civilian
side’29 during a war.

Under the direction of Michael Chertoff, the Department of Homeland Security has also
sought to anticipate the problems linked to this period by creating a working group which
presented its recommendations last January.30 A plan developed on the basis of these
proposals is supposed to be presented in October. Meanwhile, the DHS has
organised many conferences and exercises since February. The order of succession of
the Department was also reorganised to limit the ascendance of the holders of political
functions. In addition, twenty-five key posts were identified and high career civil
servants have been named to ensure the interim management.31 Thus, Nancy
Ward, who is responsible for the FEMA operation in Oakland, California, was chosen to
direct the federal agency for managing emergency situations until the person appointed by
the next President takes up his duties.32

􏰀 What remains to be done

The various published reports on the issues of the presidential transition, as well as the
interest shown by the press have made it possible to open a veritable debate around these questions. In the op-ed page of the Washington Post, Richard Armitage, the former Deputy
Secretary of State under Colin Powell and Michèle A. Flournoy, the former Assistant
Secretary of Defense in the Clinton Administration, call for the emergence of a
‘bipartisan consensus to put in place a process of accelerated screening and
confirmation for the 40 or 50 main members of the new President’s national
security team.’ 33 The authors also seek the commitment of the FBI and of the outgoing
administration. In a number of hearings by the appropriate Senate committees, the persons
named have had in fact to fill out more than sixty pages of forms and are subjected to
thorough verifications carried out by the FBI. They must also mention the scholarly
establishments in which they were enrolled and explain all their sojourns abroad, including
in Canada and Mexico, over the course of the past fifteen years.34

In parallel, Jamie Gorelick and Slade Gordon, two former members of the 9/11 Commission,
also came out in favour of drastic changes. They wanted first of all that the candidates be
given access not only to intelligence briefings but to the main dossiers and programmes
relating to national security. The authors then recommend that the candidates
provide, even before the election, the names of those whom they intend to
nominate in order that the competent authorities such as the FBI be able to
begin the investigations. The objective is that with the support of Congress, which would
be committed to organise the hearings of the nominees as from the very start of
the month of January, to ensure that the main posts can be filled from the day after the
inauguration of the new President. The two former members of the 9/11 Commission believe
that the persons put forward to perform the functions of director of an agency should, from
the day after the election, meet with those whom they will succeed in order to get used to
their new post under the best possible conditions.35

The two candidates in the presidential election have also made arrangements to anticipate
the presidential transition. Since the month of July, Barack Obama has put in place a team
charged with the task of planning the activities of this period should the Senator from Illinois
be elected on November 4.36 John McCain did the same in September when he entrusted the
preparation for his possible entrance into the White House to William E. Timmons, a former
member of the transition teams of Ronald Reagan in 1980 and of George W. Bush in 200037.
Nonetheless we note that the two candidates, whose arrangements with regard
to this matter have nothing innovative about them, do not seem to accord to the
issues relating to presidential transition an attention appropriate to what is at
stake. It even appears that the decisions taken by the two campaigns on this question have
been exploited for political ends. Right after the announcement of the Obama team, the
Republicans criticised the Democratic candidate for the arrogance of his decision. Similarly,
there are good chances that the lobbyist past of Mr. Timmons will be used by the team of the
Senator from Illinois to attack his counterpart from Arizona.

4. Conclusion

The first presidential transition after 9/11 constitutes a major challenge for the
entire government apparatus of the American state. The combination of
external and domestic threats, as well as the increased vulnerability of a part of
the administration which never experienced this process renders this period
particularly sensitive.

Nonetheless, it appears that the public debate which opened on these questions
made it possible for the various actors of this process to take measures in order
to facilitate the change of administration.

While an incident can always arise before or after the election, the main issue
for the incoming administration is to arrive on the day after the inauguration of
January 20 ready to assume its duties. For that to happen President Bush and
his successor must work together from the day after the election of November 4.
This cooperation will be essential to the preparation of the team of the next
occupant of the White House. While one may believe that the incoming
President will have to make good use of the eleven weeks before his taking up
his duties, much will depend on the good will of the administration in office. It
seems that President Bush is aware of this and will try to put his successor in
the best arrangements, because he certainly knows that an incident occurring
very early in the term of a new President can also tarnish his legacy.

Finally, the sheer weight of the process of screening and confirmation puts
forward the question of the politicisation of some functions of the American
government. Though from a democratic point of view the virtues of this system
are incontestable – France has even taken inspiration from it for its
constitutional reform – these procedures do not seem to be well suited to the
demands of the modern world and to the immediacy of the threats. The four
years of the term of a President of the United States is one of the shortest among
the Western democracies and it is no longer acceptable today that a department
like the Pentagon is not able to function in optimal manner during the first six
months of the new administration. Although awareness of these problems and
the ad hoc measures taken by each department are going to facilitate the next
transition, the next administration and the Congress should reflect deeply to ensure that long-lasting legislative measures are taken.

Dahlan: Iran, Qatar supported Hamas during Gaza 'coup'

2007-06-27T14:05:00.000-05:00

Khaled Abu Toameh

Former Fatah security chief Muhammed Dahlan said Wednesday that he was not surprised by Hamas's "coup" in the Gaza Strip and that he had warned different parties about the Islamic movement's plans.

He also accused Iran and Qatar of providing Hamas with hundreds of millions of dollars.

Dahlan, who is a Fatah member of the Palestinian Legislative Council, has been accused by Hamas of conspiring with the US and Israel to remove the Hamas-led government from power. He is also under attack from some Fatah leaders and activists who hold him responsible for the Hamas takeover of the Gaza Strip.

His remarks came amid growing pressure on Palestinian Authority Chairman Mahmoud Abbas to negotiate with Hamas a solution to the current crisis.

Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia have advised Abbas to resume talks with Hamas leaders over the formation of a new "unity" government, a top PA official in Ramallah said. He told The Jerusalem Post that Abbas's position remained that there would be no dialogue with Hamas until it apologized for what it did in the Gaza Strip and withdrew its men from all the offices and security headquarters which they occupied.

Hamas, for its part, welcomed Arab calls for a dialogue with Fatah, but said it would not accept pre-conditions. Hamas spokesman Ayman Abu Taha said that in any case his movement was not keen on talking to a "bunch of murderers" in Fatah.

"I was not surprised by the coup in the Gaza Strip," Dahlan said. "I knew about Hamas's plans and I told different parties about this so we could try to thwart them."

Asked why the Fatah-controlled security forces were defeated by Hamas, Dahlan said: "The Palestinian security establishment was never prepared for internal fighting. Since the beginning of the intifada in 2000 our security forces faced systematic destruction by Israel. The Israelis destroyed 280 security installations in the past seven years and Hamas continued to destroy security installations before they launched their coup."

Dahlan pointed out that Hamas militiamen had raided the central prison in Gaza City and freed some murderers. "They claim that they have just liberated the Gaza Strip for the second time [after Israeli disengagement]," he said. "The Hamas men have Fatah blood on their hands. They forgot that Fatah had protected them when they were being chased by Israel."

Dahlan denied that he had played any role in the Hamas-Fatah clashes that preceded the takeover, saying he had been abroad for nearly two months for surgery. "I was not in charge of security in the Gaza Strip," he explained. "I was out of the country because I had to undergo surgery. This is not a personal matter because Hamas has been targeting our people and institutions over the past three years."

Dahlan lashed out at Qatar and Iran, accusing each country of giving Hamas $400 million. He also accused Qatar of turning its Al-Jazeera TV network into an organ for the Muslim Brotherhood and Hamas.

"For decades, Iran never paid the Palestinians one dollar," he said. "But they gave Hamas $400 million that went to Hamas's bank accounts and not to the Palestinian people. Qatar also gave Hamas another $400 million that were used to slaughter Palestinians."

Dahlan claimed that Iran had been training many Hamas militiamen. "Our people are the victims of regional and international meddling in our affairs," he said.

He also claimed that Hamas was established with the help and support of Israel so that its members could fight against the PLO and Fatah. "Everyone knows that Israel established Hamas back then so that it could fight the PLO," he said. "When Hamas members were arrested back then for possession of weapons, they used to tell the Israelis that the guns were supposed to be used only against Communists and secular Palestinians."

Dahlan ruled out the possibility that Fatah and Hamas would patch up their differences through dialogue. "I don't believe that this is the appropriate time to talk about the resumption of dialogue with Hamas," he said.

"President Abbas does not support taking to these murderers. Besides, Hamas is continuing to hold 120 Fatah members who were kidnapped in the past few weeks. We will resort to all methods to prevent Hamas from perpetrating similar crimes in the West Bank."

In another development, Abbas decided on Wednesday to fire Gen. Musbah al-Buhaisi, commander of the PA Presidential Guard in the southern Gaza Strip, for surrendering to Hamas.

Abbas's office said the decision was taken following recommendations by the special commission of inquiry that was established last week to look into the reasons behind Fatah's defeat. It said Buhaisi was the highest-ranking security official to be dismissed since the Hamas takeover. Buhaisi and many other top security officers fled to Ramallah after Hamas took control over the Gaza Strip two weeks ago.

jpost

DNI's 100 day plan

2007-04-27T13:33:00.000-05:00

By Michael Jacobson

In mid-April, nearly two months into his tenure as the nation's second Director of National Intelligence (DNI), Michael McConnell announced a "100 day plan," outlining what he hopes to accomplish during this period. McConnell stated that his plan to improve the “integration and collaboration” of the US Intelligence Community (IC) marks the “next stage in intelligence reform.”

McConnell's 100 day plan – which is intended to build on the October 2005 National Intelligence Strategy released by John Negroponte, McConnell’s predecessor -- focuses on transforming the IC in six key areas. These include: creating a culture of collaboration, accelerating information sharing, improving collection and analysis on the hardest targets, and modernizing the IC’s security and financial practices. McConnell also reorganized his office to create a directorate to manage the IC’s acquisition of new technologies.

To succeed in achieving the ambitious goals laid out in his 100 day plan, McConnell will have to be more aggressive in this role than his predecessor. There are promising signs in this regard. McConnell complained in a recent speech about his insufficient authorities, pointing out that he does not have direct power to hire or fire 15 of the 16 IC heads, as they are part of Cabinet level departments. In fact, McConnell’s 100 day plan calls for the DNI’s duties to be clarified and aligned, and notes that “more is required to realize fully the intended benefits.”

McConnell cannot wait though for additional authorities before moving to take strong action. While McConnell may regard his powers as insufficient, the reality is that the position comes with considerable authority. The Intelligence Reform and Terrorism and Prevention Act of 2004, which created the DNI, imbued the position with significant control over the IC’s budget, personnel, tasking, and acquisition. The DNI plays a particularly important role in the budgetary arena, where he has the power to “develop and determine” the IC budget. The DNI can also reprogram or transfer funds and personnel within the IC without the consent of the affected agencies (with certain limitations). In addition, the DNI can use his control over IC funds as leverage, as he can withhold money from IC agencies should the need arise. The statute also explicitly gives the DNI responsibility for managing the IC’s tasking, and assigns the DNI a key role in all IC acquisitions.

While the issue of DNI authorities is important, perhaps an even more significant issue for McConnell is that he does not have a deputy in place. This position has been vacant for nearly a year, since General Hayden vacated the slot to become the head of the CIA. As the DNI, McConnell has two primary functions: leading the IC and serving as the President’s chief intelligence advisor. As McConnell noted at a recent press conference, he is spending hours every day fulfilling the latter role – particularly in preparing for and participating in the morning intelligence briefing with the President. This leaves him with far too little time to focus on leading the IC – the primary reason the DNI position was created. A strong deputy could play an important role in managing the IC and in implementing the DNI’s strategic vision of transformation. The DNI cannot adequately perform both functions on his own.

While the success of McConnell’s 100 day plan is important to his ultimate record as the DNI, more critical is the tone he sets during this period. Taking strong actions from the outset will go a long way towards establishing the DNI’s control over the IC agencies. Without an aggressive approach, the DNI will be hard pressed to make the changes that the IC needs.

counterterrorismblog.org

France to pullout troops from Afghanistan

2007-04-27T13:28:00.000-05:00

PARIS - France does not plan to stay in Afghanistan, Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said Friday, hours before a deadline for a pullout of French troops in exchange for the release of two hostages.

There is no plan to continue occupying a country in the long term,’ said Douste-Blazy. ‘It goes against France’s values of respect for sovereignty, national independence and territorial integrity.’

France has contributed 1,000 men to the NATO-led force in Afghanistan, as well as Rafale fighter jets in support of the international force battling a Taleban insurrection.

Taleban militants are holding two aid workers for the French nongovernment organisation Terre d’Enfance (A World For Our Children), who went missing on April 3 with three of their Afghan staff.

The deadline for Taleban demands to be met in exchange for the release of two French hostages will expire Saturday, not Friday as originally thought, Taleban spokesman Yousuf Ahmadi told AFP.

Unless its demands are met, the Taleban, which has beheaded several of its captives, has said ‘the position of Islamic Emirate (the Taleban) about foreign prisoners... (will) soon be applied.’

‘We are doing everything in Kabul and Paris to being them home soon,’ Douste-Blazy said, adding that he had ‘taken note’ of a Taleban statement on Thursday saying the hostages were in good health.

AFP

US: Iran could produce nuke weapon within 3 years

2007-04-27T13:27:00.001-05:00

Iran has overcome technical difficulties in its uranium enrichment plan and may be able develop a single nuclear weapon within three years, American sources said on Friday morning.

According to an intelligence report cited by CBS, US officials have warned that Iran could have enough bomb-grade material to produce such a weapon before the previously estimated 1015.

"I think Iran can get enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon sooner than that," leading expert David Albright told CBS. "I think the 2015 number reflects too much skepticism about Iran's technical capabilities, and they are making progress."

jpost

Saudis arrest 172 militants in anti-terror sweep

2007-04-27T13:26:00.001-05:00

Saudi police have arrested 172 militants and seized large quantities of arms and money in anti-terror sweep, a Saudi state TV channel reported Friday.

The channel Ekbariya quoted the Interior Ministry as saying the detained militants were plotting to attack the country's oil fields.

Iraq: US nabs suspected Iranian weapon smugglers

2007-04-27T13:24:00.000-05:00

US troops detained seven suspected members of a cell smuggling sophisticated roadside bombs from Iran during a raid Friday in a Shi'ite militia stronghold in Baghdad, the military said.

The raid was targeting a network of militants helping to bring sophisticated weapons from Iran to Iraq, including so-called explosively formed "penetrators," or EFPs, which are capable of piercing armored vehicles, according to a statement.

The cell also was smuggling militants from Iraq to Iran for terrorist training and has ties to a kidnapping network that conducts attacks within Iraq, the military said.

"Individuals coming into Iraq from other countries for the purpose of endangering Iraqi civilians and disrupting security won't be tolerated," military spokesman Lt. Col. Christopher Garver said in the statement.

In January, US officials said at least 170 U.S. soldiers had been killed by EFPs since 2004.

AP

Israel may get F-22s if nation at risk

2007-04-27T01:15:00.000-05:00

The United States would be inclined to allow the sale of advanced stealth F-22 fighter jets to the Israeli Air Force if the State of Israel's security was in jeopardy, former US Secretary of Defense William S. Cohen told The Jerusalem Post Thursday night.

On a 24-hour visit to Israel, Cohen, who served as defense chief under President Bill Clinton from 1996 until 2000, met on Thursday with Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, Defense Minister Amir Peretz and Foreign Minister Tzipi Livni for talks on the looming Iranian nuclear threat and other regional issues.

Cohen currently heads the Cohen Group, which provides business consulting services and advice on tactical and strategic opportunities around the globe.

The Post reported last week that the Air Force has expressed newfound interest in receiving the F-22 - a US-developed fifth generation stealth fighter jet - and has requested that the Defense Ministry present the request on its behalf to the Pentagon. Defense officials have asked to receive the jet so Israel can retain its military edge in the region in face of American plans to sell smart bombs to Saudi Arabia.

"There is no stronger relationship than with Israel," Cohen said. "There could be circumstances that that level of technology would be released to Israelis."

While Congress and the Pentagon would be hesitant to release classified technology like the F-22 to Israel, "if it came to a question of Israeli security, I am confident they will come to help."

The F-22 has been forbidden for export by the Pentagon.

Cohen arrived in Israel Wednesday night after visiting a number of Gulf states, including Abu Dhabi and Dubai, as well as Jordan. Cohen said that during his talks with leaders in those counties he heard "sentiments" acknowledging that Iran was the greatest threat to stability in the Middle East and no longer Israel. Cohen visited Israel as secretary of defense in 2000.

"They understand that Iran is a threat to them all," he said. "There is a convergence of interest evolving and you can find that Israel is not being seen as the adversary."

With Iran funding Hamas in the Gaza Strip, Hizbullah in Lebanon and Syria, there was a need to focus on the "center" when looking to find the catalyst for instability in the Middle East, Cohen said.

"The prospect of Iran getting nuclear weapons changes the dynamics in the region with great impact for rest of world," he said. "We try to seek ways that the Gulf states can cooperate with the US. They are not yet ready to announce diplomatic relations with Israel but the sentiment is shifting and they understand that Iran is the major threat to them and not Israel."

jpost

IRAQ: KURDISH GOVERNMENT SIGNS 40M DEAL WITH ITALIAN FIRM

2007-04-27T01:05:00.000-05:00

Erbil, 26 April (AKI) - An Italian company has won a 40 million dollar contract with the Kurdistan regional government for an overhaul of the electricity system in the two main power plants in the region, at Dokan and Darbandikhan. The ministry of electricity has chosen ELC-Electroconsult a global consulting engineering company, for the World Bank-funded scheme. "It is one of the biggest projects of the ministry in recent decades," a spokesman told Adnkronos International (AKI).

He added that at the signing ceremony the minister reaffirmed "the urgent need of Kurdistan for similar investment projects in various sectors but especially in electricity given the major problems the region has in this field."

"He appealed to Italian companies to invest in Kurdistan where the environment is ideal for this sort of activity," the press officer added.

During his recent visit to Italy, the president of the autonomous region of Kurdistan, Massoud Barzani, urged the government to "press Italian firms to promote strategic investment projects in Iraqi Kurdistan" stressing the "willingness of the regional government to provide all the neccessary support to investors."

The two hydroelectric plants of Dokan and Darbandikhan were built by the Russians in the 1950s but in recent years the deterioration of the original strucutre has led to a series of problems.

Electroconsult was established in 1955, with the objective of making available on the international scene the expertise accumulated over the years by two major Italian private firms leading and pioneering since 1930 in the planning, design and construction of hydropower schemes in the Alps mountain range of Northern Italy.

‘Dry run’ attack forces Prince Harry retreat

2007-04-26T21:54:00.000-05:00

Army chiefs fear that a fatal attack on two British soldiers in Iraq last week was a dry run for an attempt on Prince Harry’s life, The Times has learnt.

The attack was made on a type of vehicle that the Prince will use, and took place in a part of the country where he is due to be deployed as early as next month. The two died when their Scimitar reconnaissance vehicle was hit by a roadside bomb – the first time that British soldiers had been killed in a Scimitar as a result of enemy action.

The Army fears that extremists deliberately chose the vehicle knowing that the Prince is a troop leader for a Scimitar-equipped unit.

Prince Harry faces a kidnap threat from insurgents, who have become active this month even within bases used by the British Army in southern Iraq. Security has been tightened at Camp Sparrowhawk, a base in Maysan Province used by reconnaissance units such as Prince Harry’s.

British soldiers are under orders not to walk around the Iraqi-run base for fear of kidnapping, either by insurgents who have infiltrated Iraqi ranks, or by Iraqi soldiers who are tempted by the possibility of ransom.

A British commanding officer at the base also said that insurgents were “trying out new devices” against his troops. He added that his men were often being tracked by militias using mobile phones and by observers on motorbikes.

The eleventh-hour review about sending Prince Harry to the area follows an alarming rise in attacks this year. Of the 17 British personnel to be killed in 2007, 11 died in the last month. Prince Harry, 22, has been trained to take command of four Scimitars when his unit, A Squadron The Blues and Royals, part of the Household Cavalry, is sent to Iraq.

The two soldiers who died in last week’s attack were Corporal Ben Leaning, 24, and Trooper Kristen Turton, 28, both from The Queen’s Royal Lancers. Their bodies were repatriated to Britain yesterday. Another soldier was very seriously wounded.

The attack has also raised further concerns that the presence of Prince Harry might increase the risk of casualties during his six-month deployment.

General Sir Richard Dannatt, the head of the Army who made the decision to send Prince Harry to Iraq after consultation with Buckingham Palace and Clarence House, will make the final judgment. He has about a week to decide whether to stick to his original decision or to keep him at home.

The Ministry of Defence and royal sources said that at present Prince Harry was still bound for Iraq, unless General Dannatt changed his mind.

Defence sources said that every aspect of Prince Harry’s deployment was being reassessed, and that the military and intelligence services in Iraq had been asked urgently to give their views.

They added that General Dannatt wanted to know if the insurgents had acquired a greater capability to attack British troops, if there would be a higher risk of casualties with the Prince serving as an officer, and if security conditions had significantly deteriorated since the earlier decision in February.

One of the key judgments is whether Prince Harry can do the job for which he is trained without putting himself and his men at an unacceptable risk. Defence sources said that the Prince – known in the Army as 2nd Lieutenant (Cornet) Wales – would not be spending all his time in a Scimitar vehicle carrying out operations.

“Like any other officer of his rank, he will also be required to do desk work, either as a watch-keeper or planning missions, so he will spend some of his time back at base anyway,” one source said.

However, the judgment is that there is no point in sending Prince Harry to do a permanent desk job for six months when he has trained to command 11 men as a troop leader in a reconnaissance role.

Even sitting in a base has become risky as every location where British soldiers are serving comes under fire almost daily. “Nowhere is perfectly safe in Iraq,” one defence source admitted.

But the current intelligence judgment is that the insurgents have not acquired a new capability that made it easier for them to target British units, or to close in on Prince Harry’s squadron.

Royal sources made it clear that the final decision was in the hands of the Army. They said that he was still eager to go and that he would be “extremely disappointed” if the decision was reversed.

They dismissed claims from inside the Household Cavalry that he would quit the Army if he was barred from going to Iraq. “Prince Harry is a grown-up and he’ll take whatever the decision is, but he wants to go to Iraq, and to say he would quit the Army if he didn’t is way too strong,” one said.

Friends of the Prince confirmed that he had no intention of resigning his commission.

Defence sources said that the review of the decision would continue “right up until Prince Harry is due to leave for Iraq”.

the times

Somalia says it has defeated insurgents

2007-04-26T11:37:00.000-05:00

MOGADISHU, Somalia - Somalia's prime minister claimed victory Thursday over Islamic insurgents in Mogadishu, where nine days of battles using tanks and artillery left hundreds dead.

Western diplomats were skeptical of the claim. The diplomats, who spoke on condition of anonymity for fear of damaging relations with Somalia's interim government, said the insurgents had suffered many casualties and were running low on ammunition, but were not yet defeated.

Prime Minister Ali Mohamed Gedi said government forces and their Ethiopian allies had captured an insurgent stronghold in the northern part of the capital and that more than 100 fighters had surrendered. He said the city should be secure by Friday.

"We have won the fighting against the insurgents," Gedi told The Associated Press by telephone from Mogadishu, saying that small, mopping-up operations were still under way. "The worst of the fighting in the city is now over."

Machine gun and artillery fire could still be heard in the south of Mogadishu, a coastal city of 2 million people. An estimated 340,000 Somalis have fled the city's worst fighting in 15 years.

"People can now return to their homes," Gedi said. "The rest of the fighting will be over soon. We have captured the stronghold of the terrorists. We will capture any terrorists who have escaped."

The insurgents are linked to the Council of Islamic Courts, which was driven from power in December by Somali and Ethiopian soldiers, accompanied by U.S. special forces. The U.S. has accused the courts of having ties to al-Qaida.

The militants reject any secular government, and have sworn to fight until Somalia becomes an Islamic emirate.

Somalia has been mired in chaos since 1991, when warlords overthrew dictator Mohamed Siad Barre and then battled each other. A national government was established in 2004 with U.N. help, but it has failed to assert any real control.

AP

Jordan: Man arrested for honor killing of sister

2007-04-26T11:29:00.000-05:00

Jordanian authorities arrested a man accused of killing his 30-year-old sister on suspicion that she had a love affair, even though he had earlier signed a pledge to the police that he would not harm her, a police official said Thursday.

The crime, which took place in the eastern industrial city of Zarqa on Wednesday, brings to eight the total number of women killed since January in what is known as "honor crimes."

An average of 20 women are killed by male relatives each year in Jordan, a largely conservative Muslim society where men have the final say in all family matters. Many here consider sex out of wedlock an indelible stain on a family's reputation. Some women in conservative circles of the society have been killed simply for dating.

Iran: US seeks to undermine regime

2007-04-26T11:28:00.000-05:00

A top security official accused the United States Thursday of seeking to undermine Iran's clerical regime by stoking sectarian and ethnic tensions in the country and using newspapers and non-governmental agencies toward that goal.

"A soft threat is the main plan of the US due to its incapability to launch a military operation [against Iran,]" Deputy Interior Minister Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr was quoted as saying by the official IRNA news agency.

Zolqadr, whose comments came in a speech he made in Iran's Kurdistan province, said, "The threat is being implemented through the creation of instability and tension inside Iran as well as fanning ethnic and sectarian differences."

"The threat is being implemented through the creation of instability and tension inside Iran as well as fanning ethnic and sectarian differences," said Zolqadr.

Earlier Thursday, he said that his country would attack Israel and American targets throughout the world if Teheran were attacked over its nuclear program, Israel Radio reported.

According to the official Iranian news agency, the official, who deals with defense issues, said that no American would be safe from Iran's long-range missiles.

"We are prepared to fire tens of thousands of these missiles every day," he said.

He added that the Shahab 3 missiles, which have a range of some 2,000 kilometers, could hit Israel, as well as US Army bases in the Persian Gulf.

Meanwhile, Iran's top nuclear negotiator, Ali Larijani, expressed a more positive view of the situation, saying Thursday morning that Wednesday's talks with EU Foreign Police Chief Javier Solana had brought them closer to "a united view" of how to break a deadlock over Teheran's defiance of a UN Security Council demand to freeze uranium enrichment.

Larijani added that Iran was "aiming to reach out for a common paradigm."

The two reported progress after their six-hour meeting on Wednesday evening, and planned to meet again in two weeks' time.

"We had a good meeting," Solana told reporters. "We cannot make miracles, but we tried to move...the [nuclear] dossier forward."

jpost

US considering athlete exchange program with Iran

2007-04-25T15:40:00.000-05:00

The US Olympic Committee is in preliminary talks with Iran to bring a few of that country's rowers and wrestlers to the United States to train for the 2008 Beijing Games.

The USOC has similar exchange agreements in place with many countries, including China. The US brought Iraqi boxers, wrestlers and archers to the country before the 2004 Olympics and could strike another deal with Iraq for this Olympic cycle.

The USOC is working with the US State Department on the negotiations with Iran, which are "in the very early stages of development," USOC spokesman Darryl Seibel said.

Two Chinese companies deny dealings with Iran, Syria

2007-04-25T07:40:00.000-05:00

BEIJING, China(AFP) - Two Chinese companies, hit with fresh US sanctions aimed at stopping banned military dealings with Iran and Syria, denied Tuesday that they were doing business with the two nations.

"We don't have any military dealings with either Iran or Syria," Wang Qing, secretary of manager of Beijing-based China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation, told AFP.

The Zibo Chemet Equipment Company (China), another company that is targeted by the sanctions announced by Washington on Monday, also denied any involvement.

"We used to have a little business with Iran and Syria, but no more now," said an official surnamed Wang, with the international trading department of the company that is based in the eastern province of Shandong.

The Shanghai Non-Ferrous Metals Pudong Development Trade Company, the last Chinese company on the list, was not immediately available for comment.

The three firms, along with another 11 entities from various countries, were accused by Washington of transferring to or buying from Iran or Syria materials related to cruise or ballistic missile systems or weapons of mass destruction.

Under the Iran and Syria Nonproliferation Act, the 14 are barred from doing business with or receiving aid from any US government agencies for two years.

US State Department officials refused to elaborate on specific charges against any of the named entities, saying this could reveal classified intelligence information.

The two Chinese firms contacted by AFP said they had not been officially informed of the new sanctions.

But Wang from China National Precision Machinery Import and Export Corporation said his company was already the subject of previous sanctions from the United States.

"We have been on their list for a long time. The old sanctions are not over yet. (The sanctions) hurt our business," Wang said.

Two Types of Splinter Groups Break from Moqtada al-Sadr

2007-04-25T07:22:00.000-05:00

By Babak Rahimi

Moqtada al-Sadr
The recent rise of Sadrist splinter groups is a sign of a major shakeup in the Sadrist movement, so far mainly dominated by Moqtada al-Sadr. These splinter groups represent a deep-seated change in the Sadrist faction in both ideological and militaristic terms, which could have major implications for the future of Iraq. The increase in the number of these splinter groups since 2005 is mainly due to al-Sadr's growing relations with the Iraqi government and Tehran. These groups view al-Sadr as a traitor who has forsaken his father's stance against foreign threats for personal and political gain. The participation of al-Sadr's representatives in parliament and his flirtation with Tehran since 2005 have directly led to the creation of two distinct breakaway groups. These two groups are millenarian-cultic in ideology and gang-like in the organizational sense. They are mostly formed in such locations as Baghdad and southern Iraq and are made up of young men who maintain anti-occupation or anti-Sunni sentiments.

The followers of Abu Maha and Ismael al-Zerjawi represent the first type of Sadrist splinter groups (Terrorism Focus, October 10, 2006; Terrorism Monitor, November 16, 2006). They are the most anti-Sunni faction of the Sadrists, who broke away from al-Sadr primarily after the increase of sectarian tensions in 2005 (although some even splintered earlier). These groups can be found largely in Sadr City, where most of the Sunni-Shiite fighting takes place. Al-Zerjawi, also known as Abu Deraa, is best known for his attacks on the Sunni district of Adhamiya in northern Baghdad (Terrorism Monitor, November 16, 2006). Other Mahdi Army officers, like Hassan Salim and Haj Shimel, are veterans of the 2004 Sadrist uprising in Najaf against U.S. forces. These former commanders all maintain anti-occupation and anti-Sunni ideologies with an on-the-field military background.

The second type of splinter group, such as the Hussain Army, led by Mahmud al-Hassani Sarkhi, and the shadowy cult of Dhia Abdul Zahra and his Soldiers of Heaven, is the most cultic and sectarian. As Mahdistic movements, these groups are mainly led by young or middle-aged clerics who seek to overcome any form of Shiite orthodoxy, with claims to worldly power through military force. The origin of these groups dates back to the late 1990s after the death of Moqtada's father, Ayatollah Sadeq al-Sadr, who is believed to have been the most perfect representative of the Hidden Imam on earth. The bases of these groups are primarily located in southern cities such as Karbala and Basra, which have long histories of millenarian-mystical movements with anti-establishment ideologies. They represent the most anti-Iranian and Arab nationalistic currents in the Sadrist splinter groups as they vie for followers among both the tribal and urban population of southern Iraq. It is interesting to note that Sarkhi has also found followers in Iran, despite his anti-Iranianism. The conservative clerical establishment in Iran, however, identifies Sarkhi as a false representative of the Mahdi and even as an Israeli agent (Baztab, May 17, 2006).

The implication of the growing rise of these movements is complicated. First and foremost, these splinter groups can cause major instability in the Sadrist movement that is being gradually pacified by the Najaf clerical establishment. As members of the Mahdi Army break ranks and join these new groups, al-Sadr begins to lose more control of his followers and lessens the prospect of containing his movement within the boundaries of the Iraqi political process. Second, these groups can also unleash a major attack on the Shiite orthodoxy in Najaf, creating new cultic and sectarian movements in the Shiite community of Iraq that could lead to a new religious civil war.

The Najaf clerical establishment will most certainly play a major role in quashing these groups, as it did in January when, on the eve of one of the holiest days in the Shiite calendar, Ashura, the followers of Zahra were crushed by Iraqi and U.S. forces, tipped off by Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani's informants who had infiltrated the group (author interview with a seminary student in Qom, January 29). The key is to recognize that this new phenomenon is an internal Shiite problem and that the clerical establishment in Najaf is best prepared to match the rise of these splinter groups.

Mapping the electronic jihad

2007-04-25T07:21:00.001-05:00

In the wake of the US-led invasion of Afghanistan, as al-Qaida and other jihadist groups lost their physical center, they turned to the internet to provide a virtual hub of communications, coordination, exchange and outreach. Simultaneously, a wave of radicalism surged through the Muslim world. Those swept up by it searched for portals into the world of radical Islam. The internet provided the access they sought. From RSIS.

By Rebecca Givner-Forbes and Clay Shwery for RSIS (25/04/07)

Jihadists stoked this support from hideouts and battlegrounds, flooding newly-created web forums with propaganda, statements, interviews and news from the field. What arose was an online jihadi presence, dynamic and energetic, which served to fill part of the gap left by the loss of a physical centre and to satisfy the new requirements of the burgeoning worldwide ideological movement.

A small, exclusive group of Arabic-language websites now forms the core of this virtual community. These forums serve as the point of interaction for active members and passive supporters worldwide. A crucial sense of community is fostered within these spaces, with members signing on daily to discuss the ongoing trials and tribulations of the international Jihad, develop consensus on current events, engage in theological debates, and even plan hypothetical attacks. This presence, dubbed "the Electronic Jihad" by its members, is fast coalescing into a virtual community of believers, steadily growing in strength, influence, and technological sophistication, and now proving as indispensable to the global jihadi movement as are guns and bombs.

While it was possible to identify this community in virtual space, the physical distribution of its membership remained a mystery. Some analysts speculated that the community was likely concentrated in European countries, where there are large Muslim communities and high internet penetration. Others pointed to the religiously conservative but technologically modern Persian Gulf states. Meanwhile, content analysis hinted at the possibility of a far-flung global distribution of membership. But speculation and content analysis had extensive limitations, and hard data on the geographic distribution of jihadi website visitors remained elusive.

A new, publicly available online tool now allows for a better assessment of where the members of this virtual jihadi community are physically located. This tool - the traffic-tracking website www.alexa.com - extrapolates from a smaller sample a general approximation of the distribution of the visitors to a given website. Running this tool against the URLs of the primary websites of the Electronic Jihad provides a basic breakdown of their traffic.
Debunking old theories

Analysis performed using alexa.com debunks previous theories. It shows that the bulk of visits to jihadi websites come from the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) – not the Diaspora communities of Europe. Nor are they significantly concentrated in the Persian Gulf states. However, the data also show that, though the majority may be located in the MENA region, at least forty countries on every inhabited continent have some representation in this truly global virtual community.

In an analysis of 10 of the most influential and important jihadi web forums, we observed that 78.1 percent of visits came from Middle Eastern and North African countries. Visits from nations in the Americas were at a distant second, at around 5.9 percent. Visits originating in European countries made up 4.8 percent of the total. Only 1.4 percent of visits to jihadi websites came from East Asia. Roughly 1.5 percent came from Pakistan, and another 1 percent from Australia (the remaining came from countries whose visit numbers on each site were too small to produce data in the alexa.com program).
text

Because data were unavailable for a significant portion of the traffic (see text box), this picture of distribution represents only a rough approximation. Still, it is more information than has been available previously, when analysis of the visitors to a given website was a painstaking matter of mining content for colloquialisms specific to the dialects of certain regions, or references to specific locations, currencies, or commercial products – a process which failed to yield enough data for an overview of distribution. The data gleaned from the Alexa analysis, rough though it is, lends some contour to the fuzzy image of this mysterious community, even if it cannot provide a precise picture.

In addition to analyzing the distribution of extremist website traffic, we also studied the relative user activity for individual countries. To do so, we calculated an estimate of the total number of unique visitors per country for each website. Numbers of visits to different websites were summed up by country to obtain a number of total visits to all the included extremist websites for each country. (Because unique users to one website could access multiple included sites, this activity metric is a measurement of visits, not visitors). We divided each number by the total amount of Internet users for the same country, in order to obtain that country's measure of activity. This measurement of activity is presented as number of visits to extremist websites per hundred users, or visits/100 users. (The calculation of this activity metric relies on estimated Internet populations of different countries, and because of this our presented activity measurements should be treated as estimations.)
Intensity of users

The results of these measurements were illuminating. The Palestinian Territories displayed an activity level of 15.72 visits per 100 users. This level of activity is extraordinarily high; no other country exhibited a level higher than 11 percent of this amount. This finding is startling given that the Palestinian Territories lack an established Salafi-Jihadi organization.

The activity measurements for most MENA countries were high. Only Israel, Libya and Turkey exhibited activity levels of less than .1 visits/100 users (or 1 visit per 1,000 users). For comparison, this threshold of 1 visit per 1,000 users was broken only once by a country outside the MENA region (in Panama, which exhibited 2.2 hits per 1,000 users).

In addition to the Palestinian Territories, high activity measurements were found in Jordan (1.72 visits/100 users), Qatar (1.05 visits/100 users), Kuwait (1.02 visits/100 users), Bahrain (.88 visits/100 users), Saudi Arabia (.65 visits/100 users), United Arab Emirates (.59 visits/100 users), Yemen (.51 visits/100 users) and Algeria (.48 visits/100 users).

The Palestinian Territories also topped the list in terms of absolute number of visits, in spite of their small population and relatively low Internet penetration. Saudi Arabia, Egypt, the United Arab Emirates and Jordan follow the Palestinian Territories in contributing the most visits to the websites analyzed. In East Asia, Indonesia, followed by Malaysia, has the most visitors to jihadist sites, followed by China and Japan. The US and the UK both showed significant traffic for non-Muslim countries, comprising 3.97 percent and .97 percent, respectively, of total traffic to extremist websites.

The near exclusive use of the Arabic language in these significant jihadi websites likely accounts for the concentration of activity in the Middle East and North Africa. But with a reach to more than 40 countries, the virtual community within these ten influential sites assumes a global significance. The international jihadi movement's use of the internet to fuel the exchange of ideological expansion and its corresponding influx of support will increase the vulnerability of many countries to the appeal of extremism.

Hezbollah Training in North Korea

2007-04-25T07:18:00.000-05:00

Hezbollah is currently re-constituting its resources with support from Iran and North Korea.

According to security service sources in Lebanon, Hezbollah’s secretary-general, Hassan Nasrallah, paid a four-day visit to Tehran starting on April 2. He was accompanied by his political adviser, Hussein Khalil (IOL 537) and Iran’s ambassador to Syria, Hassan Akhtari. Nasrallah met with Iran’s spiritual leader, Ali Khamenei; president Mahmud Ahmadinejad; the commander in chief of the Revolutionary Guards (Pasdarans), gen. Yehia Rahim Safavi; the army chief-of-staff, gen. Hossein Firuzabadi; and Ali Larijani, secretary-general of Iran’s National Security Council.

The talks focussed essentially on a reorganization of Hezbollah’s military wing following the conflict with Israel last summer. Iran reportedly pledged to deliver new medium-range missiles to Hezbollah, such as the Al Fateh 110 (170-200 km), reputed to be more accurate than Zalzal missiles. Sam 7 and a few Stinger missiles recovered in Afghanistan will give Hezbollah some anti-aircraft cover as well.

Elsewhere, the Pasdaran leadership confirmed it had reached an agreement with Pyongyang to allow around 100 Hezbollah field commanders to attend training courses in North Korea. Some Hezbollah personnel arrived in North Korea in February for training in commando tactics with Pyongyang’s special forces and to bone up on intelligence and counter-espionage methods.

Indeed, Hezbollah’s new military format calls for each chief in a military zone to also act as head of security and counter-espionage. During the clash last summer, Hezbollah suffered greatly from a separation of military and intelligence functions.

Relations between Hezbollah and the North Korean regime date back some years. In September, for instance, Intelligence Online (IOL 529) revealed Hezbollah had learned the bunker strategy it used to resist Israeli attacks in North Korea.

How Iran Bankrolls its Projects

2007-04-25T07:17:00.001-05:00

Western intelligence agencies are taking a close look on how Iran finances its major energy projects.

One of the mainstays of the funding effort is a Jersey-based Iranian firm Naftiran Intertrade Company (NICO), which set up its leading establishment at Pully near Lausanne in Switzerland in 2002. An affiliate of the National Iranian Oil Company, it has been run since 1999 by Majid Razavi Hedayatzadeh, former Iranian envoy to Rome where he formed tight ties with ENI. NICO, which enjoys large credit lines with major banks such as France’s BNP Paribas and Calyon and Japan’s JBIC, played a big part in financing the South Pars gas fields. It has just announced that it will shortly award three contracts for the Azadegan oil project near the border with Iraq and claimed the deals would be worth a total of USD 95 billion.That announcement, however, is certainly premature because of the strong pressing the U.S. is bringing to bear on international banks. In that context, NICO could be tempted to call on lesser- known banks with which it has worked in the past, like BLOM Bank in Lebanon, to put up part of the finance.

BLOM is run by Syria’s Azhari family, which holds a majority stake in the bank, and has long been entrenched in Geneva, Paris (its affiliate in the French capital, Banorabe, was formed in 1976), London, Dubai, Damas, Amman and elsewhere. Among prominent persons sitting on its board is the Saudi businessman of Turkish origin, Ghassan Ibrahim Shaker, who holds a high French distinction, remains close to the Saudi royal family and serves as personal consultant to the ruler of Oman, sultan Qaboos Bin Sayed (he is also Oman’s ambassador to London and Geneva).

One way of avoiding pressure on banks has been to conduct clearing operations between several capitals and a number of big international groups. A number of such operations have involved a highly discreet Iranian businesswomen who divides her time between Paris and London, Shakira Zanganeh. The wife of Adnan Khashoggi, she acts on behalf of several major European groups. Her father was one of the heroes of the Iranian revolution and she is related to a former Iran oil minister, Bijan Namdar Zanganeh (he held the post until 2006). The latter, like Hedayatrzadeh, is a stalwart supporter of the powerful chairman of the Expediency Discernment Council, Akbar Hashemi Rafsandjani.

INTELLIGENCE ONLINE N° 545

Spinning the Fighting in South Waziristan

2007-04-24T12:00:00.000-05:00

Musharraf's government continues to promote its dangerous "peace deals."
by Daveed Gartenstein-Ross & Bill Roggio

THE PAKISTANI GOVERNMENT has entered into two agreements in the past seven months that promise to destabilize Afghanistan and provide a haven for terrorists to plan and train for catastrophic attacks.

Under the September 2006 Waziristan Accord, Pakistan agreed that its military would no longer operate in the tribal agencies of North and South Waziristan; since this left the Taliban and al Qaeda free to recruit, train, arm, and send fighters into Afghanistan, the security situation in Afghanistan and northwestern Pakistan unsurprisingly deteriorated. On March 17, Pakistan entered a disturbingly similar agreement--handing the Bajaur agency over to Taliban-aligned tribes. But recent events show that Pakistani president Pervez Musharraf's government is intent on spinning both accords as successes.

There are somewhere between a few hundred to around a thousand militants from Central Asian republics in South Waziristan. On March 6, some of them were involved in a skirmish that saw a pro-government tribal leader clash with a group of Uzbeks and their Taliban supporters in a South Waziristan bazaar. The fighting left seventeen Uzbeks and a tribesman dead. Two weeks later, a local Taliban commander named Mullah Nazir entered the fray after accusations that the Uzbeks had killed a mid-level al Qaeda commander in his care named Saiful Asad. Why the Uzbeks killed Asad is unknown, but observers suggest there may have been a criminal dimension at play since Asad was known as a moneyman.

Perversely, Pakistan quickly painted Mullah Nazir's retaliatory attacks on behalf of an al Qaeda confederate as proof of the
Waziristan Accord's success--and the gullible international media echoed Pakistan's claims.

Shortly after Mullah Nazir became involved in the fighting, Pakistani interior minister Aftab Sherpao told the media that the bloodshed was "the result of the agreements the government made with tribal people in which they pledged to expel foreigners and now they are doing it." The Pakistani newspaper the Nation echoed Sherpao's spin, noting that "Islamabad says the offensive by about 1,000 conservative local tribesmen will cut cross-border attacks in Afghanistan, and shows the success of a peace deal in the South Waziristan Agency that was criticised by the West." Western journalists likewise repeated the line that the fighting stemmed from the tribes' desire to eject foreign militants from Pakistani soil.

Islamabad's spin is implausible and, in fact, dangerous. This is an internal conflict fueled by tribal rivalries, the Uzbeks' murder of al Qaeda agents, a disagreement in strategic priorities, and land. It was the combination of these factors that gave Mullah Nazir the impetus to fight.

The first of these factors, an inter-Taliban power struggle, centers on the rivalry between Mullah Nazir and a Taliban commander known as Mullah Omar (but not the Mullah Omar). The two have been at odds since Mullah Nazir replaced Mullah Omar as head of the Ahmadzai tribe--both because of Mullah Nazir's usurpation and also preexisting clan rivalries.

The rivalry between the two men was inflamed when the Uzbeks, with whom Mullah Omar had aligned himself, killed Arab al Qaeda operative Saiful Asad. The Uzbeks also reportedly killed Sheikh Asadullah, a Saudi who was described as "the moneybags in the entire tribal belt," although it isn't known when this killing took place. Mullah Nazir was incensed by these killings, as both men were under his care when their lives were taken.

A third factor is that the Uzbeks had different strategic priorities than the local Taliban and their tribal allies. While the tribes are eager to engage U.S. forces in Afghanistan, the Uzbeks prefer to fight the "near enemy" rather than the "far enemy": they want to engage the Pakistani government. This worried the Taliban, backed by Mullah Nazir, because attacks on the government could draw unwanted attention. They figured that Pakistan's government might only turn a blind eye to jihadist violence if that violence focused outward on Afghanistan, Kashmir, or India--not on Pakistan itself.

Fourth, the fighting may be a land grab. The tribal areas are essentially set up as a feudal society, with land serving as a key component of local power. Journalist Mobarak Ali told the Pakistani press, "I have heard of the Uzbeks and Tajiks holding large properties of which some were bought, some gifted by the local people who entered into relations with them, while some were taken forcibly." Ali said that one bone of contention between the Uzbeks and locals may be these properties, which some Uzbeks developed into model farms.

These four factors best explain the recent skirmishes in South Waziristan. The only party to argue that a general desire to push foreign fighters out of Waziristan was a factor is the Musharraf regime.

That argument does not withstand scrutiny. Although Mullah Nazir's tribesmen declared a jihad against some Uzbeks and their local supporters in South Waziristan, Arab al Qaeda were not included in this jihad--and the tribesmen didn't
even target all Uzbeks in the area. Pakistan's News International notes that the tribesmen are only fighting what they describe as the "bad Uzbeks," rather than the "good Uzbeks."

The bad Uzbeks are part of the Islamic Jihad Group, a faction that splintered from the terrorist Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU) in 2004. Islamic Jihad Group militants in Waziristan are intent on fighting the "near enemy," including Pakistan's government, rather than U.S. and Coalition forces.

And the good Uzbeks? Rather than being part of the Islamic Jihad Group, they are affiliated with the main IMU, led by Tahir Yuldashev. This faction has closely aligned itself with al Qaeda and the Taliban. Yuldashev is believed to sit on al Qaeda's global shura council and maintains tactical control of about 500 fighters in Pakistan. Intelligence sources believe that some of these fighters serve on the Black Guard, bin Laden's personal corps of bodyguards. Yuldashev enjoys a close relationship with bin Laden, and his strategic preferences align with Mullah Nazir's: he also supports attacks on coalition forces in Afghanistan. The fact that these are the "good Uzbeks" undermines Pakistan's claims about the recent fighting.

Moreover, Mullah Nazir's relationships with various al Qaeda operatives shows that he's not trying to drive Arab al Qaeda fighters from Waziristan. He has been a known ally of operatives Asad, Asadullah, and Khadr Al Kanadi, who had worked with al Qaeda for more than a decade and was reportedly one of Osama bin Laden's closer associates.

When the Pakistani government intervenes militarily to aid Mullah Nazir, it isn't helping the tribes push Islamic militants out of the country. Instead, the intervention is the equivalent of the U.S. government fighting the Tattaglias on the Corleones' behalf.

But, one might ask, isn't it good that the Taliban tribes and al Qaeda-aligned Uzbeks are fighting each other? Shouldn't we celebrate this schism? The answer is that the fighting is a positive turn for us, but the long-term impact may be relatively insignificant to al Qaeda. Like an internal mafia war, one family rises to the top in the end and the criminal enterprise continues.

But there is a real danger for the West. If the fighting is incorrectly viewed as a Waziristan Accord success story, it may lead some observers to believe that future Waziristan Accords are sustainable--and thus alleviate Western pressure to avoid such deals.

counterterrorismblog.org

Nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopians killed on Ethiopian oil field

2007-04-24T11:54:00.000-05:00

Nine Chinese and 65 Ethiopian employees were killed on Tuesday in an attack by armed men on an oil field in eastern Ethiopia, a spokesman for Ethiopian Prime Minister Meles Zenawi told AFP.

About 200 unidentified gunmen launched an attack on the oil field in Somali state where China's Zhongyuan Petroleum Exploration Bureau was exploring for oil, the official Xinhua news agency reported.

The attackers engaged more than 100 soldiers protecting the field in a fierce 50 minute gun battle, the report said, citing Xu Shuang, the manager of Zhongyuan petroleum, a subsidiary of China's oil giant Sinopec.

The attack was also confirmed by China's embassy in Ethiopia, Xinhua said.

The oil field is located in Abole, a small town about 120 kilometres (75 miles) away from the Somali state capital of Jijiga, it said.

China has stepped up investment and exploration in African oil fields in recent years as its appetite for energy has boomed along with its growing economy.

Chinese workers have also been plagued by a spate of killings and kidnappings in Nigeria in recent months where Beijing is also aggressively seeking to develop the nation's oil reserves.

Criticism mounts over Iran headscarf crackdown

2007-04-24T11:53:00.000-05:00

The police force were facing increasing criticism on Tuesday for their handling of a nationwide crackdown aimed at making women abide by Iran's Islamic dress code.

Thousands of women have been warned and hundreds arrested for wearing overly loose headscarves or excessively tight coats, prompting warnings in the press that the authorities should be focusing on other economic priorities.

Even the overall head of the judiciary, Ayatollah Mahmoud Hashemi Shahroudi, who is appointed by supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, urged police against heavy-handed actions against women found to have broken the rules.

"Hauling women and young people to the police station will have no use except to cause damage to society," the reformist Etemad Melli newspaper quoted Shahroudi as telling a meeting of local governors.

"Tough measures on social problems will backfire and have counter-productive effects," he warned.

Witnesses have said that the drive, launched on Saturday, has not been universally popular on Tehran's streets, with parents of the women apprehended in particular unafraid of making their feelings clear to the police.

Reformist newspapers and the ISNA student news agency reported that 2,000 students at a prestigious university in the southern city of Shiraz staged a protest on Sunday night over new restrictions on conduct and clothing.

The protests were triggered by a new code of conduct banning the students from wearing shorts and sleeveless vests outside rooms in their strictly segregated dormitories and an extended curfew.

It is not clear whether the new directive was in line with the nationwide clampdown on dressing, which also applies to men.

Critics in the media also complained that the government of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad had more important issues to deal with, citing the country's soaring inflation and high unemployment rates.

"Mr President, I wonder if what the police, supervised by your interior ministry, are doing to women stems from a misunderstanding?" asked Masih Alinejad, a columnist in the Etemad Melli daily.

"Or are people's major problems of injustice and poverty have been resolved?" he asked.

Alinejad recalled that Ahmadinejad asked during his 2005 electoral campaign whether the problem "in our country was two strands of women's hair or fighting poverty, creating jobs and implementing justice?"

Two-thirds of Iran's 70-million population is under 30 and the official unemployment rate stands at about 11 percent. Economists have warned against rising inflation, estimated to hit 24 percent in the current Iranian year.

Even the hardline daily Kayhan said that "being badly-veiled is not the only vice" in the country.

"There are major vices such as going to bed hungry, being deprived of higher education, unemployment and the inability of a large number of people to provide for their basic needs," it said.

"The officials should prove they have plans to resolve these as well," wrote Kayhan, whose chief editor in also appointed by Khamenei.

Some conservatives have applauded the crackdown as important at a time when many women are pushing the boundaries of what is acceptable by showing off naked ankles and fashionably styled hair beneath their headscarves.

But Ahmadinejad's government on Tuesday sought to distance itself from the clampdown, which it said was being carried out by police as "agents of the judiciary".

"The police work as agents of the judiciary to confront crimes. The government as an executive body does not interfere in the affairs of the judiciary," government spokesman Gholam Hossein Elham told reporters.

Iran has issued 3,500 warnings nationwide and detained around 200 women in the new drive launched on Saturday, according to the latest police figures quoted by local media.

The campaign is aimed primarily at women seen to infringe the rules of covering their heads and bodily contours that have been in place since the Islamic revolution in 1979.

afp

Turkey's military prepares for May invasion of N. Iraq

2007-04-24T11:51:00.000-05:00

ANKARA — Turkey has drafted plans for a major military operation in northern Iraq within days or weeks.

On April 20, Turkey's NTV television said the Turkish military has set a "specific timetable" for the offensive against the Kurdish Workers Party in Iraq. NTV said the proposed force would attack PKK camps in the Kandil mountains.
Turkish sources said a force of at least 10,000 troops, backed by main battle tanks, armored vehicles, helicopters and fixed-wing aircraft, was being formed for the invasion. They said the operation could take place in May.

NTV said the military would monitor the PKK insurgency campaign until May. At that point, the military would be ready to send forces into Iraq.

Over the last two weeks, Turkish military commanders have been urging the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan to approve an offensive against the PKK. The commanders were said to have assessed that U.S. efforts to block PKK activities in northern Iraq failed.

At this point, the Erdogan government has refused to approve the invasion. Instead, the military was being allowed to operate along the Iraqi border.

A senior Turkish official, however, discussed the prospect of an invasion of northern Iraq with the Bush administration. Turkish coordinator of Kurdish affairs, Adip Bashar, was said to have told the administration that Turkey would wait till the end of April before deciding on the invasion.

The Turkish military has assessed that about 500 PKK operatives were in secret bases in southeastern Turkey. Another 5,000 have crossed into Turkey from Iraq and were attacking Turkish troops and police.

world tribune

Russia to build eight nuclear submarines by 2017

2007-04-16T08:10:00.001-05:00

MOSCOW: Russia will build eight nuclear submarines armed with Bulava intercontinental missiles by 2017, junior Defence Minister Alexi Moskovski said Sunday as the first of them was launched.

"Seven submarines of the Borei (type 955) will be built and launched by the navy between now and 2015. The eighth will be received in 2017," the Interfax news agency quoted him as saying.

The Yuri Dolgoruky submarine, launched at the northwestern naval base of Severodvinsk, is the first strategic nuclear submarine built in Russia since the fall of the Soviet Union in 1991.

The Bulava missiles can carry 10 nuclear warheads with a range of up to 8,000 kilometres (5,000 miles).

Iraq economy: Kurdish promise

2007-04-16T08:06:00.001-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

You would be hard pushed to find an area keener on attracting foreign investors than Iraqi Kurdistan. The region is almost entirely dependent on imports, as the authorities search for ways to rebuild an economic base that was all but destroyed during the Anfal campaign of Saddam Hussein in the late 1980s.

Local industry and, especially, agriculture (once the dominant employer in Kurdistan) were all but annihilated by the time Kurdistan gained its autonomy in late 1991. Large parts of the local population had been forcibly evicted from their razed villages to the towns by Saddam, and subsequently employed in the public sector in an effort to ensure their dependence on Baghdad (even now some 1.1m people out of the Kurdistan population of 5m still work in the public sector). Meanwhile, infrastructure was left to deteriorate, and several universities and schools closed. From such an unpromising beginning, the Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG) was born, comprising the three governorates of Dohuk, Erbil (the regional capital) and Suleimaniyah. A civil war between the two main Iraqi Kurdish parties--the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK)--between 1994 and 1996 hardly helped matters, and led to a splitting of the administration into their respective strongholds in Erbil and Suleimaniyah. Since that time, however, the region's fortunes have revived, as the toppling of Saddam Hussein in 2003 and the descent into anarchy in Baghdad and much of central Iraq, combined with a rapprochement between the PUK and the KDP (most state ministries are now merged and located in Erbil), has seen the KRG area emerge as a relative haven of stability.

Gateway

This has allowed the KRG to project itself as a "gateway to Iraq", aiming to draw in foreign companies seeking to take advantage of the reconstruction opportunities in "Arab Iraq", but which are deterred by the lack of security throughout much of the rest of the country. However, even this is proving a challenge. Despite there having being only two bomb attacks in Kurdistan since the fall of Saddam in 2003, the region's image continues to suffer from the headline-grabbing horrors witnessed daily in other parts of the country, and Western officials and businessmen still often prefer to hire private security firms to ferry them around. Such attitudes exasperate some in the KRG--as well as the general public--and it is easy to sympathise with their frustration. At least in the cities, the Peshmerga maintain a reassuring, albeit somewhat pervasive, presence, and the locals are friendly, and, as such, Westerners are often seen walking unaccompanied.

The government has sought to supersede security concerns by passing one of the most foreigner-friendly investment laws in the entire Middle East. Under the investment law of 2006, foreigners not only enjoy some of the advantages on offer in various other Arab states--such as a ten-year tax holiday, and free repatriation of capital—they can also purchase land (for only a "symbolic" fee), which will be theirs for perpetuity. The law has been widely praised by both local and foreign businesses in the area, and, according to the head of the Board of Investment, Herish Muhamad, as of March some 17 firms had already registered. Yet his admission that most of these were connected to property projects highlights the unbalanced nature of the region's current economic recovery.

Real estate boom

The property sector in Kurdistan is booming. The massive US$1bn "Nishtiman" shopping mall is under construction in the centre of the Erbil, and a swathe of housing projects, including notably "Dream City" on the outskirts of the city, are presently in-build. A leading local businessman, Ahmed Rekami, whose US$20m "New City"--which boasts a shopping mall, and 52-room hotel--recently opened in the centre of town, likens the situation to Dubai in the 1990s. Indeed, the bullish Mr Rekami relates that he has turned down the opportunity to move to the emirate because the opportunities in Kurdistan are so vast.

Yet, with this economic upturn has come associated inflationary pressures--according to Professor Almas Heshmati, head of the department of economic and finance at the newly-constructed University of Kurdistan Hawler, house prices have doubled over the past few years--and Mr Rekami says that the price of cement has risen from US$50/tonne in 2003 to US$170/tonne. A new cement plant built by Egypt's Orascom Construction Industries (in partnership with the local Farouk Rasool Group) near Suleimaniyah is set to open in August, but this will provide only partial respite. In addition, not all the blame for inflation can be laid at the door of the property sector--intermittent influxes of budgetary cash from Baghdad cause sudden fluctuations in the money supply, and fuel prices have leapt because of a shortage of refined products (leading to a thriving black market). However, perhaps more importantly, it is not excess cash but the supremacy of cash that is holding back the Kurdistan economy at present.

Cash economy

The banking sector in Kurdistan is severely underdeveloped. Cash dominates, to such an extent that when asked what people buy their houses with, Adham Darwesh, the general manager of the Central Bank of Kurdistan, replied (through a translator): "piles of cash". In interviews, the trade and planning ministers, as well as the head of the investment board, all acknowledged the lack of a developed financial system as a serious hindrance. However, there may well be room for optimism. Although Mr Rekami's complaint that the banks offer little more than a money transference service may be true at present, the arrival of new foreign banks, including Dar Es Salam (80% owned by HSBC) and most recently Lebanon's Byblos Bank, should help increase capacity. The head of the investment board also revealed that another Lebanese bank, Bank Audi, is in negotiations about setting up in the region, and he argued that the banking situation will be "sorted out very soon". Achieving this will be crucial, and not just because of the extra support it will offer to private-sector ventures. The opacity associated with having to deal almost solely in cash can often prove a deterrent to foreign businessmen, and corruption in Kurdistan is a widely-acknowledged problem.

However, for those within Kurdistan, the most urgent need is for substantial foreign investment. The government is seeking foreign money to finance the huge infrastructure upgrades needed—including a proposed road linking all three of Kurdistan's main towns with their borders—and Mr Muhamad floated the intriguing option of "sharing management services" usually associated with the government, such as greater private-sector participation in the education sector, and even potentially PFIs in road and bridge construction. With the constitution confining sovereign debt issuance solely to the federal government, and the KRG allocated just 17% of federal oil revenue (after current spending)--the planning minister, Othman Shwani, among others, has argued that Kurdistan needs more, considering Saddam's legacy in the Kurdish areas—foreign money is desperately needed.

Local businessmen are extremely keen on forming partnerships with foreign firms, with Baz R. Karim, the president of local KAR Group, putting forward the argument that joint ventures are the most successful model for doing business in the country as a whole. His firm's record would seem to support his view, having completed a raft of projects across both the civil and oil sectors. For example, in partnership with USAID, the firm has supplied furniture to over 2,800 schools all over Iraq, successfully installed a fibre-optic cable in Baghdad and further north with Bechtel of the US, and says it is more than halfway through the US$175m Hamrin oilfield project, a joint venture with OGI Group of Canada, located south of Kirkuk. Yet finding sufficient foreign enthusiasm for such joint ventures is perhaps proving the greatest challenge.

Although Turkish firms have poured into Kurdistan over the past ten years, the much sought-after Western firms, with their up-to-date technology and high-quality products, have so far proved more reticent. Legal concerns have deterred the arrival of new oil firms--although five small- and medium-sized companies have signed contracts with the KRG--as the federal oil law awaits approval in Baghdad.

Meanwhile, security concerns also still appear to predominate, and not just among Western companies. Despite the warm words of Western governments towards the KRG, these sentiments do not seem to be shared by their visa offices. Dara Jalil al-Khaymat, the president of the Erbil Chamber of Commerce, highlighted EU countries' regular refusal to issue local businessmen with visas as a major impediment, while Mr Muhamad pointed out that one of his keynote official speakers could not attend a business forum in London because UK immigration had refused his visa request. Meanwhile, direct bilateral aid has been in short supply and often misdirected--a finance official in Suleimaniyah said that the area has received only US$80m from the US in direct aid, most of which was spent on police stations they did not want. A plan to set up two free zones in the region may help, although it is not entirely clear what extra incentives these could provide beyond those included in the Investment Law. As such, the KRG is still struggling to attract the Western firms and finance it so desperately needs. Although the old lament that the Kurds have "no friends but the mountains" may no longer be entirely true, it appears, at the moment at least, that some in Kurdistan still need convincing.

Iran politics: Ahmadinejad's show

2007-04-16T08:04:00.000-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, has enjoyed one of his finer moments of populist political theatre in announcing the release of the 15 British sailors and marines captured by Iranian naval forces on March 23rd. By taking charge of the issue, which had hitherto been handled with little evident authority by the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr Ahmadinejad has given the impression of mastery over key political decisions in Iran. However, the abrupt resolution of the affair could also signify that the radical wing of the Iranian regime, of which Mr Ahmadinejad is the figurehead, had been placed under pressure from other power centres anxious at the implications of a prolonged stand-off.

Softly softly

The original incident is likely to have been planned by Iran, or elements within the regime, with a number of objectives in mind. The Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), which forms an important part of Mr Ahmadinejad's power base and whose naval units were involved in the capture of the British personnel, had good reason to take action of this kind as a means to bring pressure on the US for the release of five of its officers who were arrested in the Iraqi Kurdish town of Erbil in January. It has been suggested that the US operation may have been aimed at capturing two senior IRGC figures who had been in the area at the time. Other factors may have included the passage of fresh UN sanctions on Iran in light of its nuclear programme, with Iran intent on showing that it would not be passive in the face of this growing pressure on it to trim its nuclear policy. The incident could also be construed as an attempt by Mr Ahmadinejad to hit back at critics of his confrontational approach in both foreign and domestic policy.

The UK's initial reaction to the crisis was to assert in forceful terms that the Iranian action was illegitimate, as the interception took place in Iraqi waters, and to secure international support through the UN and the EU. Thereafter, the UK took a more subtle approach, perhaps heeding counsel from within Iran and, reportedly, from Syria that confrontation would merely play into the hands of Mr Ahmadinejad. While rejecting any notion of an apology, let alone a deal, the UK expressed "regret" that the incident had occurred. This left open the interpretation that it could have been the result of a misunderstanding. Iranian honour was also partially assuaged by the release of one of its diplomats, who had been abducted by Iraqis in Baghdad, and the Iraqi government said that it had asked the US to allow Iranian consular access to the five suspected IRGC officers arrested in Erbil.

Mr Ahmadinejad said that Iran had decided to release the British sailors and marines as a seasonal goodwill gesture, marking the birthday of the Prophet Mohammed and the impending arrival of Easter. On the occasion of his speech he also pinned medals on commanders of the IRGC coastguard, commending them for their valour in confronting the alleged UK incursion.

The decision to bring the affair to a rapid close could also have been influenced by concern that the deliberate, and illegitimate, nature of the original operation could have been exposed if proposals to set up an independent international commission of inquiry to adjudicate between the British and Iranian claims had been put into practice.

Mr Ahmadinejad has once more shown his flair for the occasion, but it is by no means clear that he has advanced his cause within the Iranian political system. Iran's professional diplomats, by contrast, have offered a hint of flexibility in their dealings with the crisis, which could yet prove to be significant as the wider disputes over the nuclear programme and Iran's regional role develop.

The Economist Intelligence Unit

Fears That New Chinese Warhead Could Seep into Iraq

2007-04-16T08:02:00.001-05:00

By John C.k. Daly
Two months ago, Chinese arms company Xinshidai (New Era) displayed its latest weapons products at the International Defense Exhibition arms show in Abu Dhabi, seeking to establish its own niche in the world's lucrative arms market. Xinshidai is a conglomerate of several Chinese state-run armament manufacturing enterprises. Given Xinshidai's interest in expanding its presence in the Middle Eastern market and its ties to Iran, the possibility exists that weaponry sold to the region could "bleed" into Iraq. Xinshidai's prior record of flouting international regulations on arms trafficking makes it unlikely that the company would insist on tight export controls. Especially worrying is that the company has reportedly developed a thermo-baric fuel air explosive warhead for the RPG-7 handheld anti-tank grenade launcher; the warhead is known as the WPF 2004.

Xinshidai's new shoulder-fired warhead weighs seven pounds and has a reported accuracy range of 650 feet (International Defense Review, March 16). The new missile warheads would allow users an increased capability not only against buildings, but also against forces deployed in bunkers or underground facilities. The warhead's explosive potential is far greater than a conventional round and could collapse a multi-story building while killing all inside. Since the Middle East is now China's fourth largest trading partner, and given Xinshidai's past role in illicit arms sales, it is possible that the new weaponry will eventually emerge in Iraq and be used against U.S. forces. Indeed, in September 2004, the U.S. Federal Register announced that Xinshidai was to be subjected to two years of U.S. sanctions for illicit sales of missiles and related goods to Iran.

The Russian-made RPG-7 is the most widely used RPG in the world and is a favorite among insurgents. Adding the WPF 2004 warhead to the RPG-7 would pose an even greater threat to counter-insurgent forces. In 1993, for example, RPG-7s downed the U.S. Black Hawk helicopters in Mogadishu during Operation Restore Hope. In Iraq, guerrillas regularly use the RPG-7; according to an April 1 report in Mafkarat al-Islam, Iraqi guerrillas launched an attack with RPG-7s in al-Hasy, just south of Fallujah, and allegedly killed four Iraqi soldiers. Moreover, Turkey just recently uncovered an arms cache belonging to the PKK that was well-stocked with RPG-7s, believed to have been brought into southeastern Turkey through northern Iraq (Today's Zaman, April 5). Given their relative inexpensiveness and availability, RPG-7s modified with the WPF 2004 warhead could give Iraqi insurgents a significant new cost-effective element in their arsenal of weapons to combat coalition forces.

While it is too early to tell, a previously sanctioned Chinese armaments company seeking to expand its market share in the Middle East with longstanding trade ties to Iran, combined with porous Iraqi borders, leads to the unsettling conclusion that it is perhaps only a matter of time before such inexpensive and potent weapons enter the insurgents' arsenal.

SPAIN: TWO ALLEGED AL-QAEDA MEMBERS 'FLEE FROM MOROCCO'

2007-04-16T08:00:00.000-05:00

(AKI) - Spanish authorities are hunting for two Moroccans, both alleged al-Qaeda members believed to have attended an al-Qaeda training camp in Mali and to have recently fled from Morocco to Spain, daily ABC reported on Friday. Police believed the two militants know how to make an explosives belt and that at least one of them is hiding in the southern Andalusia region, the paper said. One entered Spain via a people trafficking network operating in northern Morocco, where security has been steppped up in the Spanish enclaves of Ceuta and Melilla - both with significant Muslim populations - said ABC.

Spain's interior minister Alfredo Perez Rubalcaba on Thursday decided to boost security in the provinces where the highest number of ililegal immigrants arrive from North Africa and where the authorities fear Islamist extremists could infiltrate - Cadiz, Malaga, Almeria and Alicante - as well as in Ceuta and Melilla.

Despite this week's bombings in Algeria and in Morocco, Spain's authorities have decided not to raise the alert level from 'moderate' currently to 'high'. Twin bombings in the Algerian capital on Wednesday that killed 33 and injured over 200 came a day after a police raid in the Moroccan city of Casablanca in which three suspected Islamist militants blew themselves up after a police raid in which a fourth was shot dead.

The Moroccan authorities on Thursday announced they had arrested two suspects at least one which is believed to belong to an alleged Islamist terror cell cornered by police in Tuesday's raid on the al-Fida district of Casablanca. Morocco's interior minister Chakib Benmoussa said late on Wednesday he suspected three to four members of the suspected Casablanca cell might still be on the run.

A team of police and civil guard officers has gone to Morocco to assist their counterparts' investigation of an alleged plot to carry out suicide attacks in the country, ABC reported on Thursday.

The al-Qaeda Organisation in the Islamic Maghreb claimed the Algiers attacks in a message sent to Arabic satellite TV network Al Jazeera. Morocco's interior minister Chakib Benmoussa has stated there was no link between Tuesday's raid in Casablanca and Wednesday's attacks in Algiers. Nontheless, the bombings are stoking fears of a widening conflict that could spread from North Africa to Europe, analysts say.

Spain raised its alert level to moderate in February when the trial of 29 people for the deadly 11 March 2004 train bombings opened in Madrid. Many of the defendants are of Moroccan and most of North African origins. The Madrid attacks - the deadliest in Western Europe since the 1988 bombing of Pan Am Flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland - killed 191 people and injured over 1,000.

Mohammed VI: Morocco at risk of terror attacks

2007-04-16T07:59:00.000-05:00

Moroccan King warns his country is potential target of terror attacks similar to Agliers’ deadly bombings.

RABAT - Morocco risks attacks similar to the "odious terrorist" bombings that struck Algeria, King Mohammed VI warned in a message Friday to Algerian President Abdelaziz Bouteflika.

"We believe that your sister nation, Morocco, is also among the targets...", the king said in the message of condolence over Wednesday's suicide bombings in Algiers.

"We are convinced that the security of our neighbour, our sister Algeria, is an integral part of the security of Morocco, even the stability of the Maghreb region and in a wider sense of North Africa, of the southwestern Mediterranean and the Sahel and Sahara regions," he said.

Two suicide car bombings in Algiers on Wednesday killed 33 people and injured more than 220. They were claimed by Al-Qaeda's branch in North Africa, formerly known as the Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC).

Those attacks came only a day after three suicide bombers blew themselves up and a fourth was killed by police in the Moroccan city of Casablanca, fueling regional fears of a resurgence in militant activity following crackdowns by north African governments.

Mohammed VI expressed his "strong condemnation" of the attacks in Algiers, which he termed "odious terrorist acts that go against all religions and all laws.

"We are all targets, and all those in the world who believe in religious values and in democratic norms, especially those advocating Islam, today constitute a potential target," he said.

One soldier, nine rebels killed in Turkey clashes

2007-04-16T07:57:00.000-05:00

TUNCELI, Turkey (Reuters) - Nine Kurdish separatist guerrillas and one soldier have been killed in clashes in Turkey's restive southeast region, security forces said on Monday.

They were killed on Sunday in separate incidents during a military offensive involving 10,000 troops in the mainly Kurdish region against the rebels of the outlawed Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK).

The clashes, which occurred in Tunceli, Siirt and Hakkari provinces, follow similar incidents over the past couple of weeks.

Spring usually sees a pick-up in violence, as the mountain snows melt and more rebels cross into Turkish territory from hideouts in northern Iraq.

Last week, the head of Turkey's powerful military General Staff called for an offensive against the rebels in northern Iraq, saying U.S. forces and the Baghdad government had failed to act against them despite Ankara's repeated pleas.

More than 30,000 people have been killed since the PKK launched its armed struggle for an ethnic homeland in southeast Turkey in 1984. The United States and the European Union, like Ankara, classify the PKK as a terrorist organization.

Europol: Europe's potential FBI

2007-04-16T07:56:00.000-05:00

As the EU discusses boosting Europol's reach to fight terrorism and crack down on organized crime, experts express concerns about civil liberties violations and the security implications of information sharing.

By Brooks Tigner in Brussels for ISN Security Watch (16/04/07)

The EU's goal to strengthen the European Police Office, otherwise known as Europol, could help to maintain the agency's more passive coordinating role vis-à-vis the bloc's 27 nations. But it also could expand investigative powers and create a new legal status that might eventually convert it into a European equivalent of the powerful US Federal Bureau of Investigation.

While most national law enforcement stakeholders support Europol's forthcoming transformation, civil liberty experts, members of the European Parliament (MEPs) and the EU's own data protection watchdog worry about the new kinds of personal data Europol will collect - and whether it will be handled responsibly when shared with other EU agencies, national authorities or non-EU countries.

One of their main concerns is the new freedom Europol would have to collect data from private bodies such as banks, retailers and private security companies. This possibility "calls for a great deal of thought, since such data may not have been obtained by safe, reliable means," says Spanish MEP Agustin Diaz de Mera, in a new draft report for the Euro-parliament's Civil Liberties Committee. "Additional safeguards - including judicial review - must be introduced."

At issue is a European Commission proposal, unveiled in December, to convert the 12-year-old Europol multilateral organization into a bona fide EU agency, paid and staffed from its resources. The proposal would strengthen Europol in three main ways, by:

* Extending its present mandate beyond investigation of organized crime to include other forms of so-called serious crime such as sex trafficking and child pornography, gun-running, terrorist activities and money-laundering

* Enabling it to receive information and intelligence from private bodies

* Authorizing Europol to participate in investigations with individual national authorities or in joint investigative teams.

The proposal would also require Europol to make its data-procession systems, and in particular the Europol Information system, interoperable with those of the 27 member states and with other EU bodies involved in investigative or judicial work. Examples of the latter are OLAF, the union’s anti-corruption watchdog, or Eurojust, the EU agency that coordinates national judicial activities.

"This will create the technical conditions for the smooth exchange of data, provided legal frameworks to allow such an exchange and without prejudice to basic principles of data protection," the European Commission blandly notes in the explanatory memorandum to its proposal.
Civil liberty concerns

Few dispute the need for a more organized pan-European approach to fighting terrorism or money-laundering. The number of terrorism investigations supported by Europol last year, for example, jumped 50 percent from 40 in 2005 to 60 in 2006.

But civil liberty proponents are especially worried about the privacy implications of two aspects in the proposal: allowing Europol to broaden the scope and sources of intelligence it can trawl and retain, and the notion of linking national law enforcement databases into what effectively will function as a super - and supranational - European database of information.

Europol and other public-sector officials argue this is a necessary condition if Europe is to deal with today's proliferating crime networks.

"We need a mandate wider than that for just organized crime. We are seeing more and more networks of criminals. We have to fight traveling hooligans, the distribution of child pornography and the movement of serial killers. The only way to confront these threats is to create networks of law enforcement authorities as a counterweight," Max-Peter Ratzel, Europol’s director, told a 10 April public hearing of the Civil Liberties Committee.

"We need to move from a need-to-know to a need-to-share basis [among law enforcement authorities in Europe]," he said.

Others are not so sure.

The EU's data privacy watchdog in Brussels, known as the European Data Protection Supervisor, say the proposal's requirement that Europol make its data system interoperable with national ones goes far beyond the mere technical challenge of linking the systems together.

In its 10 March opinion on the Commission’s proposal, the EDPS notes that once databases become interoperable "there will be pressure to actually use this possibility. This poses specific risks related to the principle of purpose limitation" since data can easily be used for purposes different from those for which it was collected.

Civil liberty proponents argue that such implications are all the more worrying in view of disparate national rules covering the collection of personal data by commercial entities, individual freedom-of-access rights to police and judiciary dossiers, and the transfer of intelligence to third countries.
Reputation to consider

Though expressing support for the Commission's proposal in general, Willy Bruggemann, professor at Benelux University Centre in Brussels and former senior deputy director of Europol, told the hearing, "I regret that the EU has no global view on security," regarding the way in which police intelligence should be shared and used.

EU member states are still doing "intelligence shopping," he said. "Sometimes they use Europol, sometimes Interpol [the global equivalent to Europol] and sometimes their own national and regional networks and databases. There's no consistency."

Paul de Hert, a law and criminology expert at the University of Brussels, pointed to another problem: Europol's lack of a proper "adequacy process" for evaluating whether the privacy/confidentiality rules and judicial procedures of third-countries are sufficient to justify sharing data with them. The European Commission applies adequacy procedures when dealing with third countries, for instance.

De Hert noted that EU member states still did not want Europol to have very much power, despite the proposal's provisions.

"If member states bear down too much on Europol [in terms of restricting what it can do with information] but not on themselves, then you may see Europol simply handing over requests from third countries for investigative data to those EU countries whose [less strict] rules allow them to meet the request. This could harm the reputation of the EU as a whole regarding data protection."

Europol officials admit they have an "adequacy problem."

Dietrich Neumann of Europol's legal affairs unit told the hearing that the organization's legal foundation "does fall a little short" of the adequacy criterion. "This is a legal gap," he said, but added that adequacy provision "are not very clear in other EU legal instruments and bodies either."

Calling for the Commission's adequacy process to be incorporated into Europol, de Hert went even further, suggesting that "maybe it would even be a good idea to let Europol handle and evaluate requests for transfers of data to third countries on behalf of all member states."

Another potential risk for personal privacy is Europol's forthcoming absorption of information and intelligence from private entities. In Europol's vastly expanded database "there is no way to separate data collected for counterterrorism purposes from data that citizens will have provide to private companies for other reasons. I repeat: no way to do this. We must address the issue of databases that are created for one purpose but mined for another," said Juliet Lodge, who works at the University of Leeds' Jean Monnet Centre.

"I see another problem, too, with divergent terminology. We need standard, common intelligence terms that everyone understands the same way," she said. "Take biometrics, for example. The US government considers that this includes information about behavior. That opens the door to profiling. Do we want that here in Europe? There must be EU rules on governance in this regard. I see an urgent need for a universal EU code on access to networked intelligence databases."

Report: China hopes Sudan will be flexible on UN

2007-04-09T13:26:00.000-05:00

A Chinese Foreign Ministry official visiting Sudan said China hopes Khartoum will show flexibility over a UN proposal to stop the fighting in the country's Darfur region, state media reported Monday.

Xinhua News Agency said Zhai Jun, an assistant foreign minister, met Sudanese President Omar al-Bashir during his four-day trip, which started Friday.

China buys two-thirds of Sudan's oil exports and sells it weapons and military aircraft, but has been criticized for not using its influence to do more to stop the crisis in Sudan's Darfur region that has left at least 200,000 dead and forced more than 2.5 million from their homes since 2003.

The United Nations and Sudan agreed in November on a plan backed by former UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan for the incremental deployment of a joint African Union-UN force of 20,000 peacekeepers, but al-Bashir has since backed off the deal, saying he would allow only a larger AU force with technical and logistical support from the United Nations.

AP

Report: US Intelligence Says New Generation of Al Qaida Leadership Emerging

2007-04-04T09:27:00.000-05:00

Report: US Intelligence Says New Generation of Al Qaida Leadership Emerging By VOA News 02 April 2007 A published report says the United States is aware that a new generation of al-Qaida leadership under Osama bin Laden is emerging in Pakistan's tribal areas. The New York Times reports Monday that U.S. intelligence officials say the new leaders rose within the group's ranks following the death or capture of operatives following the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States. But authorities are quoted as saying they know little of how the new leadership in Pakistan communicates with bin Laden. The officials also say the new al-Qaida hierarchy is not reliant on constant contact with the terrorist group's leader.

Officials told the newspaper that new information has led the U.S. intelligence community to reassess al-Qaida's strength, and to realize its leadership has not been as badly crippled by counter-terrorism efforts as previously thought. Officials and analysts describe the new generation of terrorist leaders as being in their mid-30s, battle-hardened, and more diverse in their origins than previous al-Qaida leaders. The Times reports that experts say even though the group al-Qaida in Iraq is largely separate from the main al-Qaida organization in Pakistan, the fighting in Iraq will likely produce the terrorist network's future leaders. Officials say U.S., European and Pakistani authorities are learning about the new terrorist leaders from investigations, and from interrogations of terrorist suspects. Some information for this report was provided by Reuters.

Ukraine politics: Another constitutional crisis

2007-04-03T17:24:00.001-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

On April 2, Ukraine's president, Viktor Yushchenko, signed a decree dissolving the country's parliament, and setting fresh elections for May 27th. With parliament, dominated by Mr Yushchenko's opponents, promptly rejecting the decree, banning the government from funding the election, and ordering it to continue operating as usual, the country faces its biggest political crisis since the 'Orange Revolution' of late 2004.

The latest events are the culmination of eight months of tense relations between the president and the government of Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, Mr Yushchenko's Orange Revolution rival. Mr Yanukovych returned to government in August 2006, thanks to the Orange parties' failure to put together a coalition following the March parliamentary elections of that year. Since then, the two men have been involved in an increasingly debilitating power struggle, as Mr Yanukovych has tested the president's authority at every level.

Constitutional loose ends

At the heart of the struggle lie the constitutional changes agreed in late 2004 at the height of the Orange Revolution, as a way out of the impasse. The changes came into force at the beginning of 2006, and transferred a number of presidential prerogatives to parliament, including the right to nominate the prime minister. Crucially, however, many of the constitutional provisions have proven open to interpretation, significantly increasing the rivalry as the president and prime minister have sought to define the rules in their own terms and challenge the legality of each other's actions. In recent months the government has also intensified the pressure on Mr Yushchenko by ousting nearly all of his allies from the cabinet, encroaching on his foreign policy remit, and challenging his authority in the regions. In January, parliament passed a Law on the Cabinet of Ministers, which further limits the president's powers, including the right to nominate the foreign and defence ministers. Mr Yushchenko views the law as unconstitutional.

Mr Yushchenko's erstwhile Orange ally, Yuliya Tymoshenko, has long been urging early elections as a way out of the deadlock. She remains a popular politician, and her party, the Yuliya Tymoshenko Bloc (YTB) would stand to gain the most from an fresh poll. Although the popularity of Mr Yushchenko's own Our Ukraine bloc is at record lows, he appears to have been persuaded to push for new elections following the recent defection of several Our Ukraine and YTB deputies to the ruling coalition, which is led by Mr Yanukovych's Party of Regions (PoR). As many as 11 are said to have defected, giving the coalition control of around 260 legislators in the 450-seat chamber—dangerously near to the 300 constitutional majority that would allow the government to overturn presidential vetoes and change the constitution. Mr Yushchenko has justified the dissolution of parliament by saying that the government acted unconstitutionally by accepting individual deputies into its ranks. He argues that the constitution provides for coalitions to be composed of factions, rather than individuals.

Calculations of self-interest

Mr Yushchenko's action has, unsurprisingly, been welcomed by Ms Tymoshenko. The PoR has opposed it. Although the PoR would likely win a new election, it already enjoys a more than comfortable position in parliament, and has little incentive to take on the risk of another vote. The PoR's main coalition partner, the Socialist Party, is also loath to risk its position and in particular, that of its leader, Oleksandr Moroz, as parliamentary speaker. The smallest party in the coalition, the Communists, would also be likely to lose seats in an early election.

The latest stand-off is unlikely to be resolved quickly. Although the government will challenge Mr Yushchenko's decree on dissolving parliament at the Constitutional Court—and faces a good chance of success, given that the grounds for dissolution appear far from solid—a ruling will take time. In the meantime, there is at least the possibility of dialogue: on April 3rd, Mr Yanukovych urged Mr Yushchenko to return to the negotiating table to "avoid the worst". However, such talks would also likely be protracted, and unproductive, given the stakes involved. Few had believed that the famously indecisive Mr Yushchenko would push things this far, but now that he has, he risks being virtually eclipsed if he climbs down—further defections from his camp could well follow.

It is unclear what Mr Yushchenko might demand in return for backing down on his dissolution threat, but clearly the issues at the forefront of the president's concerns are the poaching of his supporters and the erosion of his constitutional powers: before the latest developments, Mr Yushchenko had already applied to the Constitutional Court over the legality both of the original constitutional changes agreed in 2004, and of the more recent Law on the Cabinet of Ministers. He has also called for a national referendum to be held on the constitutional reform. Mr Yanukovych, for his part, has threatened to attempt to force early presidential elections should Mr Yushchenko not relent, although this would not be an easy thing to do: parliament would need to impeach the president, on the grounds that he had committed a "state treason or other crime", and the final resolution would need to be supported by three-quarters of the deputies in parliament, after review by both the Supreme Court and the Constitutional Court. The PoR will also be aware that the popular Ms Tymoshenko would be a very strong contender for the presidency. With the next scheduled presidential contest in 2009 firmly in her sights, Ms Tymoshenko has recently been busy building her international image with a high-profile trip to the US.

Spilling onto the streets

If the crisis is indeed drawn out, the risk of it escalating to the levels seen during the Orange Revolution would increase. The key players—Messrs Yanukovych, Yushchenko and Ms Tymoshenko—have already mobilised their supporters onto the streets in Kiev. In a sign of how tense the situation already is, Defence Minister Anatoly Gritsenko, who is one of only two Yushchenko allies left in the cabinet, has seen fit to state that the country's armed forces would follow the president's orders, while the EU and Russia have expressed their concern. But although the PoR in particular has sufficient financial resources to mobilise considerable support, the population in general, disenchanted with the performance of the country's politicians since the Orange Revolution, appears far from the level of spontaneous political engagement seen then. And while brinkmanship may tempt both sides to talk up the danger of re-opening the ethnic and regional fault-lines that appeared during the Orange Revolution, an awareness of the risks should at the least be an inducement to limit the dispute to the legislative arena.

Although early elections are far from certain, they would in any case be unlikely to resolve Ukraine's political difficulties. Although the parliamentary configuration would certainly change, the fundamental problem would remain: the need for a decision on what kind of political system the country should have —parliamentary, mixed parliamentary/presidential, or presidential—and for the constitution to unambiguously delineate the authority of the respective branches of power accordingly.

Russia Rejects US Offer to Jointly Create Missile Defence System

2007-04-03T17:23:00.000-05:00

Russia has no plans to allow a U.S. missile defense shield onto its soil, Reuters quoted Russian Foreign Ministry as saying on Saturday, after a senior source said Moscow was ready to discuss a collective system against any attack by rogue states.

“This information is incorrect and absolutely does not reflect Russia’s position on missile defense,” Foreign Ministry spokesman Mikhail Kamynin said in a brief statement.

On Friday a senior Russian Foreign Ministry source said Russia could host the shield on its own territory if the United States rethinks plans for a system on Russia’s borders.

President Bush telephoned his Russian counterpart, Vladimir Putin, this week to offer consultations on his plan to base a radar station in the Czech Republic and a missile battery in Poland.

Washington says the system is needed as defense from “rogue states” like North Korea and Iran. Russia rejects that argument and says the shield threatens its security.

The senior foreign ministry source said he hoped the consultations would eventually lead to Washington switching to a collective defense system, involving Russia.

“If there is a threat from North Korea or Iran then it would make sense to use our territory. And why shouldn’t we do that?” said the source.

He said a year ago NATO and Russia had been in talks about a joint missile defense system but those negotiations had been broken off “apparently because the United States wanted to develop its own, unilateral system”.

Since Bush and Putin spoke on Wednesday “we are hearing from U.S. representatives a readiness for partnership on the missile shield”, he added.

Congress Considers Future of US Nuclear Weapons

2007-04-03T17:22:00.000-05:00

WASHINGTON: Lawmakers in the U.S. House of Representatives are considering Bush administration budget requests for building new nuclear weapons, a move supporters say will create safer warheads. Critics say the move could undermine global non-proliferation efforts. In Washington, where a House Appropriations subcommittee recently heard arguments for and against the new plan.

Democratic Congressman Peter Visclosky, who chairs the subcommittee responsible for funding U.S. nuclear-weapons programs, said the question under consideration is not whether the United States should have nuclear weapons at all.

"The United States will continue to rely on a safe and reliable nuclear weapons stockpile, as a national security deterrent, for the future," said Peter Visclosky. "However, that does not mean we need to have one more nuclear weapon than is necessary for that purpose."

Under consideration is a proposal to develop a so-called reliable replacement warhead, which supporters say is needed to ensure the future safety, reliability and security of the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile. The new weapons would be certified without ground testing, which has been banned by the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty.

The Department of Energy in March announced its design choice and has requested $89 million for the 2008 fiscal year to look into the design and develop cost estimates.

General James Cartwright heads U.S. Strategic Command, which is responsible for U.S. nuclear military assets and operations in outer space. He told lawmakers the new nuclear weapons design would lead to a smaller number of more modern warheads that are safer and less expensive to maintain than current stockpiles.

"There are 21st century manufacturing processes and approaches to business that allow us to manage these problems, not with huge inventories, but with smart manufacturing process, and drive down the cost associated with these inventories," said General Cartwright.

Experts have estimated the U.S. nuclear arsenal includes more than 9,000 operational and inactive warheads. The United States and Russia have signed a treaty to reduce the number of strategic nuclear warheads to about 2,000 each, by the year 2012.

Meanwhile, former Senator Sam Nunn, the co-chairman of the private organization called Nuclear Threat Initiative, spoke out against congressional funding for the new warhead.

"If Congress gives a green light to this program, in our current world environment, and I stress, in our current world environment, I believe that this will be misunderstood by our allies, exploited by our adversaries, complicate our work to prevent the spread and use of nuclear weapons, and make resolution of the Iran and North Korea nuclear challenges all the more difficult," said Sam Nunn.

He also expressed concern that if the United States developed a new nuclear weapon, it would make it harder for Washington to discourage other countries that are on the verge of developing their own nuclear arms.

Critics also say the new design is not necessary. They point to scientific studies concluding that the plutonium pits used in U.S. warheads can be counted on to remain in good condition much longer than had been expected - for 50 to 100 years.

An Iranian Financial Intelligence Unit: Less than Meets the Eye

2007-04-02T14:03:00.000-05:00

By Michael Jacobson
April 2, 2007

The State Department's International Narcotics Control Strategy Report, released on March 1, offers a little-noted reference to a dubious claim: an Iranian government statement (made to the UN) that Tehran has established a Financial Intelligence Unit (FIU).
The report notes that Iran has provided no further details. Even if the Iranian claim were true, the creation of an FIU would do little to combat terrorism financing in the nation, given Tehran's official support for terrorist groups. In other countries, FIUs are an important element of effective counterterrorism policy -- though the record of key Middle Eastern nations is somewhat mixed in this regard.
Background

FIUs are centralized, national agencies responsible for detecting and fighting terrorism financing and money laundering. Most national units operate under the umbrella of the global FIU network, the Egmont Group (named after the Palais d'Egmont in Brussels, where the group's first meeting took place). Established in 1995, Egmont has grown rapidly, from fourteen participating countries to more than 100; the number of FIUs worldwide is even larger when one considers units that do not, or have not yet, qualified for Egmont membership. In the United States, the Financial Crimes Enforcement Network (FinCEN), a bureau of the Treasury Department, serves as Washington's representative in the group.

An FIU's primary functions, as defined by Egmont, are to receive, analyze, and disseminate information about suspicious financial activity in the unit's respective country. FIUs are supposed to share this information not only with law enforcement in their own countries, but also with other units throughout the world.

The role of such units has evolved over time. It was not until 2004 that Egmont revised its definition to require that FIUs specifically focus on terrorism financing. Previously, their primary focus had been criminal activity in the financial arena, particularly money laundering.

An Iranian FIU?

Iran's claim to have established an FIU may indicate that it recognizes the growing importance of FIUs in the international arena. In fact, the State Department has outlined other related areas where Iran has demonstrated an "awareness of international standards" on these kinds of issues. According to the narcotics control report, Iran's central bank has issued anti-laundering directives that cover suspicious financial activity, while the Iranian parliament passed similar legislation in 2003. Neither initiative, however, has been implemented in any significant fashion.

Of course, whether or not Iran has actually created an FIU is an irrelevant question for several reasons. First, according to the State Department report, there are no meaningful anti-laundering controls actually operating within Iran's banking system. An FIU cannot exercise serious oversight in such an environment. Second, it is not clear how an FIU would combat terrorism financing in a country that U.S. government officials have described as the "central banker of terror," where support for terrorist groups is official government policy.

This is particularly true when the financial institutions themselves are owned or controlled by the government and are thus playing a role in furthering the government's illicit activity. For example, the U.S. government has found evidence that Bank Saderat -- one of Iran's largest state-owned banks -- has been involved in transferring funds to terrorist groups, including Hizballah and Palestinian Islamic Jihad. Bank Sepah, another large state-owned bank, has engaged in deceptive financial practices and facilitated Iran's efforts to acquire weapons of mass destruction. In response, the U.S. Treasury Department has taken enforcement action against both institutions.

FIUs in Other Middle Eastern Countries

The FIU question is far more relevant when it comes to other key players in the region. One of the core recommendations of the Financial Action Task Force -- the intergovernmental body tasked with setting international standards for combating money laundering and terrorism financing -- is that every country should have an FIU. A review of the status of FIUs in the Middle East indicates some progress, along with a need for much improvement.

The limited number of Egmont members in the region includes Egypt, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates (UAE), Lebanon, Bahrain, and Israel. Several key countries -- such as Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Kuwait -- are notably absent from the list. According to the State Department report, Jordan is in the process of creating an FIU, but legislation is still pending. More broadly, Amman recently passed a law prohibiting certain terrorism financing activities, but it still lacks anti-laundering legislation. It also has yet to establish a statutory basis for freezing the assets of UN-designated terrorist entities.

Saudi efforts to establish an FIU have been both well publicized and openly criticized. In 2005, Riyadh announced the opening of an FIU that was to report to the Ministry of the Interior, staffed by personnel from the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency and internal security service.

U.S. Congresswoman Sue Kelly, former chair of a House Financial Services subcommittee, described what she discovered about the Saudi FIU during a 2005 trip to the country. Despite being reassured by the Saudis that the unit was operational, she found that it consisted of "an empty floor in a building under construction." The kingdom has apparently made some progress since then. FinCEN, a cosponsor of the Saudis' Egmont application, performed its final onsite review in 2006, and the kingdom is being considered for possible membership in 2007. Meanwhile, the aforementioned State Department report noted a number of areas in which Saudi efforts against terrorism financing remain deficient. In particular, it cited the need for Riyadh to impose the same oversight on Saudi charities operating abroad as it has on domestic ones, and to increase its scrutiny of non-cash charitable gifts.

Kuwait, like Saudi Arabia, has an FIU, but it is not an Egmont member. Its unit is not an independent agency as required by Egmont, in that it has limited power to share the information it collects. The State Department reports that terrorism financing is still not a crime in Kuwait, assessing that such potential financing "through the misuse of charities continues to be a concern."

Although having an Egmont-certified FIU is an important element of effective financial counterterrorism strategy, this alone does not guarantee a sufficiently robust system. For example, the UAE is a member of Egmont but has still never convicted anyone for either terrorism financing or money laundering. This is problematic in a country where, as the State Department notes, "the threats of money laundering and terrorism financing are particularly acute."

Conclusion

Ensuring that key Middle Eastern countries are developing adequate measures to prevent terrorism financing should remain a top priority for U.S. policymakers. One key factor in making this determination is whether a country is an Egmont Group member (or is taking serious steps to become one). Beyond FIUs, policymakers should also closely monitor countries' success in criminalizing terrorism financing, prosecuting and convicting terrorism financiers, and overseeing the activities of charities and nongovernmental organizations. The United States can use a variety of multilateral forums to push this agenda, ranging from Egmont to the Financial Action Task Force to the UN. Although progress is likely to be gradual at best, policymakers' ongoing focus on these aspects of the fight against terrorism financing is time well spent, given how critical these issues are to U.S. security.

counterterrorismblog.org

China Space, Cyberspace War Gains Impress: US

2007-03-30T09:46:00.001-05:00

China's development of modern modes of warfare including military uses of outer space and cyberspace have yielded impressive gains that require U.S. vigilance, experts told a congressional panel on March 29.

The officials and security analysts told the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission that Chinaâ€™s military modernization also raises alarms because the communist government in Beijing remains secretive about its intentions.

Chinaâ€™s test-firing of a ballistic missile that pulverized one of its own satellites about 537 miles (865 km) above Earth was not a surprise because it was Beijingâ€™s third attempt, Gen. James Cartwright, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, said.

But he told the commission the much-criticized Jan. 11 anti-satellite test was "impressive how quickly they got the capability" and "should be a wake up call to others" about the systems China is pursuing in outer space.

"They have fielded a wide range of jamming and anti-satellite capabilities," Cartwright told a hearing in Washington a day after China called for a treaty to stop the spread of weapons in outer space.

In cyber warfare, China also had a well-organized program and "a long-term view, not a short-term view, in this activity and it will pay off," he said.

"Other nations are doing likewise, but I do not believe any have demonstrated the scale or the financial commitment to move in the direction that China has demonstrated," added Cartwright.

William Schneider of the Hudson Institute, a conservative Washington think tank, told the panel that China was "acquiring asymmetric capabilities that reflect a studied assessment of U.S. civil and military vulnerabilities."
These new capabilities complement Chinaâ€™s rapid build-up of conventional armaments such as missiles, warships and aircraft, he said.

"The scope, though not yet the scale of these investments, is consistent with global aspirations, but by most assessments, is excessive in relation to Chinaâ€™s regional security needs," said Schneider in remarks similar to Pentagon complaints.

"China has not responded to requests for greater transparency, leaving Chinaâ€™s defense modernization open to many alternative interpretations," he added.

Andrew Erickson of the China Maritime Studies Institute at the U.S. Naval War College told the commission Chinaâ€™s military build-up remained largely focused on Taiwan, the self-governing island over which Beijing claims sovereignty and has vowed to attack should Taipei declare independence.

"There is little evidence to show that the (Chinese navy) is developing the capabilities necessary to extend its ability to project power much beyond Chinaâ€™s claimed territorial waters," Erickson said.

Iran escalates crisis with Britain, saying it will not release female sailor

2007-03-30T09:41:00.000-05:00

LONDON: Iran leveled new accusations against Britain in the crisis over 15 captured British sailors on Thursday and withdrew a promise to free a woman sailor, insisting that Britain admit fault before its naval personnel are released.

Now in its seventh day, the crisis seemed to have reached a point where both sides have left the other little room for a face-saving compromise. A senior Iranian official, moreover, has hinted that the captured sailors might be put on trial for unspecified offenses. It is not clear what further counter-measures Britain might take. Iran has not said where the captured sailors are being held so the prospects of a rescue attempt - similar to the failed American bid to free the embassy hostages in April, 1980 - seemed uncertain.

The increasingly intractable dispute turns on rival claims as to the whereabouts of the British sailors when they were seized. Iran says they were more than 500 yards inside its territorial waters, but Britain produced satellite navigation coordinates Wednesday to support its contention that the sailors were 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi waters on patrols approved by the United Nations and the Iraqi government.

IRNA, the official Iranian news agency, quoted an Iranian naval official as taking Teheran's accusations significantly further, saying the Britons, in two inflatable, high-speed patrol boats from the frigate HMS Cornwall, had entered Iranian waters several times before they were seized. The Iranian official was quoted as saying Iran had film of the alleged intrusions. The Royal Navy says the sailors were "ambushed" as they completed an inspection of an Indian-flagged merchant ship in Iraqi waters.

IRNA also quoted from a letter sent by the Iranian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to the British Embassy in Teheran demanding British guarantees not to intrude into Iranian waters in the future.
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"The Islamic Republic of Iran severely protests against the violation of its territorial waters in the Persian Gulf and, while underlining the importance of international laws and respect for the sovereignty of nations, cautions the London government of the consequences of such violations," the letter was quoted as saying.

For its part, Britain said on Thursday that it would seek United Nations backing against Iran in the dispute, even as Iran hardened its stance over the planned release of Faye Turney, a 26-year-old mother of one, who is the only woman among the 15 sailors and Royal Marines captured in disputed waters on March 23.

Initially, Ali Larijani, the secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, had indicated she might still be freed if Britain retreated from its intention to seek United Nations backing. He said that "if we are faced with a fuss and wrong behavior," Seaman Turney's release "would be suspended and it would not take place."

Later, though, the Mehr news agency quoted a military commander, Alireza Afshar, as saying: "The release of a female British soldier has been suspended. The wrong behavior of those who live in London caused the suspension."

The crisis again sent oil prices above $64 per barrel, close to six month highs.

Britain has already secured European Union support for its insistence that Iran acted illegally in seizing the 15 sailors on March 23 in the waters of the northern Persian Gulf. The latest exchanges between Tehran and London seemed to show the two countries in eyeball-to-eyeball confrontation with neither side ready to blink.

A British official spokesman, speaking in return for customary anonymity, insisted that Britain would continue with efforts to coax the United Nations Security Council to support its demand for the release of the 15 captured sailors.

Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, attending a meeting in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, insisted that Britain must admit fault in the dispute to end the standoff, the Associated Press reported.

The dispute has added to the tensions between Iran and the West over Tehran's disputed nuclear program and other issues such as Iran's demand for the release of five Iranians held by American forces in Iraq.

On Wednesday, Britain said that it would freeze its official bilateral business with Iran. Iran responded by showing Seaman Turney on state-run television.

The crisis has left Prime Minister Tony Blair in a delicate position. Britain is in Iraq as a junior ally of the United States - a position that has cost him much of the political kudos he had accumulated when he took office almost 10 years ago.

He has promised to step down this summer so his final months could well be marred by the unpalatable vision of British sailors held by Iranian captors over whom he has no evident influence. The crisis this week has overshadowed completely what should have been a ringing success in Northern Ireland, where arch-rivals Gerry Adams and the Reverand Ian Paisley agreed to form a power-sharing government on May 8.

That would bolster Blair's ambitions to mold a legacy of achievement in a way that a protracted hostage crisis would not. British newspapers filled their front pages on Friday with photographs of Seaman Turney wearing a black Islamic head-scarf served to underline the awkward position Blair is in.

"The brutal truth is that Britain is not in a strong position," The Independent said in an editorial. "Whatever the complexities of maritime boundaries, whatever the position in international law, the reality is that Iran holds British sailors and, with them, most of the cards. Iran also has oil, and a contempt for international opinion that means any threat of further isolation will have only limited effect."

Ivory Coast rebel leader becomes PM

2007-03-30T09:39:00.000-05:00

ABIDJAN, Ivory Coast - Ivory Coast's president signed a decree Thursday naming a rebel leader prime minister as part of a power-sharing peace plan, a government spokesman said.

With the signature of President Laurent Gbagbo, rebel chief Guillaume Soro officially stepped into his new role under the plan to unite a country split between the rebel-held north and the government-controlled south.

After an attempted coup set off a brief civil war in 2002, Ivory Coast became divided. Numerous peace deals have failed to take hold.

The most recent accord signed March 4 in Ouagadougou, the capital of neighboring Burkina Faso, called for Soro to become prime minister and for elections within 10 months.

About 9,000 U.N. troops and 3,500 French soldiers are deployed in Ivory Coast, the world's largest cocoa producer, to ward off all-out civil war. Many patrol the giant buffer zone that runs east to west, dividing the country.

Gbagbo and Soro promised to organize a new government within five weeks and to pare down the buffer zone to a collection of checkpoints. They also agreed to start disarmament and to issue identification cards necessary for Ivorians to register to vote. The identity documents are an especially sensitive issue, because disputes over who was entitled to citizenship helped fuel the war.

U.S. won't hassle Mubarak over suppression of Brotherhood

2007-03-28T23:27:00.000-05:00

WASHINGTON — The Bush administration has decided to maintain support of the regime of Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak amid its crackdown on the opposition.

Officials said the State Department has directed the U.S. ambassador and other diplomats not to criticize Egypt. They said the Mubarak regime was besieged by the threat of the Muslim Brotherhood, deemed as extremely anti-American.
Officials said the administration has decided to refrain from criticizing Mubarak during his effort to revise the constitution. They said the State Department and White House have sought to avoid angering the 78-year-old Mubarak amid the U.S. effort to stabilize Iraq.

"We have found that criticism of Mubarak has always been counterproductive," an official said. "We don't want to be in the middle of what should be a domestic political event in Egypt."

As a result, the administration has been largely supportive of the Mubarak regime. Officials said that despite the crackdown on the opposition, Mubarak has been implementing democratic reforms in Egypt, which receives $1.3 billion in annual U.S. military aid.

"When you are able to at some point look back, you will see a general trend towards greater political reform, greater political openness, a more direct correlation between the will and needs and hopes of the Egyptian people and those whom they elect," State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said March 20.

McCormack cited Egypt's multi-party presidential and parliamentary elections as well as the recent appointment of 31 female judges as positive developments. He said the 2005 elections have "changed [the] face of the Egyptian parliament."

"Despite its longstanding rhetorical support for democratic reform, Washington's response to date has been tepid at best," a report by the Washington Institute said.

Still, the State Department has criticized Egypt for the imprisonment of opposition leaders, including former presidential candidate Ayman Nour, as well as the conviction of blogger Abdul Karim Suleiman. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice also expressed concern over the opposition boycott of Egypt's referendum on the revised constitution, scheduled for March 26.

"The hope was that this would be a process that gave voice to all Egyptians," Ms. Rice said on March 23 on her way to Cairo. "I think there's some danger that that hope is not going to be met. Right now I am concerned that it won't."

The Mubarak regime quickly responded and accused the United States of interfering in Egypt's domestic affairs. Egyptian Foreign Minister Ahmad Abu Al Gheit accused Ms. Rice of prejudging Cairo's reform process.

"Even if Egypt and the United States have a friendly, strategic relationship, Egypt can't accept interference in its affairs from any of its friends," Abu Al Gheit said.

Dissidents discover secret base is Bahraini royal playground

2007-03-28T23:24:00.000-05:00

ABU DHABI — Bahraini dissidents, thanks to Google Earth, have discovered that a so-called closed island military base was actually a royal playground.
A dissident blogger, speaking to a Rand Corp. seminar, detailed a closed Bahraini island claimed by the military. The blogger, Mahmoud Yusef, said the so-called military base, entitled Mohamadiya, was actually a lush palace protected by the Coast Guard.
"The place has been appropriated by the rich with the Coast Guard providing protection against outsiders," Yusef said.

[The assertion was relayed as parliamentarians debated freedom of expression in Bahrain, Middle East Newsline reported. Twenty-five deputies have opposed an investigation into alleged sexual content in the Spring of Culture festival.]

In an address on March 15 in the Qatari capital of Doha, Yusef said Bahrainis learned of Mohamadiya through Google Earth, located on the Internet. Google Earth offers maps and satellite images for precise regional searches.

Yusef said the Sunni kingdom has sought to battle bloggers and other elements of the media. A critic of Bahrain's agriculture minister, Yusef said he was summoned for police investigation and charged with defamation in a blog in December 2006.

"I criticized someone from the government who is a moron," Yusef said. "The Bahrain Journalists Association got involved and a deal was struck where I would have to change a few offensive words. But when they asked me to change comments made by others, I refused."

Bahrain, a Sunni regime that presides over a Shi'ite majority, has been regarded as the most liberal of the six Gulf Cooperation Council states. Home to the U.S. Fifth Fleet, the kingdom allows alcohol and has served as the watering hole for Western military and diplomatic personnel in the Gulf region.

"Bahrain has strong influences from Iraq, Saudi Arabia and Iran," Yusef said. "Nowadays people don't ask if one is Bahraini, but whether Shia or Sunni. It [the Bahraini government] is trying to do whatever they can to marginalize one sect [the Shi'ites]."

Yusef said Bahrain's Information Ministry has banned the media from discussing allegations by a former senior official that the Manama regime paid Shi'ites to convert to Sunni Islam. He said the ministry has also tried to force websites to register.

"The modus operandi is to muzzle journalists," Yusef said.

worldtribune

Russian intelligence sees U.S. military buildup on Iran border

2007-03-28T23:16:00.000-05:00

MOSCOW, March 27 (RIA Novosti) - Russian military intelligence services are reporting a flurry of activity by U.S. Armed Forces near Iran's borders, a high-ranking security source said Tuesday.

"The latest military intelligence data point to heightened U.S. military preparations for both an air and ground operation against Iran," the official said, adding that the Pentagon has probably not yet made a final decision as to when an attack will be launched.

He said the Pentagon is looking for a way to deliver a strike against Iran "that would enable the Americans to bring the country to its knees at minimal cost."

He also said the U.S. Naval presence in the Persian Gulf has for the first time in the past four years reached the level that existed shortly before the invasion of Iraq in March 2003.

Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences, said last week that the Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.

A new U.S. carrier battle group has been dispatched to the Gulf.

The USS John C. Stennis, with a crew of 3,200 and around 80 fixed-wing aircraft, including F/A-18 Hornet and Superhornet fighter-bombers, eight support ships and four nuclear submarines are heading for the Gulf, where a similar group led by the USS Dwight D. Eisenhower has been deployed since December 2006.

The U.S. is also sending Patriot anti-missile systems to the region.

Iran: Britain Must Admit Navy Trespassed

2007-03-28T23:14:00.000-05:00

RIYADH, Saudi Arabia (AP) - Iran's foreign minister said Wednesday that Britain must admit that its 15 sailors and marines entered Iranian waters in order to resolve a standoff over their capture by the Mideast nation.

Manouchehr Mottaki's statement in an interview with The Associated Press came on a day of escalating tensions, highlighted by an Iranian video of the detained Britons that showed the only woman captive saying her group had "trespassed" in Iranian waters. Britain angrily denounced the video as unacceptable and froze most dealings with the Mideast nation.

The Iranian official also backed off a prediction that the female sailor, Faye Turney, could be freed Wednesday or Thursday, but said Tehran agreed to allow British officials to meet with the detainees.

Mottaki said that if the alleged entry into Iranian waters was a mistake "this can be solved. But they have to show that it was a mistake. That will help us to end this issue."

"Admitting the mistake will facilitate a solution to the problem," he said late Wednesday night in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, where he was attending an Arab summit.

It was the first time that Iran has publicly suggested a way to resolve the crisis, but British acquiescence appeared unlikely as the country has been insisting since the crisis began that its troops were in Iraqi waters and released a GPS readout on Wednesday to back up the claim.

Britain's military said the readout proved the Royal Navy personnel were seized 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi waters. But in the interview, Mottaki said Iran had GPS devices from the British boats that showed they were in Iranian territory.

There was no immediate comment from the British to Mottaki's statement. A call to Britain's Foreign Office in London was not answered early Thursday.

British Prime Minister Tony Blair's government announced it was freezing all dealings with Iran except to negotiate the release of its personnel, adding to a public exchange of sharp comments that helped fuel a spike in world oil prices.

At the United Nations in New York, Britain asked the Security Council to support a call for the immediate release of detainees, saying in a statement they were operating in Iraqi waters under a mandate from the Security Council and at the request of Iraq, according to council diplomats, speaking on condition of anonymity because the text was not released. The issue was expected to be debated Thursday.

Earlier Wednesday, a brief video of the captured Britons was shown on Iran's Arabic language satellite television station, Al-Alam.

One segment showed sailors and marines sitting in an Iranian boat in open waters immediately after their capture.

The video also displayed what appeared to be a handwritten letter from Turney, 26, to her family.

"I have written a letter to the Iranian people to apologize for us entering their waters," it said. The letter also asks Turney's parents in Britain to look after her 3-year-old daughter, Molly, and her husband, Adam.

The video showed Turney in checkered head scarf and her uniform eating with other sailors and marines. Later, wearing a white tunic and black head scarf, she sat in a room before floral curtains and smoked a cigarette.

Turney was the only detainee to be shown speaking, giving her name and saying she had been in the navy for nine years.

"Obviously we trespassed into their waters," Turney said at one point, her voice audible under a simultaneous Arabic translation. "They were very friendly and very hospitable, very thoughtful, nice people. They explained to us why we've been arrested. There was no harm, no aggression."

In backing away from predictions that Turney could be freed Wednesday or Thursday, Mottaki said in the interview that Iran will look into releasing her "as soon as possible."

He said earlier the reports of her imminent release were incorrect. "I was probably misquoted," he said.

Earlier in the day, Mottaki told the AP: "Today or tomorrow, the lady will be released." The Turkish television station, CNN-Turk, had also reported him saying Wednesday she would be freed "today or tomorrow."

But the talk of releasing Turney did little to calm British anger.

Before the video was broadcast, a spokesman for Blair said any showing of British personnel on TV would be a breach of the Geneva Conventions.

After the footage was aired, Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett said she was "very concerned about these pictures and any indication of pressure on, or coercion of, our personnel. ... I am particularly disappointed that a private letter has been used in a way which can only add to the distress of the families."

The third Geneva Convention bans subjecting prisoners of war to intimidation, insults or "public curiosity." Because there is no armed conflict between Iran and Britain, the captives would not technically be classified as prisoners of war.

Blair told the House of Commons that "there was no justification whatever ... for their detention, it was completely unacceptable, wrong and illegal."

"We had hoped to see their immediate release; this has not happened. It is now time to ratchet up the diplomatic and international pressure in order to make sure the Iranian government understands its total isolation on this issue," he said.

Beckett said Britain would focus all its efforts on resolving the issue.

"We will, therefore, be imposing a freeze on all other official bilateral business with Iran until the situation is resolved. We will keep other aspects of our policy towards Iran under close review and continue to proceed carefully. But no one should be in any doubt about the seriousness with which we regard these events," she said.

The statement appeared to refer to diplomatic dealings rather than business relations, but Britain's Department of Trade said the country does not buy oil directly from Iran.

Oil prices rose by more than $1 a barrel Wednesday to a six-month high amid worries about the standoff, which came as the U.S. Navy is carrying out its largest show of force in the Persian Gulf since the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

President Bush discussed the 15 Britons with Blair over a secured video conference call Wednesday, White House deputy press secretary Dana Perino said. "The president fully backs Tony Blair and our allies in Britain," she said.

British officials have said the 15 Britons were taken captive after completing a search of a civilian ship near the mouth of the Shatt al-Arab waterway, which forms the border between Iran and Iraq.

In London, British military officials released new information about the seizure, saying satellite positioning readings showed the vessels were 1.7 nautical miles inside Iraqi waters.

Vice Adm. Charles Style gave the satellite coordinates as 29 degrees 50.36 minutes north latitude and 48 degrees 43.08 minutes east longitude. He said that position had been confirmed by an Indian-flagged merchant ship boarded by the sailors and marines.

He also told reporters the Iranians had provided a geographical position Sunday that he said was in Iraqi waters. By Tuesday, he said, Iranian officials had given a revised position 2 miles to the east, inside Iranian waters.

"It is hard to understand a legitimate reason for this change of coordinates," Style said.

AP

Iran ‘to try Britons for espionage’

2007-03-25T01:19:00.000-05:00

FIFTEEN British sailors and marines arrested by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards off the coast of Iraq may be charged with spying.

A website run by associates of Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, the Iranian president, reported last night that the Britons would be put before a court and indicted.

Referring to them as “insurgents”, the site concluded: “If it is proven that they deliberately entered Iranian territory, they will be charged with espionage. If that is proven, they can expect a very serious penalty since according to Iranian law, espionage is one of the most serious offences.”

The warning followed claims by Iranian officials that the British navy personnel had been taken to Tehran, the capital, to explain their “aggressive action” in entering Iranian waters. British officials insist the servicemen were in Iraqi waters when they were held.

The penalty for espionage in Iran is death. However, similar accusations of spying were made when eight British servicemen were detained in the same area in 2004. They were paraded blindfolded on television but did not appear in court and were freed after three nights in detention.

Iranian student groups called yesterday for the 15 detainees to be held until US forces released five Revolutionary Guards captured in Iraq earlier this year.

Al-Sharq al-Awsat, a Saudi-owned newspaper based in London, quoted an Iranian military source as saying that the aim was to trade the Royal Marines and sailors for these Guards.

The claim was backed by other sources in Tehran. “As soon as the corps’s five members are released, the Britons can go home,” said one source close to the Guards.

He said the tactic had been approved by Ayatollah Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader, who warned last week that Tehran would take “illegal actions” if necessary to maintain its right to develop a nuclear programme.

Iran denounced a tightening of sanctions which the United Nations security council was expected to agree last night in protest at Tehran’s insistence on enriching uranium that could be used for nuclear weapons.

Lord Triesman, the Foreign Office minister, met the Iranian ambassador in London yesterday to demand that consular staff be allowed access to the Britons, one of whom is a woman. His intervention came as a senior Iranian general alleged that the Britons had confessed under interrogation to “aggression into Iran’s waters”.

Intelligence sources said any advance order for the arrests was likely to have come from Major-General Yahya Rahim Safavi, the commander of the Revolutionary Guards.

Subhi Sadek, the Guards’ weekly newspaper, warned last weekend that the force had “the ability to capture a bunch of blue-eyed blond-haired officers and feed them to our fighting cocks”.

Safavi is known to be furious about the recent defections to the West of three senior Guards officers, including a general, and the effect of UN sanctions on his own finances.

A senior Iraqi officer appeared to back Tehran’s claim that the British had entered Iranian waters. “We were informed by Iraqi fishermen after they had returned from sea that there were British gunboats in an area that is out of Iraqi control,” said Brigadier-General Hakim Jassim, who is in charge of Iraq’s territorial waters. “We don’t know why they were there.”

Admiral Sir Alan West, the former head of the Royal Navy, dismissed suggestions that the British boats might have been in Iranian waters. West, who was first sea lord when the previous arrests took place in June 2004, said satellite tracking systems had shown then that the Iranians were lying and the same was certain to be true now.

times online

China, Venezuela to cement ties with oil deals

2007-03-24T20:20:00.000-05:00

CARACAS (Reuters) - Venezuela said on Saturday it was working on a raft of oil deals with China, giving impetus to President Hugo Chavez's attempts to break his country's dependence on oil exports to the United States.

The China National Petroleum Corp. will look to develop heavy crude oil production in the Orinoco Belt and cooperate with Venezuela in building three refineries in China and a "super-fleet" of crude tankers, the Information Ministry said.

"The United States as a power is on the way down, China is on the way up. China is the market of the future," Chavez was quoted as saying by an Information Ministry statement after meeting CNPC President Jiang Jiemin in Caracas.

China's economic expansion has turned it into the world's second-biggest oil consumer. OPEC member Venezuela was the fifth-biggest oil exporter to the United States in January. Analysts reckon it pumps about 2.7 million barrels per day.

Chavez has ambitious plans to lift oil exports to China to lessen its dependence on its arch-foe the United States, saying it hopes to send 1 million barrels per day to China by 2012.

This optimistic target follows an earlier goal of more than tripling oil exports to China of 160,000 bpd by 2009.

The Information Ministry said CNPC would sign on Monday a preliminary deal to take a 40 percent stake in various Venezuelan heavy crude projects.

CNPC is already working in the Junin 4 block but Chavez said the Chinese oil giant wanted to expand its Orinoco operations with "billions of dollars" of investment.

Chavez is pushing ahead with a nationalization of Venezuela's oil industry, stripping major U.S. companies such as Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM.N), ConocoPhillips (COP.N) and Chevron Corp. (CVX.N) of their majority stakes in heavy crude projects.

While sidelining such majors, Chavez is seeking to do more business with China, Russia and Iran, part of forming what he describes as a multipolar alliance against the United States.

He said the three proposed refineries in China would process 800,000 bpd of Venezuelan crude. The proposed new tanker fleet would not just run China-Venezuela routes but also operate in the Caribbean and take shipments to Africa, Chavez said.

Although Venezuela has signed many memorandums of understanding on commercial cooperation with countries in the developing world, many of the proposals have been very slow to turn into anything concrete.

In a sign that Venezuela's ties to China hinge on politics as well as commerce, Li Changchun, who sits of the Chinese Communist Party's omnipotent nine-member Politburo Standing Committee, will visit Venezuela next week.

EU politics: The enduring strength of transatlantic relations

2007-03-24T12:02:00.000-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

Four years ago, the US-led invasion of Iraq triggered the most serious rift in transatlantic relations since 1945 as well as among EU member states themselves. Although some fall-out from the split over Iraq remains, talk of the two continents drifting apart is misplaced. Indeed, relations between Europe and the US are returning to normal.

More to unite than divide

During the traumatic days of early 2003, a great deal of analysis and comment focused on explaining the divisions that had emerged by reference to attitudes towards the use of force, perhaps most vividly captured by US academic Robert Kagan, in his essay “Of Paradise and Power”. Mr Kagan (an advocate of the Iraq invasion) described Europeans as inhabiting the world of perpetual peace envisaged by the German enlightenment philosopher Immanuel Kant. As a result, they had become incapable of dealing with other states that did not play the international relations game by their rules, whereby disagreements are solved in the committee rooms of Brussels by grinding out reasoned compromise.

There was, and is, much to this analysis. Europeans countries spend far less on defence than the does US and they are often reluctant to engage in military activity even when they agree that such action is both justified and necessary. For example, many European members of NATO declined to participate in the 1999 conflict with Slobodan Milosevic's Yugoslavia, while the US undertook the overwhelming majority of the military action. To the US, this unwillingness to use force, even in a region bordering the EU, remains a source of frustration. But it would be wrong to overstate this as a factor in undermining transatlantic ties, mainly because this difference has existed for decades--in the 1960s even the UK declined to involve itself in Vietnam, in the 1970s West Germany's policy of "Ostpolitik" towards the Soviet Union was far too placatory for American tastes, and in the 1980s many Europeans feared that the US plan for a “star wars” missile defence system risked upsetting the strategic balance in Europe (an issue that has resurfaced today).

It is hard to argue, therefore, that there is a widening gulf between the sides on resort to force in international affairs. Rather it is one that they have managed to live with for decades. It would also be wrong to overstate European pacifism. Sizeable European contingents fought alongside the US in the first Gulf War in the early 1990s, 25 of the EU’s 27 member states have forces deployed in Afghanistan (although most not in the area of fighting) and 12 still have a presence in Iraq. Moreover, Germany, the EU’s largest member state, is gradually increasing its military engagement after decades of non-involvement. This makes the prospect of Europe punching up to its weight in the world more likely in the future.

And what of the US: is it becoming more belligerent and bullying as some in Europe and elsewhere claim? The case to be made that the US is becoming more aggressive is certainly stronger than the case for an ever more cowering and cowardly Europe, but this is based almost entirely on the Iraq war, which was an aberration rather than the start of a unilateralist trend. To see why, one need only consider briefly the context in which 9/11 took place.

Although the cold war had been over for a decade by September 2001, the US was still seeking to define a new posture in a world without a Soviet threat. Competing ideas existed, but the emergence of al-Qaida as a serious menace to the American homeland, and the rapid victory over the Taliban in Afghanistan, gave credence to the view that the US had underestimated and under-used its unique power. These neo-conservative voices persuaded President George Bush that the US's military preponderance meant that the administration no longer needed to shore-up unpleasant regimes, but could sweep them away, leaving fertile ground for democracies to flourish. This, they argued, was the only way to guarantee American security in the long run because in democracies people are too busy enjoying freedom to engage in terror. But the neo-conservative account of the transformative potential of US power has been discredited by its failure to deliver stability in Iraq, and, to a lesser extent, by the electoral success of Hamas in the Palestinian territories and Hizbullah in Lebanon. Thus, the brief period in which America attempted to spread democracy through military means now appears over.

More humility and less hubris in Washington

This comes as a great relief to Europe, where even the staunchest Atlanticists in diplomatic circles were appalled by the hubris of some US officials at the height of the neo-conservative influence. In the second Bush term, the humility in foreign affairs that the president had promised when campaigning for election in 2000 has became evident, and a determined effort is being made to mend fences. Mr Bush’s first foreign visit after re-election, for instance, was to the EU. This was significant not only because he was the first US president to recognise the EU in this way, but also because it signalled a definitive rejection of “disaggregation”, a policy of divide and conquer towards the EU advocated by some in his first administration.

The American olive branch has been enthusiastically accepted. Those Europeans who opposed the war—arguing that it would open a Middle-East Pandora’s box feel—vindicated but are not gloating, in large part to avoid transatlantic relations again sinking to that 2003 low point. They are also determined to show that they are serious about tough security issues, which may explain their intense efforts at trying to halt Iran’s nuclear programme and their close co-operation with the US at the UN to impose sanctions on the Islamic Republic. Though there are differences—the US wishes to ratchet up those sanctions rapidly, while the Europeans prefer a more gradual approach—they have remained united in the face of the threat, despite Iran’s best efforts to divide them.

Economic interests are eternal

But because Europeans know that their clout in hard security issues internationally is limited they have often focused reconciliation efforts in other spheres, most notably in economic affairs. Current proposals by the German chancellor, Angela Merkel, to use her country's presidency of the EU in the first half of 2007 to launch a major initiative aimed at deepening economic integration in the transatlantic space is only the latest example. Even without considering Ms Merkel's big idea, huge energy is already being expended at the political and policy levels to remove many of the remaining obstacles to doing transatlantic business. Though disagreements are plentiful--some intractable, others merely technical--the two sides are talking about the Doha multilateral trade round, bilateral trade issues, competition policy, harmonisation of accounting standards, public procurement, aviation, financial services regulation and much more. Little illustrates the normality of transatlantic relations better than the daily interaction between European and American officials as they go about their problem-solving business.

Business as usual

If transatlantic relations are back on an even keel at the official level, the damage done by Iraq remains at the popular level. Positive European sentiment towards the US is far lower than it was before the Iraq invasion, according to opinion polls, and many of the continent's media often display a visceral dislike of President Bush which distorts reporting of his administration's actions and its dealings with other countries. Four years on, it seems unlikely that he will ever find a place in European hearts. But his term in office ends in less than two years, and a new president is expected to enjoy a rise in European support. Europeans know that in terms of values and interests, they are closer to the US any other part of the world. Although disagreements will inevitably persist, given the unique scope of the relationship, considerable political will exists to solve them. The portentous talk of Europe and America drifting apart has not occurred. Nor is it likely to in the foreseeable future. The ties stretching across the Atlantic are too many and too strong to allow that to happen.

Pentagon & CIA to Bury Hatchet?

2007-03-23T11:52:00.000-05:00

The Pentagon’s intelligence people and the CIA were at each other’s throats during Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure as defense secretary. They now seem ready to share information.

Early this month the director of national intelligence (DNI) signed a document entitled “unified cross domain management office charter” laying out procedures allowing the Pentagon to share classified information with the country’s leading intelligence agencies. Hitherto, the absence of such a charter had been used by the Department of Defense to justify withholding information. The formal establishment of information-sharing procedures between the DoD and DNI could well be the first step towards a new division of labour between the Pentagon and the U.S. intelligence community. During Donald Rumsfeld’s tenure as defense secretary, Stephen Cambone, the undersecretary of defense for intelligence, had set up an intelligence unit inside the Pentagon, the Strategic Support Branch, which operated independently and was headed by lieutenant-general William Boykin at Fort Bragg.

In May of last year, Robert Gates, former CIA boss who replaced Rumsfeld at the Pentagon in November, wrote an op-ed in the Washington Post criticising the Pentagon’s strategy and deploring the DoD’s distrust of the CIA. During his confirmation hearings in December, Gates reiterated that position. However, a revamp of the Pentagon’s intelligence units is unlikely to take place before general James Clapper, former head of the Defense Intelligence Agency (DIA) and the National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGO) is confirmed in his new job of undersecretary of defense for intelligence. No date for a confirmation hearing has yet been set by the Senate. The acting undersecretary at present is Robert Andrews who, like Gates, is a CIA veteran.

Iran holding 15 British sailors

2007-03-23T09:31:00.000-05:00

At least 15 British sailors are being detained by Iranian navy vessels in the Gulf.

The British Ministry of Defence confirmed the detainment, adding that it was "urgently" seeking clarification from Tehran.

Details of the incident remained sketchy.

“The British government is demanding the immediate and safe return of our people and equipment,” the Defence Ministry in London said, adding that the sailors had been detained after a routine boarding of a merchant ship in Iraqi waters.

Foreign Secretary Margaret Beckett summoned the Iranian ambassador to seek clarification over the incident, which comes amid mounting tension between Tehran and the West over its nuclear program.

"At approximately 10.30 Iraqi time this morning, 15 British naval personnel, engaged in routine boarding operations of merchant shipping in Iraqi territorial waters ... were seized by Iranian naval vessels,'' the ministry said.

"The boarding party had completed a successful inspection of a merchant ship when they and their two boats were surrounded and escorted by Iranian vessels into Iranian territorial waters.

"We are urgently pursuing this matter with the Iranian authorities at the highest level and on the instructions of the Foreign Secretary, the Iranian ambassador has been summoned to the Foreign Office.

News reports had originally suggested that there were American military personnel among those detained in the Shatt al-Arab waterway close to the southern stretch of Iraq's border with Iran.

However, the US Navy later said none of its military personnel were involved.

"We can confirm that there are no US military involved or held in this incident,'' a spokesman for US Naval Central Command said.

Pakistani al-Qaeda camps destroyed

2007-03-22T23:57:00.000-05:00

A week of fighting between al-Qaeda loyalists and tribal militants in a remote Pakistani border region has almost completely destroyed camps used by a leading terrorist from Uzbekistan, Pakistani intelligence officials claimed on Thursday.

The claim, if true, could mark not only a success in Pakistan’s war against militants hiding on its soil, but could also vindicate Pakistan’s position on two controversial agreements signed by the government with tribal elders in the region bordering Afghanistan.

General Pervez Musharraf, Pakistan’s military ruler, last year ordered his troops home from the North Waziristan border region after deals that would see local tribal elders policing the region themselves. The move has been widely criticised as giving freer rein for militants to launch cross-border attacks into Afghanistan on US and Nato forces.

Pakistani intelligence officials, however, claimed on Thursday, after a week of fighting that left more than 100 people dead, the infrastructure used by loyalists of Tahir Yuldashev, the pro al-Qaeda militant, had been wiped out. More than half the people killed so far were said to be Uzbek Islamists who took refuge on the Pakistani side of the border after US-led forces ousted the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001.

“There’s no way to confirm if Yuldashev himself may be dead. But what I know for certain is that his group has suffered heavy casualties,” said one Pakistani intelligence official. “It’s hard to imagine if the Uzbeks have any firepower remaining to carry on in the tribal areas”.

Western diplomats warned that there was no way of independently confirming the claim. “Since the Pakistanis do not let anyone from the outside to freely venture around the tribal areas, it’s impossible to know what is happening,” said one.

Abdul Sattar, Pakistan’s former foreign minister, said the challenge of militancy in the tribal areas was too complex to be resolved quickly.

“The people of the tribal area are fed up of militants present among them. But the militants have had a long-term presence in the tribal areas. You can’t get rid of them in one go.”

Iran accuses West of 'psychological war'

2007-03-21T14:39:00.000-05:00

PRESIDENT Mahmoud Ahmadinejad today accused some big powers of waging psychological warfare against Iran, which is facing the prospect of tougher UN sanctions over its nuclear program.

His televised address to mark the Iranian New Year made clear again that Iran's leadership has no intention of bowing to pressure and halting sensitive nuclear activities, which the United States says is a cover for building atom bombs.

The UN Security Council is discussing a resolution that would impose new penalties on Iran for refusing to suspend its uranium enrichment work. Enriched uranium can be used to fuel power plants, or if highly enriched, to make nuclear weapons.

Iran, the world's fourth largest oil exporter, says the program is peaceful and intended to produce electricity.

"By psychological warfare, propaganda and misuse of the organisations they have themselves created ... they are trying to prevent our nation's development," Mr Ahmadinejad said.

He has previously accused the United States and Britain of using the Security Council as a tool against Iran.

Mr Ahmadinejad also appeared to hit out at a Hollywood blockbuster called 300 that depicts a 480BC battle between Greeks and Persians. Iranian officials and the public see the film as a Western attempt to vilify Iran's image.

"Today they are trying to tamper with history by making a film and by making Iran's image look savage," he said.

The proposed UN resolution would embargo Iranian arms exports and freeze financial assets abroad of 28 individuals, groups and companies.

It is a follow-up to a previous resolution adopted by the Security Council in December and was expected to be voted on this week after Germany and permanent council members Britain, China, France, Russia and the United States agreed on the text.

But South Africa, the council's current chair, has called for all the main proposed sanctions to be dropped. The council could probably adopt the measure without South African backing, but the major powers had wanted it passed unanimously.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said amendments proposed by South Africa and Indonesia deserved "attentive consideration".

He also said Russia, which has commercial and political ties to Tehran, would not back "excessive sanctions" against Iran.

Russian officials say they share Western concerns about a nuclear-armed Iran but argue a policy of constructive engagement can prevent this more effectively than one that corners Tehran.

"We earlier agreed to act on Iran gradually and proportionately ... We will not support excessive sanctions," Mr Lavrov told the lower house of Russia's parliament, without specifying what measures Moscow would consider excessive.

He said: "South Africa and Indonesia have proposed amendments which among other things underline the global nature of non-proliferation and we believe these amendments deserve the most attentive consideration."

Earlier this week Russia denied a newspaper report that it had threatened to halt work on building Iran's Bushehr nuclear power station unless Tehran stopped uranium enrichment.

But diplomats in Washington and Europe said Moscow had linked sending Tehran nuclear fuel to proliferation concerns.

Separately, diplomats said Switzerland recently sent a senior official to Iran to discuss a proposal aimed at resolving the nuclear crisis, despite opposition by big Western powers.

The proposal would permit Iran to keep its current uranium enrichment array of several hundred centrifuges. Iran could run the centrifuges but would agree not to feed any processed uranium hexafluoride (UF6) into them while it negotiates a package of incentives with six world powers.

Although key Western powers are dismissive, the idea could complicate their drive to ratchet up sanctions on Tehran since both the UN nuclear watchdog and Iran are considering it favourably, the diplomats said.

US-Azerbaijan energy deal reduces Russian influence

2007-03-21T13:36:00.000-05:00

EVENT
The US and Azerbaijan are to sign a major new energy pipeline deal, US Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs Matthew Bryza announced on 19 March.

This major energy project would create an energy corridor from Central Asia to Europe, completely bypassing the Russian Federation. It seems the US is offering its support to this project as this would play a key role in decreasing Moscow's influence in the region. Russia has traditionally used its monopoly on export routes and the imposition of increased gas and oil prices to gain leverage over states in its near abroad. By diversifying the export options of the energy producing countries in the region, such as Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, it can allow them to follow increasingly independent foreign policies.

FORECAST
The construction of the pipelines will certainly offer valuable new alternatives for the export of Caspian and Central Asian energy in the medium term. However, the engagement may have been undertaken too late to provide much leverage in Central Asia where Russia and China have already undertaken major efforts to secure influence and access to energy.

Iran politics: Sanctions spanner

2007-03-21T13:19:00.000-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

The fresh sanctions that the UN Security Council is considering for Iran are not, at first sight, particularly harsh. They are focused on companies, individuals and banks deemed to be involved in the nuclear fuel programme and in missile development, and include a ban on Iranian weapons exports, although not on arms purchases. An embargo on direct lending to the Iranian government has also been proposed, but may ultimately be dropped in deference to the concerns of some Council members to soften the sanctions package. The oil and gas sector will not be directly affected, enabling Iran to continue to reap the benefits of selling some 2.6m barrels/day of oil at over US$50/b (as well as covering its fuel supply gap with imports of the equivalent of some 200,000 b/d of gasoline). Most categories of imports will also be, formally, unaffected.

Collateral damage

Nevertheless, the initial sanctions, approved at the end of last year, and the general political tensions surrounding the nuclear dispute have already had a serious indirect impact on business in Iran, owing to the disruption of finance for both trade and projects, as banks and export credit guarantee agencies have grown increasingly concerned at the medium- and long-term risks. The changes in the balance of political power within Iran have contributed to the problem. The parliamentary and presidential elections in 2004 and 2005 bolstered the position of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), whose affiliated companies have taken a large slice of the major contracts awarded over the past two years in the infrastructure and oil and gas sectors. Khatam-ol-Anbia (Ghorb), the engineering arm of the IRGC, has, for example, won contracts for a gas pipeline, the development of phases 15 and 16 of the South Pars gasfield and for work on the next phase of the Tehran metro, quoting prices that could not be matched by local and foreign competitors. However, several IRGC-affiliated companies are thought to be included in an annex to the draft sanctions resolution, listing firms and individuals whose external assets could be frozen. This will create difficulties for IRGC contractors procuring equipment from abroad for their projects, which goes some way to explaining why the Iranian government is working so hard to prevent the sanctions being approved in their current form.

The impact of the squeeze on business with Iran has already shown up in trade and credit statistics of major suppliers. According to figures obtained by Bloomberg, Germany's total exports to Iran declined by 6% year on year in 2006 to €4.1bn, while export credit guarantees dropped to €904m from €1.45bn in 2005. (Iran tops the list of countries with total outstanding risk to the German federal government, at €5.5bn as of end-June 2006.) A survey conducted by Germany's DIHK chambers of commerce found that 10% of 120 companies doing business with Iran had felt informal pressure to reduce trade, according to Bloomberg. A further 16% said that they were starting to experience such pressure.

Dubai's gain…and possible pain

In 2003 the UAE took over from Germany the position of largest exporter to Iran, according to UN figures. These sales, mostly in the form of re-exports through Dubai, more than doubled over the subsequent two years, reaching US$7.3bn in 2005, with the UAE's share of total exports to Iran rising from 12% to 19% over the same period. Indications from the US administration that it is considering imposing stricter export controls for US-origin goods trans-shipped through the UAE, as part of the squeeze on Iran, have therefore been met with some alarm in the Gulf state. However, according to an unnamed US official quoted by the Financial Times, the administration has no immediate plans to include the UAE on a new list of countries designated "destinations of diversion concern". The official described a UAE export control law, which was recently approved by the cabinet, as a positive development.

Russia's stakes

Iran is also a significant export market for Russia, whose sales in 2005 were just over US$1bn. Part of this was presumably connected with the construction of the Bushehr nuclear power station, which has been the subject of some sharp recent exchanges between the Russian and Iranian parties involved. Russia claims that Iran has failed to meet its agreed payments schedule, and has cited this as the reason for failing to start deliveries of enriched uranium fuel for the 1,000-mw plant. Iran has denied dragging its feet on payments--although there is evidence of some disruptions caused by the Tehran government's decision to switch from dollars to euros in settling its accounts for the project. US and European diplomats have suggested that Russia has in effect told Iran that there can be no question of the fuel being delivered as long as Iran continues to defy UN Security Council resolutions calling on it to suspend its own enrichment activities. This suggestion has been hotly denied by Russia, which insists that there is no linkage between Bushehr and the wider nuclear dispute. Iran has branded Russia an unreliable partner, which casts doubt on the viability of a longstanding compromise proposal, whereby Iran would be given access to Russian facilities to carry out the critical phases of uranium enrichment, so as to ensure that there could be no military application.

Russia has at the same time called for part of the draft sanctions resolution to be modified, in response to reservations expressed by South Africa (the current chairman of the Security Council), Qatar and Indonesia. South Africa has called for a 90-days cooling-off period before any new sanctions are decided, and is said to have recommended that most of the fresh measures envisaged in the new resolution be deleted. Iran's foreign minister, Manouchehr Mottaki, expressed his appreciation of South Africa's stance during a visit to Cape Town on March 20th, during which he met President Thabo Mbeki. Iran is a major supplier of oil to South Africa, with sales worth some US$2.2bn in 2005; South Africa's MTN, the holder of the country's second mobile-phone licence, is also one of the biggest recent foreign investors in Iran. Mr Mottaki travelled on to Indonesia, in an effort to bolster the effort to limit the scope of the new sanctions by appealing to another influential member of the Security Council that is concerned to avoid being seen as part of a Western campaign to demonise a fellow Islamic nation.

The Economist Intelligence Unit

U.S. concerned by Russian arms sales to Iran, Syria

2007-03-21T10:20:00.000-05:00

BRUSSELS, March 21 (Reuters) - The United States expressed concern on Wednesday about Russia's arms sales to Iran, Syria and Venezuela and accused Moscow of bullying its neighbours.

Speaking in Brussels before talks with EU officials, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State David Kramer welcomed Russian cooperation on issues such as counter-terrorism and the nuclear crises with Iran and North Korea and Middle East tensions.

But he also highlighted what Washington saw as negative aspects of Russian policy complicating post-Cold War relations.

"We have areas on which we disagree and those issues include the internal situation in Russia, some aggressive pressure policies against neighbouring states," he told a news briefing.

"We have serious concerns about Russian arms sales to states we feel countries should not be engaging, such as Iran, such as Syria and also ... Venezuela as well."

However he said there had been no significant change in the U.S.-Russia relations since Russian President Vladimir Putin accused the United States last month of seeking to impose its will on the world with dangerous policies.

"None of us wants to see a return to Cold War, we have been through one and that was enough," he said. "Our hope is to move forward with Russia in a way that we pursue common interests."

Kramer also said Washington hoped for positive developments in strained relations between Russia and new EU states like Poland that were once Soviet satellites.

"The challenge for the entire EU is to try to figure out a path and direction to improve relations to advance everyone's interests," he said.

Kramer said he could not rule out the possibility of a Russian veto of a U.N. resolution on the breakaway Serb province of Kosovo, which the West hopes to see move to statehood.

Concerns about Russia's internal policies ranged from concentration of power and pressures on the media, political opponents and non-governmental organisations.

"Trends unfortunately are not going in the right direction," he said. "We have concerns, worries about the trends."

Tensions between Georgia and Russia had eased since a crisis last year, Kramer said, but he warned that the region remained "very unstable and still has the potential to explode".

"Our hope and goal is that Russia and Georgia work constructively to lower the tension," he said, adding that conflicts in breakaway Georgian regions had the potential to spill over into the Northern Caucasus region including Chechnya.

Kramer said the United States was not trying to impose its values on Russia but did seek to encourage democratic progress.

"Russia is not the Soviet Union," he said. "There has been significant progress over the years. But it's our feeling that there is room for more progress."

The Ringleaders of the Bosnia-Herzegovina Wahhabi Movement

2007-03-21T10:18:00.000-05:00

By Anes Alic
Recent incidents in two Bosnian cities between Bosnian Muslims and a group of radical Islamists illustrate just how deep their mutual animosity runs. The incidents also finally expose the names of some of the ringleaders of the Bosnia-Herzegovina Wahhabi movement, some of whom are linked to international terrorist networks. A month ago, Jusuf Barcic, a Bosnian national and self-proclaimed sheikh, and his followers tried to enter the Careva (Czar's) mosque in Sarajevo on several occasions. Barcic is an aggressive preacher calling for a return to traditional Islam, which is supported by the radical Wahhabis in Bosnia. To prevent problems, local Islamic authorities, who banned the Wahhabi movement a decade ago, are keeping the mosque under lock and key for the first time in its 500-year history.

The incidents did not begin in the capital, Sarajevo, but rather several months ago in Barcic's hometown of Kalesija, in northeastern Bosnia, when some 150 followers of Barcic—mostly Bosnian nationals, but also naturalized citizens from Islamic countries—occupied a building belonging to the Islamic community to preach their faith, an act which differs from usual Islamic practices of Bosnian Muslims. Local Muslims sealed the mosque where Barcic's followers lived and Barcic used for his teaching. A fight broke out after the locals threw out the Wahhabis' belongings from the mosque and set fire to them. The fight was broken up by special police forces. The locals point out that Barcic has been calling them infidels for years and asking all the local women to cover themselves with scarves. He has been telling them that they are not allowed to play music in their homes and that they should hardly ever leave their homes at night (Dnevni Avaz, March 11). Barcic, a former cleric, started preaching radical Islam after he returned from schooling in Saudi Arabia in 1996. In 2001, a local court sentenced him to seven months in jail. Barcic has also collected a number of outstanding traffic tickets, but since he does not accept the civilian government and its laws as legitimate, he refuses to obey the laws, including stopping at red lights, according to a public police report.

It appears, however, that Barcic was not the organizer of the incidents in Sarajevo and Kalesija. Instead, new information shows that a man always seen close to Barcic, Karray Kamel bin Ali, is the mastermind behind the recent incidents. Kamel bin Ali, alias Abu Hamza, is Tunisian born, but has Bosnian citizenship. He and Barcic shared prison time together, and he was released several months ago. Wartime commander of the mujahideen unit in Bosnia, Abu Hamza became known to the Bosnian public after he murdered Egyptian Hisham Diab, alias Abu Velid, in 1997 in the central Bosnian city of Zenica. After managing to evade arrest for three years, Abu Hamza was finally brought down in Germany in 2000 and deported to Bosnia, where he was sentenced to seven years in prison. An investigation into the case, however, showed that the real Hisham Diab was still alive and an active member of an organization called "New Jihad" and a former close associate of the radical Egyptian cleric Omar Abdel-Rahman, who is serving a life sentence for the 1993 World Trade Center bombing. The identity of the person Abu Hamza killed in Zenica remains unknown.

According to police information, Abu Hamza arrived in Bosnia at the beginning of the war in 1992, and obtained Bosnian citizenship after marrying a Bosnian woman. A Bosnian police source, close to the investigation of Abu Hamza, told The Jamestown Foundation on March 15 that Abu Hamza was part of a 15-20 member group of Egypt's militant Gama'a al-Islamiyya that arrived in Zenica and Travnik in 1992. During his stay in Bosnia, Abu Hamza used several names and falsified documents. He used the names: El Akil Abdellah Ahmed, born in Yemen; Bega Kamel, born in Libya; and five other names with Yemeni and Libyan documents each with different places of birth and dates. While in prison, Abu Hamza saw several different criminal investigations launched against him, including one for the murder of a Bosnian Croat policeman and another for the torturing of non-Muslim refugee returnees.

In 2001, Italy sent a request for his extradition, but Bosnian authorities refused because of Abu Hamza's Bosnian citizenship. The Bosnian police source said that Italy sought Abu Hamza's extradition for the suspected planning of suicide attacks in Italy, including one plot to kill the Pope during his visit to Bologna in September 1997. For the same crimes, Italy also requested the extradition of Abu Hamza's associates, also naturalized Bosnian citizens, which included Tunisian Khalil Jarray and Yemeni Saleh Nidal, both members of the Algerian Armed Islamic Group (GIA). The two were arrested by international forces in Bosnia on terrorism charges, but were quickly released after Italy failed to send enough details to sustain their warrants. Their whereabouts are now unknown. The two suspects held Bosnian citizenship until 2001 when it was revoked by the government in Sarajevo.

Still, police believe that the main financier behind Barcic's group is a former Bosnian Muslim cleric, Muhamed Porca, who heads a Vienna-based Islamic community administrative unit. Porca, who was Barcic's colleague from his studies in Saudi Arabia, calls for establishing a parallel Islamic community in Bosnia, which would lean toward radical Islam. Last year, Porca donated a car to Barcic, which was confiscated by police after traffic incidents and irregular documents, according to a source in an anti-terrorism federal police unit.

The incidents, though not terribly significant in and of themselves, could be indications of a developing situation in which Bosnia will see an intensified struggle between members of the radical Wahhabi movement and moderate Bosnian Muslims. This development coincides with a recent statement by the grand mufti of Bosnia, Mustafa Ceric, in which he suggested that all problems with radical Muslims in Bosnia are imported from radical Muslims of other countries. On March 6, Barcic's father, Salih Barcic, told the Sarajevo Weekly, Start, that Wahhabis here must "either respect Bosnian Muslims or to go back to Saudi Arabia."

GIMF Releases New Doctrinal Lessons for Mujahideen

2007-03-21T10:16:00.000-05:00

By Chris Heffelfinger

The latest in a year-long series on proper beliefs and doctrine of the mujahid was released on March 14 by the Global Islamic Media Front. The series, entitled "Lessons in Doctrine (Prepared for the Mujahideen)" is a program prepared specifically for the mujahideen of Iraq (http://www.alfirdaws.org/vb/). The materials have been posted on the most widely used forums—alfirdaws.org, tajdeed.co.uk, the sites of Kuwaiti cleric Hamid bin 'Ali and others—and the contents have been widely read and reposted. Such online materials have been a mainstay of the Salafi education curriculum for mujahideen since the mid-1990s, although now they are finding a wider readership largely due to technological developments and the appeal of the culture of jihad on internet forums. Such literature is described in Arabic as manhaj, best translated as "program," here referring to a doctrinal program for the believer—essentially a programmatic reader for the mujahid-in-training that instructs him on correct Islamic beliefs and practices.

The first in the series was released in February 2006. GIMF describes learning the "correct" doctrine as a blessing from God "that must be one's first concern, as doctrine is the basis upon which we build religion, and the source of the integrity of action and conduct." The author follows this with Quranic verse and more emphasis on the importance of the correct doctrine, and that it be the guide for the believer in speech and action. The first installment was dominated by Quranic verse and sayings of the Prophet, and leaves specifics for the following lessons. The programs that follow in the series are heavy on quotations from Ibn Taymiyya, Ibn al-Qayyam and Muhammed Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab, covering aspects of the oneness of God and the dangers of polytheism and disbelief. These are the basic tenets of Salafi Islam, based on the movement created by Ibn 'Abd al-Wahhab and based theologically on the writings of the medieval Hanafi scholar Ibn Taymiyya and his most prolific student, Ibn al-Qayyam. Above all, these emphasize the oneness of Allah and the risks of disbelief (practiced by many Muslims, according to Salafis) of associating other forms of divinity with Him. The doctrine of God's oneness is fundamental to Islam and appeals to Muslims from a wide spectrum of beliefs, not only those already aligned with Salafis.

This series also cites the work of Nasr al-Din al-Albani, a prominent Saudi cleric of Albanian origin who died in 1999. By citing the leaders of the Saudi Salafi establishment, the author attempts to associate al-Albani with the jihadi movement, thereby appropriating his legitimacy in the eyes of many Muslims who hold respect for the religious institutions in Mecca and Medina. Although the Saudi Salafi establishment breaks with Salafi-Jihadis over armed confrontation with the West, there are a great many similarities in belief between Salafis under the influence of the Saudi royal family and those under the influence of Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri. The risk for the United States and its allies in the war on terrorism is that these Muslims could fall outside the influence of the Saudi institutions, which are only restrained from jihad by the House of Saud and its alliance with the United States, and join the ranks of the global jihadi movement.

This 10th and most recent installment follows suit; the author discusses the testimony of faith (the shahada, "There is No god but God, and Muhammad is His Messenger"), and the importance of God's oneness in that most basic testimony of faith. One may ask why this media organization, which has effectively acted as representative and recruiter for al-Qaeda and the global jihadi movement more generally, has issued a 10-part series on these basic beliefs during the past year, while ignoring the mujahid's preparation for jihad, training, tactics or strategy. Yet, for the leaders of the global jihadi movement, ideology and doctrine are the cornerstones for recruiting and developing effective mujahideen to carry out operations and for driving the movement into the future.

Millions of Muslims have passed through Mecca and Medina as an obligatory part of the Hajj and 'Umra. These holiest of sites in Islam are under the auspices of Salafi leadership, sanctioned by the Saudi royal family. These Salafis share the same doctrine as the Salafi-led mujahideen fighting the United States, except for their policies allowing for a U.S. presence in the Gulf and banning involvement in jihad against the United States. That the global jihadi movement can tap into the beliefs of their "cousins" could present a serious long-term threat of a strong and growing core of mujahideen. It may also, however, present the fulcrum point of disparate militants fighting under this common banner, and as such, an opportunity to counter the movement and new recruits on the ideological level.

At Least 11 Killed in Fighting Between Militants, Ethiopian Forces in Somalia

2007-03-21T10:11:00.001-05:00

Witnesses in Somalia say insurgents have burned and dragged the bodies of at least two soldiers through the streets of Mogadishu, after fierce fighting between militants and Ethiopian forces killed at least 11 people.

The violence erupted Wednesday after insurgents attacked Ethiopian tanks rolling through an insurgent stronghold near the headquarters of the former Defense Ministry in southern Mogadishu.

Ethiopian troops returned heavy fire and several people were wounded in the fighting. Witnesses say six soldiers were among the dead.

Ethiopia deployed soldiers to Somalia last December to help the interim government push an Islamist movement from power.

Somalia's internationally-recognized government has since been struggling to contain regular outbursts of violence by fighters loyal to the fallen Islamist movement.

The African Union has deployed troops to Somalia to replace the Ethiopian forces, which Addis Ababa plans to withdraw.

Heavy fighting in Sri Lanka kills 12

2007-03-21T10:09:00.002-05:00

Sri Lankan troops and Tiger rebels fought a pitched battle in the island's restive east Wednesday, killing at least 12 from both sides and wounding more than 30, military officials said.

The rebel Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) launched a pre-dawn mortar attack on an army camp at Sittandy in the district of Batticaloa, killing four soldiers and wounding about 30, a local military official said.

"Troops retaliated in kind and we have captured the bodies of eight Tigers," a military official in the area said by telephone. He said more than a dozen civilians in the neighbourhood had also been wounded.

The LTTE said in a statement that eight civilians had gone missing in the district of Batticaloa on Tuesday, but gave no details of the latest fighting in the east.

More than 4,000 people have been killed in a new wave of fighting since December 2005 between government troops and rebels fighting for an independent homeland for the Tamil minority.

The fighting comes despite a truce that has been in place, at least on paper, since February 2002.

Death toll hits 70 in Pakistan clashes

2007-03-21T10:09:00.001-05:00

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan - Fighting between local and Uzbek militants escalated in northwestern Pakistan on Wednesday, and the death toll from three days of clashes rose to at least 70, officials said.

Militants were exchanging mortar, rocket and assault rifle fire in four areas of South Waziristan, where the clashes broke out Monday. The government has been urging tribesmen to move against al-Qaida-linked fighters in the region.

Pakistan hailed the battle as a success of its controversial aim of getting local tribesmen, rather than security forces, to crack down on foreign militants. But some observers see it primarily as a factional struggle between rival militant groups in a lawless region near
Afghanistan, where sympathies for the hard-line Taliban militia run high.

"It is the result of government policy that the local tribesmen are acting against foreign militants," Interior Minister Aftab Khan Sherpao told The Associated Press.

In the first formal government confirmation of casualties, Sherpao said more than 50 people had died in the fighting, including 40 foreign militants and their local supporters. Other Uzbeks had been detained by tribesmen or surrounded, he added.

But senior intelligence and military officials, speaking on condition of anonymity because they were unauthorized to make comments to media, said about 70 had died: Some 50 Uzbeks and local supporters, and the rest local militants led by Maulvi Nazir.

The officials described Nazir as "pro-government," although he is well-known as a Taliban sympathizer.

The intelligence official said Nazir's men had given an ultimatum to the Uzbeks to leave their territory by midnight Tuesday, and had resumed attacks Wednesday after that deadline passed.

A local intelligence official put the toll even higher. He said fighting in Kalosha, Azam Warsak and Doza Ghundai villages had left 106 dead, including 78 Uzbeks, and 120 wounded.

The tribesmen have handed over 46 militants, many of them Uzbeks, to Pakistani security forces in the region's main town of Wana, and another 68 Uzbeks were still in the custody of the tribesmen, the official said.

Pakistan's government, an ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, has long urged tribesmen to expel Central Asia and Arab militants from Waziristan, but with little success. Many of them shifted to Pakistan's tribal regions after the fall of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan in 2001. The region is still suspected to be a hiding place for al-Qaida leaders like
Osama bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahri.

While the motive behind the current fighting in South Waziristan remains hazy, the casualties suffered by the Uzbek fighters could ease pressure on Pakistan, which is facing fresh U.S. concern that al-Qaida is regrouping in an area. Waziristan is also viewed as a haven for Taliban fighters attacking
NATO and U.S. forces across the border.

A clash between tribesmen and Central Asian militants in South Waziristan earlier this month killed 18 people, apparently over attempts by Uzbek militants to kill a local tribal leader.

At least two children were reportedly killed and around 20 wounded when a stray mortar round from the fighting on Monday in South Waziristan hit their school bus.

Russia May Put Missile Shield Stations in Diplomatic Missions Abroad

2007-03-20T10:02:00.000-05:00

Russian Space Forces and Foreign Ministry are currently discussing the questions of placing anti-missile radar stations in Russian diplomatic missions in foreign countries, the Space Forces commander has said.

Colonel-General Vladimir Popovkin said in an interview with the Russian magazine Novosti Kosmonavtiki (Space Industry News) that the move will give Russia the opportunity to register the first stages of missile launches “that we cannot see from Russia’s territory” and adjust the flight tasks for the anti-missile weapons if an extraordinary situation occurs.

The general went on to say that the new generation quant optical stations require virtually no maintenance and can be fitted in “half of a room”. A station which will remotely control these stations all over the world will be built in Krasnokamensk in Russia and every six months specialists will run a routine check of the stations.

Popovkin also said that Russia is planning to build two new radar stations in the South — near the city of Armavir. He said that after these stations start working, Russian military will no longer depend on the Mukachevo and Sevastopol radar stations in Ukraine.

Selected CRS Reports

2007-03-20T10:01:00.001-05:00

Some noteworthy recent products of the Congressional Research Service include the following (all pdf).

"The Whistleblower Protection Act: An Overview," March 12, 2007.

"China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities -- Background and Issues for Congress," updated February 7, 2007.

"Data Security Breaches: Context and Incident Summaries," updated January 29, 2007.

"Bolivia: Political and Economic Developments and Implications for U.S. Policy," updated January 26, 2007.

"The Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS)," updated January 25, 2007.

Al Qaeda Uzbeks, Pakistani tribesmen clash

2007-03-20T09:53:00.001-05:00

WANA, Pakistan – At least 10 people were wounded on Monday in fighting that erupted between al Qaeda-linked Uzbek militants and Pakistani tribesmen in a region near the Afghan border, residents said.

The mountainous area of South Waziristan has been tense since 17 people, 12 of them militants, were killed in a battle between the foreign militants and tribesmen on March 6.

Hundreds of militants, most of them Uzbeks, Chechens and Arabs, have been hiding in Waziristan and other Pakistani tribal areas since fleeing Afghanistan when U.S.-led forces defeated the Taliban in 2001.

The recent clashes have been the most significant between the region's ethnic Pashtun tribesmen and the foreign militants, and follow government efforts to convince the tribesmen to help keep order and stop militant raids into Afghanistan.

The latest violence erupted in Shin Warsak, a village 7 km (4 miles) west of Wana, the region's main town. Both sides fired rifles, rocket-propelled grenades and mortars at each other, residents said.

'The situation is very tense,' said a resident of Wana who declined to be identified.

'I counted 10 wounded tribesmen were brought to Wana,' he said, adding he had no idea about casualties on the other side.

The cause of the clash was not known. The March 6 fighting erupted after the militants tried to kill a pro-government tribal leader.

Hundreds of people were killed in South Waziristan during Pakistani military operations in 2003 and 2004 to clear the region of foreign militants.

The fighting subsided after the government struck a peace deal with the militants in 2005.

Militants have killed dozens of people across Waziristan, including pro-government tribal leaders and people they accused of spying for U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

Iran to hit back at US ‘kidnaps’

2007-03-19T09:18:00.000-05:00

The Sunday Times

IRAN is threatening to retaliate in Europe for what it claims is a daring undercover operation by western intelligence services to kidnap senior officers in its Revolutionary Guard.

According to Iranian sources, several officers have been abducted in the past three months and the United States has drawn up a list of other targets to be seized with the aim of destabilising Tehran’s military command.

In an article in Subhi Sadek, the Revolutionary Guard’s weekly paper, Reza Faker, a writer believed to have close links to President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, warned that Iran would strike back.

“We’ve got the ability to capture a nice bunch of blue-eyed blond-haired officers and feed them to our fighting cocks,” he said. “Iran has enough people who can reach the heart of Europe and kidnap Americans and Israelis.”

The first sign of a possible campaign against high-ranking Iranian officers emerged earlier this month with the discovery that Ali Reza Asgari, former commander of the Revolutionary Guard’s elite Quds Force in Lebanon and deputy defence minister, had vanished, apparently during a trip to Istanbul.

Asgari’s disappearance shocked the Iranian regime as he is believed to possess some of its most closely guarded secrets. The Quds Force is responsible for operations outside Iran.

Last week it was revealed that Colonel Amir Muhammed Shirazi, another high-ranking Revolutionary Guard officer, had disappeared, probably in Iraq.

A third Iranian general is also understood to be missing — the head of the Revolutionary Guard in the Persian Gulf. Sources named him as Brigadier General Muhammed Soltani, but his identity could not be confirmed.

“This is no longer a coincidence, but rather an orchestrated operation to shake the higher echelons of the Revolutionary Guard,” said an Israeli source.

Other members of the Quds Force are said to have been seized in Irbil, in the Kurdish area of northern Iraq, by US special forces.

“The capture of Quds members in Irbil was essential for our understanding of Iranian activity in Iraq,” said an American official with knowledge of the operation.

One theory circulating in Israel is that a US taskforce known as the Iran Syria Policy and Operations Group (ISOG) is coordinating the campaign to take Revolutionary Guard commanders.

The Iranians have also accused the United States of being behind an attack on Revolutionary Guards in Iran last month in which at least 17 were killed.

Military analysts believe that Iranian threats of retaliation are credible. Tehran is notorious for settling scores. When the Israelis killed Abbas Mussawi, Hezbollah’s general secretary, in 1992 the Quds Force blew up the Israeli embassy in Argentina in revenge.

Despite the Iranian threat to retaliate in Europe, Iraq is seen by some analysts as a more likely place in which to attempt abductions.

“In Iraq, the Quds Force can easily get hold of American — and British — officers,” said a Jordanian intelligence source.

Hamas shoots Israeli, fires mortar bombs despite truce

2007-03-19T09:16:00.000-05:00

GAZA, March 19 (Reuters) - The armed wing of Hamas said it carried out its first attacks on Monday against Israel since a shaky November truce in the Gaza Strip, shooting a utility worker near the border and firing two mortar bombs at soldiers.

Hamas's Qassam Brigades said the shooting attack, which seriously injured the Israeli worker, was in response to Israeli military operations in the occupied West Bank, which is not covered by the four-month-old truce. No soldiers were injured.

The group said attacks against Israel would continue.

Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert's office called the shooting a "terror" attack.

The Israeli electricity company employee was working near the Karni commercial crossing between Israel and Gaza when he was shot, Israeli rescue services said.

"The Qassam Brigades announced its responsibility for shooting a Zionist (Israeli) and firing two mortar bombs against a gathering of Zionist soldiers near Karni crossing," the statement by Hamas's armed wing said. "Our strikes against the enemy will continue."

The attack occurred two days after Hamas Islamists formed a unity government with Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas's Fatah faction.

It was the first attack claimed by Hamas's armed wing since the November truce, which it had upheld.

Other groups, such as Islamic Jihad, stayed out of the truce and continued to fire makeshift rockets into Israel from Gaza.

An explosion on Monday ripped through an Islamic Jihad member's house near Gaza City, killing him and wounding at least nine people, hospital workers and residents said.

It was not immediately clear what caused the explosion.

Abu Ubaida, a spokesman for Hamas's armed wing, defended the Karni shooting attack as a natural response to Israeli violations.

"This is not a violation of calm. The enemy has been violating calm day and night in the West Bank and in Gaza and we had said calm was conditional," Ubaida said.

He added that the group was weighing whether to resume firing rockets against Israel.

Israeli intelligence officials say Hamas was taking advantage of the break in fighting to build up its forces and smuggle in an arsenal of rockets that could penetrate deep into Israeli territory.

Olmert has vowed to boycott the new Palestinian government in its entirety, including non-Hamas ministers, saying its platform does not meet international demands to recognise Israel, renounce violence and accept interim peace deals.

"This is precisely the type of terror that the new Palestinian government steadfastly refuses to condemn, thus rejecting a principle condition placed upon it by the international community," said David Baker, an Olmert spokesman.

A year-old diplomatic boycott of the Palestinian government continued to splinter on Monday when Norway's deputy foreign minister met Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas in Gaza.

Italy's foreign minister later called Haniyeh in a show of support, Haniyeh's office said.

"We hope that this siege will collapse step by step," said Mustafa al-Barghouthi, the new Palestinian Information minister.

The unity government says it will "respect" previous interim peace agreements with Israel. Its platform does not recognise Israel and asserts that Palestinian resistance in "all its forms" is a legitimate right.

While the United States said it would boycott the new Palestinian government, it did not rule out unofficial talks with non-Hamas ministers.

Britain plans to allow diplomatic contacts with non-Hamas ministers, and the United Nations is expected to follow suit. (Additional reporting by Ari Rabinovitch in Jerusalem and Mohammed Assadi in Ramallah)

Internal Divisions Threaten Kurdish Unity

2007-03-19T09:14:00.001-05:00

By Lydia Khalil

After years of infighting and repression by Saddam Hussein's regime, Iraq's Kurds were finally able to seize the opportunity for autonomy and influence presented by the 2003 U.S.-led invasion. Since then, they have solidified the de facto autonomy that was established under the No Fly Zone and retained power and influence over Iraq's national policies. The Kurdish leadership was able to accomplish these significant achievements by maintaining a unified front and overcoming years of disarray and distrust. In June 2006, the Kurdish leadership in Northern Iraq announced the long awaited unification of a Kurdistan Regional Government (KRG). Despite their success, Iraq's Kurds must now wrestle with deep-seated and long-standing issues that may be even more difficult to overcome than the legacy of civil war and repression. Iraq's Kurds must not only overcome their past, but also chart a singular future. As Kurdish fortunes improve and their power increases, so do the stakes. There are a number of issues that will come to a head that could spell trouble for Kurdish unity and continued stability within the newly unified KRG. The issues affecting Iraqi Kurdish unity and stability can be broadly broken down into internal and external factors. This analysis will focus on the internal factors that may affect Kurdish unity.

Internal Fissures

The first internal factor is the full implementation of the unity agreement. Internally, the KRG must address the greater demands for democratization and good governance as well as address systemic corruption. They also have to manage constituent desires for independence and tackle the ongoing power struggle between the so called "old guard," which includes the mid-level politburo members of the Kurdistan Democratic Party (KDP) and the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan (PUK), and the "new guard," consisting of younger, Western-educated and reform-minded politicians within the KRG leadership. In addition to this, they will have to come to a workable resolution on Kirkuk. Administrative unification and transformation of the KRG will unfold in an environment of intense internal political competition.

Although the administration of the Iraqi Kurdish region was officially unified under the KRG, they still have yet to implement the unification agreement fully. This means that there are still unresolved issues and rivalries between the preeminent Kurdish political groups—the KDP and PUK. For one, unifying the administrations will mean dismantling old patronage networks. In doing so, the PUK-KDP leadership will be forced to manage the ramifications of the fallout within the mid-level political ranks in order to strengthen their institutions and ministries. The so-called "old guard" still has long standing feuds, rivalries, personal interests and patronage networks that could be threatened by unification or by greater democracy in the region.

The other obstacle to unification is the armed forces of each party—the peshmerga. The Iraqi constitution calls for the creation of a unified National Guard—ostensibly made up of the same peshmerga fighters that had previously fought one another—to provide internal security for the North. This is no easy task. The challenge is to unify their command and control so that they can comply with the constitution, provide adequate security, link up to the central command in Baghdad and prevent the temptation to call in the peshmerga whenever there is an internal dispute between the KDP and PUK. Despite the unification agreement, there remain two separate peshmerga ministries. Peshmerga fighters are loyal to their political bosses, not to the KRG. The peshmerga are affiliated with the parties and they perceive themselves as PUK and KDP peshmerga, separately. Looming in the background are past grievances from the civil war that raged from 1994-1998.

Like the peshmerga ministries, the Ministry of Finance is still not unified. Implementation agreements have stalled because the two parties could not agree on how to split or consolidate revenues, or how to unify their financial administrations. The split in government inhibits the efficient distribution of services and hinders the pace of reconstruction. Kurdish civilians are becoming increasingly frustrated with this as they see more and more reconstruction money coming into the region with little result.

The Kurdish leadership has touted the success of their democratic experiment in Kurdistan and offers it up as a model for the rest of Iraq. Yet how democratic is Iraqi Kurdistan? According to one Kurdish official, in the recent elections "there were all kinds of intimidation; there was ballot stuffing and a variety of things…It shows that as 'democratic' as the north is and as developed of a civil society it has, it is still fragile" [1]. Although there are freedoms in the KRG, political expression and civic participation have been hampered by the overwhelming presence of the KDP and PUK, who monopolize the political space and resources. Kurds feel that there is little they can do to change the policies of the KDP and PUK. The March 2006 riot in Halabja was a clear sign of this tension. Hundreds of protesters threw stones and even destroyed a memorial dedicated to the victims of Saddam Hussein's 1988 chemical attack on the town (KurdishMedia.com, March 24, 2006). The demonstrators marched through Halabja chanting, "We don't want government officials here…You have done nothing for the city…All government officials are corrupt" (AFP, March 16, 2006). Some analysts have labeled the Halabja protest as the most serious challenge to the KRG since its inception.

Corruption is also rampant. In the rush to implement reconstruction projects, money is flowing everywhere, and often into the coffers of the respective parties. Anecdotes such as the following are not uncommon: "I had somebody come to me and say I have a deal for a cement factory in Kurdistan. It will cost $120 million. Can you find some funding? So I was able to communicate with some people [in Kurdistan] and they said if it's a sovereign contract we'll fund it. My connection…called the office of the prime minister. They told him 50% on top of it and we'll give it [the contract] to you" [2].

Ordinary citizens and political leaders are beginning to speak out, frustrated by the two parties' lack of movement and buoyed by the promise of democracy throughout all of Iraq. The problem, however, is that there is only enough political openness to encourage civil society and political participation, but not enough to broaden it. This is a dangerous situation now that Iraq's Kurds have been given the promise and taste of political and civil life outside of the old KDP/PUK framework.

The arrests of Kamal Sayid Qadir and Hawez Hawezi for allegedly "defaming" KDP and PUK leaders drew the unwanted attention of the international community to the lack of political freedoms in Kurdistan (KurdishMedia.com, December 28, 2005). Qadir wrote a series of high profile articles in the Kurdish media, outlining corruption and nepotism within the KRG. Peshmerga associated with the KDP seized Qadir and detained him for weeks without charges and without communication with a lawyer or his family. He was later released and officially charged with defamation, but his ordeal put in doubt Kurdish leaders glowing accounts of a free Kurdistan.

Other political parties besides the KDP and PUK have had a difficult time penetrating politics. Many parties have either been co-opted by the KDP and PUK or have been suppressed. The Kurdistan Islamic Union (KIU) is arguably the most serious opposition to the two parties, challenging the long standing commitment to secularism in the Kurdish region. The KIU is gaining traction among the population by criticizing the government for corruption and economic mismanagement. The KIU was established in 1994 and has been led by Salahadin Bahadadin [3]. It was originally part of the "unity" list with the KDP and PUK during the first round of elections. It has long been active in social work in Kurdistan and is becoming increasingly popular with students. The KDP feels threatened by the gains of the KIU, and it sent its supporters to mount an attack on its offices in December 2005. Seven were killed and many injured (RFE/RL, December 9, 2005). The Kurds also have to find a way to better incorporate the religious and ethnic minorities living in Iraqi Kurdistan—namely the Assyrians and the Turkomen [4]. The Kurds should reach an accommodation with the Turkomen especially, because both communities have a historical claim on the oil-rich province of Kirkuk.

Much of this is contingent upon who is driving the policies and leadership of the KRG. The future will depend on how much influence the old guard has in determining the future direction of Iraqi Kurdistan. If the old guard leadership maintains their hold on decision making, then tensions will surely continue. As it stands, they have the most to lose in the unification process. With the two administrations joining, somebody is going to lose a position or influence over a sector or neighborhood. The young guard, for the most part, has a "big picture" view. They are more concerned about developing institutions and encouraging investment. The new generation of leaders is not hampered by resentment over past conflicts, and grew up at a time when Kurdistan was largely independent. The younger leadership will emerge only if the insecurities of the old guard are alleviated. To what degree the younger leaders can work around or with the old guard is still uncertain. For now, they have found it necessary to work with rather than against them, at least until they shore up enough of their own power to confront them.

The status of the oil-rich province of Kirkuk is a hugely contentious issue in Iraqi politics. The Kurds claim this territory as rightfully theirs, but their claims are contested by other Iraqi groups who do not want Kirkuk to be part of the KRG. Analysts focus on the potential of Kirkuk to spark a civil war within Iraq, but there is a sub-level conflict as well. Kirkuk is a point of rivalry between the KDP and the PUK. Kirkuk will be a big political victory for whichever Kurdish group brings it into the Kurdistan region. The party that accomplishes this will be lauded by the population as the group that brought back their historical city. It will also upset the balance of the North. As of now, the governorates are split evenly between the KDP and PUK, with the KDP having a slight advantage. Who will be the majority in Kirkuk if it comes under the KRG? For the two parties, it is a new political space to fight over. Outwardly, the Kurds present a unified front on Kirkuk. According to Qubad Talabani, the KRG representative to the United States, "Kirkuk is a Kurdish issue, not a KDP or PUK issue…It will be a joint exercise. We may have difference of opinion, we may have other political battles, but not over Kirkuk. We should not and we will not have this competition" [5]. If the Kurds stay unified on this issue, they may succeed in bringing Kirkuk under the KRG. Unfortunately, a unified front will be difficult to maintain.

Conclusion

The issue of Kirkuk, if forced too soon, could have a severe destabilizing affect on Kurdish security. It could become a cause for greater internal tension, and even if the Kurds are successful in integrating Kirkuk into the KRG, it could invite interference by Turkey. Yet Kirkuk is not the only issue. Good governance, greater civil liberties and true opportunities for political participation are also critical to ensuring the KRG's security in the long-term. Although it is unlikely that the KDP and PUK will revert back to violent conflict over issues of unification, resources and political control, it is likely that the region could see more violent protests like the Halabja demonstration if demands for better governance are not met.

Notes

1. Interview with a senior Kurdish official, January 2006.
2. Interview with a senior Iraqi advisor, February 2006.
3. For more information on the party, see http://www.kurdiu.org.
4. Interview with Fawzi Hariri, Iraq's minister of industry and minerals, who is Assyrian and is part of the KDP.
5. Interview with Qubad Talabani, the KRG representative to the United States, January 2006.

The Danger of Terrorist Black Holes in Southern Africa

2007-03-19T09:12:00.000-05:00

By John Solomon

On March 13, a South African intelligence official warned that a number of international terrorists may be spending time in South Africa, using the country as a safehaven (South Africa Press Association, March 13). Furthermore, in October 2004, the CIA reportedly identified 29 al-Qaeda leaders serving in management and support positions operating from Pakistan and Iraq to South Africa (South Africa Press Association, October 4, 2004). Recent evidence suggests that prominent al-Qaeda financiers, facilitators and recruiters continue to operate in the generally underreported region of southern Africa. A brief historical survey of these events seems to reveal a discernible pattern that prominent global jihadis—sometimes serving as conduits between UK- and Pakistan-based networks—have used southern Africa as a possible medium through which to not only stage operations, but also secure refuge, money and recruits; all critical factors for executing attacks in support of the movement.

The new terrorism, epitomized by al-Qaeda and the broader jihadi movement, enjoys a dispersed, decentralized and arguably leaderless structure, instructed and driven more by ideology, doctrine and bottom-up social networks than by any one central figure. Since headless, flat organizations and movements are difficult to destroy in the most open, accessible environments, the task becomes even greater in regions riddled with "black holes" where porous borders, swathes of ungoverned space, lawlessness and easy access to arms and illicit trade converge to create comparative advantages for terrorists seeking refuge and support mechanisms for operations and attacks [1]. These opaque corridors, coupled with information technology, afford ample space for jihadi "hubs" to move, nest and grow their networked infrastructure while retaining a quiet, threatening posture worldwide.

Southern Africa exemplifies one such corridor in which al-Qaeda might utilize comparatively advantageous conditions in order to remain viably intact and active. Al-Qaeda franchises are well-placed across west, north and east Africa, with growing signs that southern Africa may have been or is a key support base. Much of southern Africa contains "terrorist black holes" where lawlessness provides terrorists with the means to develop support structures—safehouses, training opportunities, mobility and funding channels—to advance their objectives. The fact that southern Africa has played host to a number of recent incidents involving prominent al-Qaeda facilitators further indicates its use and value, and warrants a closer look at this generally underreported region. With lawlessness, government corruption and a wide-range of preferred terrorist financing methods available—minerals, gemstones, pirated products and narcotics—al-Qaeda could indeed partake in illicit and unregulated trade in southern Africa to sustain itself.

Madagascar

When Jamal Khalifa was found dead in his gemstone mine in southeastern Madagascar in late January, it was unclear which was more puzzling: the murky circumstances surrounding his death, which his brother Malek emphasized to the press, or the more alarming assertion that he was involved in the African gemstone trade (Asharq al-Awsat, February 1). Jamal Khalifa was a widely-suspected al-Qaeda financier linked to a dizzying array of terrorist operatives, plots and front organizations across the globe. Through fronts established in the Philippines, Khalifa reportedly funded Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, a mastermind of the 9/11 attacks, and his nephew Ramzi Youssef to execute Operation Bojinka, a plot to simultaneously destroy 12 transpacific airliners bound for the United States from Asian cities. He is notably also credited with the creation of the Abu Sayyaf Group in the Philippines (Manila Times, February 1). Since 9/11, Saudi Arabia reportedly restricted Khalifa, who is also Osama bin Laden's brother-in-law, to the kingdom and the seafood restaurant that he co-owned with his brother Malek in Jeddah. The fact that an al-Qaeda suspect of this profile maintained mining interests in Madagascar and elsewhere raises questions regarding al-Qaeda's ability to capitalize on ungoverned spaces in southern Africa and beyond for its financing activities.

Coincidently, less than a week after Khalifa's death, Midi Madagaskira, an Antananarivo-based daily, reported that Fazul Mohammed, a Comoros-born al-Qaeda leader, had not only survived a U.S. air strike that targeted him in Somalia, but also had been seen in Majunga, a seaside town in northwest Madagascar [2]. Mohammed allegedly directed the 1998 bombings of U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania. If it is true that he found safe passage from Somalia to Madagascar or the Comoros, it strongly suggests that there was an existing support infrastructure there to facilitate his movements. Another possible scenario is that he was directing fighters in Somalia while based in Madagascar or another African country.

Analysts and media reports often also associate Fazul Mohammed with diamond trading in western Africa in the late 1990s. He allegedly organized and took part in a smuggling scheme in Sierra Leone and Liberia through a Senegalese trader named Ibrahim Bah who was also a close associate of the president, Charles Taylor. Coincidently, it may also be remembered that around the same time these alleged al-Qaeda diamond schemes took place, Yassin al-Qadi, another U.S.-designated terrorist financier, invested US$3 million for a 12% interest in Global Diamond Resources, a California-registered company that mined diamonds in South Africa, and another multinational gemstone operation through New Diamond Corp. Ltd., an offshore company that he controlled. While the two individuals and their involvement in the gemstone trade may not be linked, the use of diamonds for terrorist financing activities is well-known and would most likely take place in southern Africa or other parts of the continent where precious stones are mined and traded.

South Africa

Madagascar is not the only example of a southern African country playing host to prominent jihadi operatives. While South Africa witnessed a spate of terrorist attacks and extremist activities in the Cape Town area by the Salafi-inspired PAGAD and Iranian-sponsored Qibla organizations in the late 1990s, there is perhaps a more worrying trend that prominent al-Qaeda operatives, with a much more global agenda, are using the state as a base of support operations. In January, the United States and the United Nations moved to freeze the assets of South African-based cousins Junaid and Farhad Dockrat for providing material and financial support to al-Qaeda [3]. The cousins illustrate how jihadi hubs—individuals with extensive social networks within the movement—can become tentacles of support that facilitate the movement of human resources and capital to perpetuate the organization.

Junaid Dockrat is a dentist in Johannesburg. Professionals—doctors, lawyers, engineers—tend to be involved in terrorist financing activities more so than their non-professional counterparts and often earn enough through legitimate means to fund terrorism, making it difficult to prevent by conventional anti-money laundering measures. Junaid Dockrat allegedly transferred $120,000 to Hamza Rabia, the now deceased al-Qaeda foreign operations chief, in March and April 2004 to facilitate the movement of South Africans to terrorist camps in Pakistan. The U.S. government also listed Dockrat as a majority co-owner of Sniper Africa, a purported hunting goods store that has been designated as a global terrorist entity [4]. Junaid could have acquired these funds through his legitimate employment as a medical professional and business owner. This illustrates a key challenge and distinction for why combating terrorist financing is difficult and different from traditional anti-money laundering measures. Terrorist financing is reverse money laundering. Terrorists dirty clean money, whereas money launderers and other criminals clean dirty money. Junaid's association with his more visible cousin, Farhad, likely caused Western intelligence services to identify him.

Farhad Dockrat is a Pretoria-based cleric also involved in terrorist financing and other support activities. The United States claims that he financed terrorism through a $62,900 gift he gave to the Taliban ambassador in Pakistan to be forwarded to al-Akhtar Trust, an al-Qaeda charity front. In addition, Farhad seems to be active in Salafi proselytizing networks. He heads the "lavish" Darus Salaam Mosque in Laudium, a nearby suburb, which is reportedly frequented by the Pakistani and Malavian communities (Daily Times, January 30). His son, Muaz, lectures in the adjoining Islamic college. In 2005, Farhad, Muaz and a student were detained for a number of weeks in Gambia where they were suspected of al-Qaeda membership. Dockrat claimed that he was unjustly held and insisted that he was on a religious mission across the region to exchange "Islamic educational techniques" [5]. Perhaps indicative of the effectiveness of these techniques, Farhad's former student, Zoubier Ismail, was detained with other South Africans during a raid on an al-Qaeda safehouse in Pakistan in late 2004.

One pattern that emerges is an apparent South African link to jihadi operatives, often of Pakistani descent, in the United Kingdom and Pakistan. Haroon Aswat, another prominent jihadi who was active in Pakistan, though born in Gujarat, India, was detained in Zambia traveling from Zimbabwe in late July 2005 after his phone number was found on all four of London's July 7, 2005 suicide bombers. He reportedly exchanged a flurry of phone calls with each of them while he was in South Africa in the days before the attack (The Times [London], July 31, 2005). Although not conclusive, the phone calls suggest an operational relationship between Aswat in South Africa and the suicide cell in London led by Mohammed Saddiq Khan, who undertook terrorist training in Pakistan with a group of other Britons.

Aswat has an extensive history of links and associations with al-Qaeda and the greater jihadi movement in and out of the United Kingdom and Pakistan and, later, the southern African region. In London in the 1990s, he was an assistant to Abu Hamza at the Finsbury Park Mosque. In 2002, the U.S. government prosecuted him for attempting to establish a terrorist training camp in Bly, Oregon. Apart from his possible involvement in 7/7, the United States recently linked Aswat to Mohammed al-Ghabra, a designated terrorist financier, facilitator and recruiter based in east London. In 2004, Aswat allegedly met al-Ghabra in Pakistan where al-Ghabra was engaged in extensive terrorist training. The United States also accuses al-Ghabra of recruiting and sending Britons to train and fight in Pakistan and Iraq. Aswat, al-Ghabra and al-Qaeda networks in Pakistan seem to have constituted a triangular link among training activities in Pakistan, financing activities in South Africa and operations and attacks in the United Kingdom.

The case of Abd al-Muhsin al-Libi further illustrates this trend of prominent al-Qaeda operatives using South Africa as a base for terrorist support infrastructures. Al-Libi, also known as Ibrahim Tantouche, emerged in South Africa in February 2004 when he was detained for holding a fake South African passport. Later that year, British security agencies found boxes of South African passports at the home of a suspected al-Qaeda member in Britain. The passports were legitimate passports, not fakes, indicating that they were obtained illegally through a South African government official (The Star [South Africa], July 28, 2004). There seems to be a good possibility that al-Libi acquired the fake passport through al-Qaeda support structures in South Africa.

Al-Libi previously directed the al-Qaeda terrorist financing fronts, the Afghan Support Committee and Revival of Islamic Society. Both operated under charity covers and diverted money to al-Qaeda that was raised for orphans who in reality were either dead or non-existent. Although his current whereabouts are not publicly known, as of November 2005 he was in South Africa, free and awaiting the outcome of a political asylum application.

Conclusion

While these terrorist activities give indication that southern Africa could offer sanctuaries for prominent jihadis to support or plot future terrorist attacks, these same events may also suggest that the U.S.-led efforts are resulting in tactical victories. Key sectors of the network seem to be emerging. Khalifa's appearance in Madagascar is worrying because it signifies that important terrorist financing mechanisms such as diamond trading may be available to high-profile al-Qaeda associates. Yet, at the same time, travel bans, asset freezes and the detainment of prominent operatives also suggest in each of the cases cited that important victories are being won.

Identifying and neutralizing terrorist support infrastructures are a critical part of any successful counter-terrorism strategy. The United States' announcement that the Pentagon will create an African Central Command in 2008, while explained at least in part by energy security and balancing China, may also indicate that the United States will continue to monitor and increasingly dismantle these jihadi support hubs and prevent them from proliferating further.

Notes

1. For a comprehensive study, see Rem Korteweg and David Ehrhardt, Terrorist Black Holes: A Study into Terrorist Sanctuaries and Governmental Weakness, TNO Defense Security and Safety, 2006.
2. Report found at: http://www.meobservatory.com/news/2007/02/news2020607.htm.
3. South Africa exercised a veto in the Security Council to prevent UN designation, so only the U.S. designation applies at present. See also "UN links SA men to al-Qaeda," Sunday Times, January 21, 2007.
4. See U.S. Treasury press release: http://www.ustreas.gov/press/releases/hp230.htm.
5. For more information, see: http://molvi.blogspot.com/2005/10/missing-persons_08.html.

Russia's changing Iran policy

2007-03-19T09:11:00.000-05:00

In an apparent recognition that its earlier efforts to engage Tehran failed to bring any meaningful results, Russia lashes out at Tehran's obduracy, announcing a delay in the Bushehr nuclear power plant project.

Commentary by Sergei Blagov in Moscow for ISN Security Watch (14/03/07)

Russia's state-run Atomstroiexport company announced on 12 March that the Iranian-based Bushehr plant would not become operational sooner than November due to delays in funding commitments from Iran. The company said that even if Iran renewed funding, Bushehr would not join Iran's power grid before 2008. On 13 March, the company voiced confidence that Iran would pay up, warning that if it failed to do so, the project could be shelved.

Russian nuclear power agency Rosatom said that under an agreement signed last September Iran was due to pay Russia US$25 million a month, but paid nothing in February. Rosatom said the lack of funds would affect the date arranged to send nuclear fuel to Iran. Iran's Atomic Energy Organization has reportedly denied Russia's claim of payment delay, insisting that Tehran has honored all its financial commitments.

Signed in January 1995, the Bushehr contract involved the Russian supply of one VVER-1000 reactor, the training of Iranian specialists and the delivery of nuclear fuel for the reactor. Bushehr was originally expected to go online this year. In recent years, Iranian officials suggested that Russia could become a partner in lucrative projects to build 20 nuclear power stations in Iran with a total capacity of 20,000 megawatts.

Last September, the two sides agreed on a new timetable under which Russia would deliver fuel to the power station this March, six months before the start-up of the reactor that was scheduled for September 2007 in order to produce energy in November.

The Russian announcement of a delay in the Bushehr contract was followed by accusations that Tehran had abused Moscow's patience. On 12 March, Russian news agencies quoted an anonymous high-ranking source in Moscow accusing the Iranians of abusing Russia's "constructive" approach, inflicting foreign policy damage and undermining Russia's image. The source urged Iranians to "answer for themselves."

Tehran appeared to take the Russian accusations seriously, dispatching a senior official to Moscow. On 13 March, the Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow and Tehran had "confirmed their loyalty to the diplomatic settlement of the Iranian nuclear problem." Russia also urged Iran to respect UN Security Council and International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) resolutions. The statement was made following a visit to Moscow on 12-13 March by the deputy head of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Hosseinitash.

The UNSC may vote on proposed sanctions by the end of this week, possibly including an embargo on arms exports and a ban on government loans to Iran. Russia holds a veto in the UNSC.

Until recently, Moscow was keen to mediate in the dispute between Iran and the West, suggesting a plan to meet Iran's uranium needs by carrying out enrichment on Russian soil. Tehran repeatedly indicated interest in the joint enrichment plain, which could have broken an international deadlock, but Teheran refused to suspend domestic enrichment in return.

In January 2006, Russia proposed creating a global nuclear processing infrastructure for all interested nations. Russia offered to build an international center on its soil to offer nuclear fuel services, including uranium enrichment under IAEA control.

A month later, Iran claimed it had reached a "basic agreement" with Russia on joint enrichment, but little actual progress has been achieved so far due to Tehran's refusal to suspend domestic enrichment, the main demand of the West.

In March 2006, the Iranian Foreign Ministry said Tehran was no longer considering Russia's proposal to move uranium enrichment to Russia and was instead considering large-scale uranium enrichment at home. Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov lashed out at Tehran for its reluctance to accept the Russian compromise.

Nonetheless, Russia reiterated its opposition to sanctions against Iran until it had seen hard evidence that Tehran was pursuing nuclear weapons.

Permanent members China and Russia, both with significant commercial interests in Iran, oppose UN sanctions against Iran. They have yet to endorse a draft Security Council statement by the other three permanent members - the US, the UK and France - that calls on Iran to halt all uranium enrichment and demands a new IAEA report in the next two weeks.

Despite western concerns, Moscow has long insisted it would sell weapons to any country that had not violated international regulations. Moscow signed a US$700 million deal to supply Iran with 29 units of TOR-M1 (SA-15 Gauntlet) surface-to-air defense systems, delivered late last year. Russia also sold eight aerial tankers for refueling Iranian aircraft. In July 2006, Rosoboronexport reportedly signed a contract with Iran to upgrade 30 Su-24 jets, which are believed to be capable of serving as carriers of tactical nuclear weapons.

In the early 1990s, Russia delivered three Project 877 diesel submarines, eight MiG-29 fighters and a T-72 tank production license to Iran, as part of a series of deals dating back to the 1980s. In 1995, Russia and the US signed a secret memorandum obliging Moscow to stop weapons deliveries Iran by 31 December 2001, and to refrain from signing any new arms deals with the country. Russia pulled out of the deal in 2000.

In March 2001, Russian President Vladimir Putin and then-Iranian president Mohammad Khatami signed a cooperation treaty. In October 2001, Moscow and Tehran signed framework agreements for US$300-$400 million a year of Russian military supplies to Iran, including spare parts for Russian-made weapons, new fighter jets and possibly air defense, ground-to-ground and anti-ship systems.

Iran had the potential to become Russia's third largest arms customer, after China and India. Tehran is also reportedly interested in acquiring medium- and long-range air defense missiles, ground-to-ground missiles, Sukhoi-27 fighter jets and armored infantry vehicles. It is also reportedly keen to buy anti-ship missile systems in order to control crucial sea routes in the Persian Gulf. Some Iranian officials indicated that Russia could overall earn up to US$7 billion by resuming full-scale military cooperation with Iran. However, these deals have never materialized, with Russia reluctant to antagonize the West.

Earlier this year, Washington imposed new sanctions on three Russian companies and organizations - arms exporter Rosoboronexport, Russia's Tula Design Bureau of Instrument Building (KBP) and the Kolomna Design Bureau - for allegedly selling missiles and weapons goods to Iran and Syria.

In January, Russia criticized the US sanctions, describing them as "an illegal attempt to apply its internal legislation on foreign companies and force them to abide by the US rules." Rosoboronexport dismissed the sanctions as "unfair competition."

Russia has a history of being targeted by US sanctions, designed to forestall arms sales to Iran. Among others, in August 2006, the US imposed sanctions against two of Russia's major arms exporters, Rosoboronexport and Sukhoi, for arms deals with Iran. The sanctions fall under the Iran-Syria Non-Proliferation Act. Moscow dismissed the sanctions as the practice of "dishonest competition."

In November, Washington formally lifted the sanctions against Sukhoi, which is developing the Russian Regional Jet with Boeing.

Apart from the Bushehr project, Russia has significant economic and energy interests in Iran. Trade between Russia and Iran was up from US$660 million in 2000 to US$2 billion in 2005, including US$1.9 billion in Russian exports to Iran. Last year, bilateral commerce remained stable at about US$2 billion, with Russia still enjoying a healthy surplus.

In December 2006, Russian deputy Industry and Energy Minister Ivan Matyorov said in Tehran that Iran had suggested cooperation with Russian oil and gas giants in developing new deposits. Russian state-controlled oil company Rosneft could soon start developing deposits in Iran, while LUKoil Overseas would develop Iran's Anaran deposit, he said. "[Iranians] would like to cooperate with Gazprom" in Iran and other countries, including Venezuela and Bolivia, he said. Such plans between Gazprom and Iranian companies in Venezuela and Bolivia could come as an apparent affront to Washington.

Russia's Gazprom has been already developing Iran South Pars phases 2 and 3, the giant gas field, near the border between Qatari and Iranian waters in the Persian Gulf. The gas field is estimated to contain around 812 trillion cubic feet (14 trillion cubic meters) of gas, equal to seven percent of the world's proven reserves and roughly 50 percent of Iran's.

Russia also mulled some major multilateral projects involving Iran. Russia, India and Iran signed an agreement on the development of the North-South corridor in September 2000.

Therefore, even apart from nuclear and arms deals, Russia still has a lot to gain, or loose, in terms of economic ties with Iran. Nonetheless, as Moscow's patience with Tehran has been wearing thin, the Kremlin now seems prepared to review its Iran policy, despite possible economic repercussions.

SERBIA: POLICE ARREST FOUR IN 'WAHHABI TERROR TRAINING CAMP' RAID

2007-03-19T09:10:00.001-05:00

Belgrade, 19 March (AKI) - Serbian police continued on Monday to comb the mountainous terrain of the southern Sandzak region, after they said Saturday they had uncovered a Wahabi Muslim terrorist training camp near the town of Novi Pazar. Police said they arrested four people training at the camp but one managed to escape. A cache of weapons, ammunition and plastic explosive with detonators was discovered by police in a nearby mountain cave.

"The action that began three days ago is continuing today," said Serbian police minister Dragan Jocic. "We are continuing to comb the terrain and search for other members of the group," he said, adding that the state organs were "determined to prevent any form of violence and terrorism."

The fundamentalist Wahhabi movement which preaches a "pure Islam" originated in Saudi Arabia in early 18th century and preaches religious intolerance towards other religious groups, including moderate Muslims.

The police said that up to 30 Wahabis had been gathering and undergoing training in the camp at Ninaja Mountain.

The Wahabi movement first emerged in the Balkans during the 1992-1995 civil war in Bosnia, when thousands of mujahadeen fighters from Islamic countries came to fight on the side of local Muslims. Many have remained in the country since the war, and according to foreign intelligence sources have been indoctrinating local youths and even operating terrorist training camps.

Several clashes have been reported lately in Bosnia and in Sandzak between Wahabis and moderate Muslims and three people were wounded in a shootout in Novi Pazar last November.

Terrorism expert Darko Trifunovic, a professor at Belgrade university's security faculty blamed the Wahabi upsurge on the overly tolerant stance towards them by Bosnian Muslim political, military and religious leaders. "Today we are paying the price for this, but there is no doubt that the main victims of the divisions in the Muslim community will be Muslims themselves," he said.

Trifunovic said the Wahabis were covertly financed by Saudi "humanitarian organisations" and were training their members for suicide attacks against selective targets in Europe. Like Bosnia and Serbia’s breakaway Muslim majority Kosovo province, Sandzak - whose population is 50 percent Muslim - has provided fertile ground for Wahabi extremism, Trifunovic told Serbian media.

IRAN-ARMENIA: FIRST STRETCH OF GAS PIPELINE OPENED

2007-03-19T09:08:00.000-05:00

Tehran, 19 March (AKI) - Iranian president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and his Armenian counterpart Robert Kocharian opened on Monday the first Armenian part of a natural gas pipeline connecting the two countries.The two presidents inaugurated the first 40 kilometre stretch of the pipeline in the border town of Meghri. Under the project, which was launched in 2004 and has so far cost 200 million dollars, Iran will at first deliver 400 million cubic metres of gas a year which should rise to 2.5 billion once the project is completed. Armenia will in exchange reportedly provide electricity to Iran.

During the inauguration, Ahmadinejad said the pipeline is a "symbol of the deep friendship which ties Iran, an Islamic country, to Armenia, a Christian country."

Armenia is Iran's main political and economic partner in the Caucasus.

Russian Intelligence in Britain Works on Cold War Level

2007-03-19T09:05:00.000-05:00

Alexander Litvinenko’s death put the spotlight on the world of spying Russian agents are as active in Britain now as at the height of the Cold War, the BBC reported on Thursday quoting senior Whitehall officials.

The sources told the BBC’s Frank Gardner there were more than 30 identified intelligence officers trying to get secrets by covert means. Targets include military hardware, scientific know-how and technology, and inside tips on Westminster politics.

Businessmen who may have access to sensitive information are also of interest, as are Russian dissidents. Such dissidents include Boris Berezovsky, friend of the murdered former KGB agent Alexander Litvinenko.

Sir Paul Lever, a former member of the Joint Intelligence Committee, said: “Russian espionage activity in Britain is very extensive. ”In scale it’s probably pretty much as it was at the height of the Cold War.“

He described the activities of Russian spies and how they operate. ”Mostly it is by gradually drawing their targets into a relationship which at first may seem to be a perfectly normal business relationship — ’we’d like some information, we’d like an article, of course we’ll pay you’, but over time develops into something more akin to the classic relationship of case officer and agent.“

Once a potential agent has been hooked, his or her Russian handler then needs to avoid the British authorities.

In Britain, counter-espionage has been carried out by the security service M15 for nearly 100 years. The service now focuses mainly on counter-terrorism and only about 5% of its budget is now spent on counter-espionage. The service oversees every visa application from a potential intelligence officer coming to Britain — and tries to keep out the more experienced ones.

Those that do get in usually operate from the Russian embassy in Kensington. Here they report to a controller, known as ”the resident“.

But keeping tabs on these agents is a difficult task.

Surveillance expert Crispin Black said: ”You need large numbers of people to keep them under round-the-clock surveillance. “And you have to change those people every now and again. Say the suspect goes on a journey — you can’t follow them from here to Glasgow in one white Peugeot up the M1.”

Not only that, but our security correspondent said that some Russian intelligence officers were reappearing in London from 20 years ago.

In Russia, Britain is in turn accused of spying.

Last year saw the case of “the rock” - allegedly a device planted by MI6 to receive coded data from agents.

Russian security expert Andrei Soldatov said: “Now Russian counter-intelligence thinks that British intelligence are not only spying against Russia but trying to influence the political situation.”

Iran's president wants to address U.N. Security Council

2007-03-16T13:30:00.002-05:00

UNITED NATIONS (CNN) -- Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad has asked to go before the U.N. Security Council when it debates and votes on a resolution to impose sanctions for Iran's refusal to stop uranium enrichment, the president of the Security Council said Thursday.

"The Security Council will have to decide whether it would accommodate this or not," said Dumisani Kumalo, president of the council and South Africa's ambassador to the United Nations.

Kumalo said Ahmadinejad requested to visit during the adoption of the resolution. That would be a challenge, he said, because the council does not know when that meeting will be.

Kumalo said the group planned to convene next Wednesday, "but that may change."

Whenever the meeting does take place, officials said, a vote on the resolution still may be weeks away.

A presidential delegation from Iran has already requested visas in order to go to the United Nations, but it was unclear how many were requested and when they would be used, according to the American mission to the United Nations.

Iran has rejected U.N. demands that it stop enriching uranium, which Western powers believe is a step toward producing nuclear weapons. Iran has denied that it intends to build weapons and said its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes only.

Earlier Thursday, Germany and the five permanent members of the Security Council -- the United States, Britain, China, France and Russia -- submitted the new resolution to the council for consideration.

The proposed sanctions include a ban on Iranian arms exports, a watch list on travel by people connected to Iran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, an expanded assets freeze on select individuals and companies involved in nuclear activities or nuclear weapons delivery systems, and a call for nations not to enter new agreements for grants or loans except for humanitarian assistance.

The purpose of a ban on Iranian export of weapons, mostly small arms and explosives, is to subdue the smuggling of weapons to Iran's ally Hezbollah, largely in Lebanon, but also into Iraq.

The draft resolution calls only for "vigilance and restraint" in selling arms or missile systems to Iran and in providing any technical assistance, training or financial support for the sale or manufacture of those items.

This proposal would intensify the U.N. sanctions on Iran first imposed in late 2006. The view of the six nations is that pressure must be raised incrementally on Tehran to get it to comply with demands that it stop enrichment and answer questions about its nuclear program.

Syria: Plans to destroy Damascus' old city, dissidents warn

2007-03-16T13:30:00.001-05:00

Damascus, 16 March (AKI) - Syrian dissidents, opposition forces and civil society groups plan to mobilise against what they say is a government approved scheme to demolish part of Damascus' Old City to make way for modern buildings. Sources have told Adnkronos International (AKI) that the project - allegedly headed by Rami Makhlouf, a cousin to Syrian president Bashar al-Assad - will result in the forced removal of hundreds of families living in the Old City and the closure of many shops and markets.

Damascus whose origins date to before 3000 BC, is considered by many archaeologists to be the oldest continuously inhabited city in the world, with its rich history reflected in the architecture of its buildings, neighbourhoods and monuments.

Among the Old City's architectural gems are the Umayyad, one of the world's largest and oldest mosques, the Citadel of Damascus, the Bab Sharqi, an ancient street believed by many Christians to be the place were St. Paul underwent his conversion to Christianity, and the Souk Medhat Pasha, a famous covered market.

City authorities have given developers the go-ahead to knock down a stretch of buildings located in a 1,400 metre-long portion of the Old City which flanks the rampant wall that enclose it, dissident lawyer Razan Zaytouna told AKI.

The area extends from Bab al-Salam (the gate of peace), on the north boundary of the old city to the Bab Touma (the "Touma" or "Thomas gate") in the north-east corner, which leads to the Christian quarter of the same name.

The people living in the areas set to be demolished will be relocated outside Damascus in a settlement devoid of proper infrastructure, Zaytouna said.

If the demolition takes place Damascus' Old City risks losing its status as a UNESCO World Heritage Site, warn opponents who say they will organise protests and launch a media campaign to raise public awareness against the plan.

Russia Proposes New Missile Defense System to Offset US Plans

2007-03-16T13:26:00.000-05:00

While Russia said it intends to create its own missile shield in response to an American one planned to be based in Poland and the Czech Republic, NATO has warned that missile proliferation could split the alliance.

The head of the Russian air force said Tuesday that the country would begin developing a new air defense system after the US announced it planned to station two bases for its own missile shield in Poland and the Czech Republic, countries that used to fall under the former Soviet Union's sphere of influence but are now NATO members.

"We are moving to the creation of a new system of anti-aircraft defense which will significantly surpass the capabilities of the S-400," Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov said, referring to Russia's existing anti-aircraft missile system.

As the United States has done in presenting its plans, Mikhailov stressed that the system would not be used to attack other countries. "This is not an offensive but rather a defensive weapon," he said.

The head of the US Missile Defense Agency, Lieutenant General Henry Obering, was in Ukraine Wednesday to reassure politicians about the US plans to locate a missile battery in Poland and radar system in the Czech Republic. He is scheduled to brief officials in the German foreign ministry on the American anti-missile system plans on Thursday.

"We understand that General Obering is visiting Berlin with the aim of informing us about the current state of plans for the US defense shield," ministry spokesman Jens Plötner said. "We are happy to accept this offer for further information, and we see this as the start of another round of intensive consultations about this issue."

"Rogue states" posed threat to US, EU

Washington says the system is needed to defend the United States and European allies against the growing missile capability of "rogue states" such as Iran and North Korea and insists it would not be directed against its Cold War-era foe Moscow.

NATO, however, is concerned about the increasingly bellicose tones coming from Washington and Moscow. Some analysts have warned of a new Cold War following an impassioned speech criticizing US dominance made by Russian President Vladimir Putin at an international security conference in Munich last month.

NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer said Monday that the US shield had the potential to split the alliance into countries it protects and those it does not. "When it comes to missile defense, there shouldn't be an A-League and a B-league within NATO," he told the Financial Times. "For me it is the indivisibility of security that is the guiding principle."

A 2006 NATO report found that Europe faces a risk of a missile attack and said building an anti-missile shield would be feasible. The allies, however, remain divided over the extent of the threat and over the political and economic implications of developing such a system.

Discussion needs to continue

British Prime Minister Tony Blair also called on the UK to renew its nuclear deterrent to confront "new and potentially hazardous threats" to British security from states like Iran and North Korea.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel, who is heading to Poland on Friday for two days of talks, said the US and NATO needed to work out their concerns over the missile program together and in consultation with Russia in "open discussions."

"We -- and I will say this in Poland -- prefer a solution within NATO and also an open discussion with Russia about it," she told German public broadcaster ZDF on Tuesday.

German Defense Minister Franz Josef Jung earlier this month also called on NATO to seek talks with Russia to defuse the row. German defense ministry spokesman Thomas Raabe on Wednesday reiterated that "such a complex theme is best tackled within NATO."

USA/Mexico politics: Immigration reform, round two

2007-03-16T13:24:00.001-05:00

FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT

US President Bush has had few gifts to offer his allies in Latin America during his visit in recent days to five countries in the region. While he continues to hold up the prospect of a comprehensive reform of US immigration laws, progress over the last year has been undermined by divisions in Congress and Mr Bush’s lagging political authority.

The topic is still a key one on the agenda as Mr Bush meets with Mexican President Felipe Calderón on March 13th. And there has been recent momentum in trying to get a new bill out of Capitol Hill. However, Mr Calderón, quite wisely, is apt to keep popular expectations at home relatively low.

Mr Calderón’s predecessor, Vicente Fox, placed big bets on the promise of immigration reform early in his term in 2000-01. Mexicans represent the largest immigrant group in the US, so the issue is a vital one in bilateral relations. Early in his first term Mr Bush also put it at the top of his list of priorities for domestic policy.

But the prospects for reform diminished severely thereafter. Since the terrorist attacks of September 2001 many congressmen, and particularly Republicans, have emphasised tighter border security and have rejected any perceived opening to immigrants. In late 2005 and early 2006 vastly different immigration reform bills emerged from the Senate and the House of Representatives, and efforts to reconcile them stalled. In the meantime, draconian measures such as beefing up border patrols and building a 700-mile border fence have been implemented. These have been widely resented by Mexicans, and have contributed to uneasiness in relations between the two countries.

What has changed?

On the face of it, chances for an immigration overhaul have improved now that Democrats control Congress. They are more amenable to some of Mr Bush’s proposals—such as expansion of a guest workers programme and establishment of a path to legalisation for many of the 12m undocumented aliens in the US. Indeed, immigration is one of the few issues on which the White House and Democrats see a basis for co-operation.

However, there are divisions even among Democrats on the issue. And it is not clear whether the current political climate will be any more conducive to reform. Other problems, particularly the increasingly unpopular war in Iraq, have taken precedence, and campaigning for the 2008 presidential election has already begun.

Lawmakers have been working in recent weeks to revive and revise their immigration reform proposals, and optimists—including some business and immigrant groups—believe that agreement on a comprehensive overhaul is still possible this year. To make the bill palatable, it will contain enhanced security provisions, but Democrats also will push for what they call "earned legalisation", involving a combination of fines, taxes and other conditions that would enable an undocumented worker to become a legal resident.

Business lobbies are pushing for change harder than ever. This is the result in part of stepped up raids in recent weeks and months on workplaces that hire illegals as well as increased federal enforcement of employer sanctions by the Immigration and Customs Enforcement Agency. Beyond this, employers in the agricultural and other sectors say they are beginning to be adversely affected by worker shortages.

Battle royal

Still, if a bill is brought to the floor of both houses, a fight is likely, and there is no guarantee that all the necessary votes can be secured. Most Republicans will continue to favour security measures and workplace enforcement over any plan to legalise alien workers. The Senate’s bipartisan bill last year, which did include a temporary workers programme and a path to citizenship, passed by a vote of 62 (including 23 Republicans) to 36. Yet this was based on a fragile coalition of forces, and even some of the freshman Democratic senators say they would not vote for anything perceived to be “amnesty” for illegals.

Even if a reform bill gets broad support in the Senate, the battle will be tougher in the lower house, as it was a year ago. It is believed that at least 50 or so hard-core Republican members of the House (total 435 seats) will never vote for immigration reform. Experts suggest that at least 20 Republican senators (out of 49) and 40 Republican House members (out of 202) will have to vote “yes” if the bill is not to get bogged down in procedural manoeuvres.

Will Mr Bush be willing to expend much of his diminished political capital to get the required number of Republicans on board? He implies that he would, and there are few other issues out there on which he might be able to claim victory in what remains of his term. He says he hopes to see a bill completed by the autumn, but time may be fast running out.

Watching cautiously

Meanwhile, the Mexicans, and others, will be watching carefully. Failure to secure a plan to regularise the situation of so many Mexican immigrants could complicate the alliance between the two countries, and could increase anti-American sentiment south of the border—as evidenced by the protests that awaited Mr Bush in each country he has visited.

On the other hand, Mr Calderón would have much to gain politically if immigration reform were to advance. He would be able to deliver on the promise that his predecessor made, and in so doing bolster his legitimacy and deflate that of the leftist opposition, still railing against him after last year’s close presidential election.

In the end, however, US domestic politics, rather than the wisdom of trying to ameliorate Washington’s damaged relations with Mexico and other Latin American countries, will determine whether immigration reform can advance in the months ahead. Immigration is a highly emotionally charged issue for much of the American public, and under the pressure of early campaign electioneering, a bill might not reach Mr Bush’s desk any time soon.

The Economist Intelligence Unit

Danish firm charged in anti-terror case

2007-03-16T13:21:00.000-05:00

COPENHAGEN, Denmark - Seven people who raised money for Colombian guerrillas and Palestinian militants through T-shirt sales have been charged under Denmark's anti-terror law, a prosecutor said Thursday.

The suspects were associated with a Danish company that sold T-shirts over the Internet with the acronyms FARC, or Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, and PFLP, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine.

The company, Fighters and Lovers, said on its Web site that it would donate $7 to the groups for each $31 T-shirt sold. However, no money has been transferred to either group, and it was not immediately clear if any shirts were sold.

In charges filed Wednesday, Prosecutor Henning Fode said the seven, who were not identified, had violated a part of the anti-terror law that prohibits economic support to terror groups.

"Both PFLP and FARC have either taken responsibility for or have been blamed for acts that must be considered to be included" in the Danish anti-terror law, Fode said in a statement.

If convicted, each faces up to six years in prison.

Company officials did not immediately answer calls seeking comment.

No trial date was set for the case, which started in January 2006 after Colombia asked Denmark to take action against Fighters and Lovers.

In October, the spokesman for another Danish group that advocated support for FARC and PFLP was charged under terrorism laws for helping raise money for the organizations.

Iraqi refugees in Europe could double this year

2007-03-16T12:48:00.000-05:00

The number of Iraqi refugees arriving in Europe is expected to double to 40,000 in 2007 based on trends from the first two months of the year, the UN refugee agency said Friday.

As the security situation has deteriorated in Iraq, European governments have come under increasing pressure to open their doors to asylum-seekers. Many are worried that an escalation of violence in 2007 could generate large waves of refugees.

"We're asking the European Union to take a consistent and generous approach to the needs of the refugees," said Judith Kumin, head of the office of the UN High Commissioner for Refugees in Brussels.

About two million Iraqis have fled the bloodshed in their country since 2003, mainly to Syria and Jordan. An additional 1.7 million are believed to have been displaced within Iraq. Within Europe, most Iraqis have headed for Sweden, followed by the Netherlands, Germany, Greece, Britain and Belgium.

UNHCR statistics show that 20,000 Iraqis applied for asylum in the EU last year.

AP

'Threat of home grown terrorism growing in US'

2007-03-15T13:49:00.001-05:00

WASHINGTON: A top intelligence official has said the threat of home grown terrorism is growing in the United States and the phenomenon needs to be understood to effectively tackle it.

Charles Allen, the Chief Intelligence Officer with the Department of Homeland security, told a Congressional panel on Tuesday that, "We are increasingly facing the threat of homegrown terrorists. The US-UK aviation plot, occurring a year after the subway attacks in the United Kingdom, was a wake-up call to the British in terms of the breadth and depth of Islamic radicalization there".

The agencies involved in tracking down terrorism are yet to come up with precise answers on why it is that America has yet to come up with a national assessment of the problem, the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs was told.

Allen said the authorities have been going about with care and caution in pursuing the issue of homegrown radicalism and terrorism so that the general sensitivities of the Muslim Americans are not offended.

"We believe the radicalisation threat we face in the homeland is different from that currently confronted in Western Europe, but we remain concerned that radicalization will eventually spawn operational attacks in the homeland if we do not gain deeper insights into the phenomenon and actively work to deter it."

"To date, extremist individuals in the US have proven to be involved primarily in aspirational plotting, hatched largely by isolated actors who lack the will or the capability to carry out large-scale attacks."

"In contrast, plots involving homegrown extremists in the UK and Western Europe have been linked to Al-Qaida and other terrorist networks. We have yet to find such deep linkages in the United States, but we remain vigilant and we recognize we're not immune to the threat" Allen said.

"To address Islamic radicalization, my office is taking a geographic and collaborative approach to assessing radicalization in the homeland. Working with our state and local partners, we initially have focused on assessing radicalization in California and in the New York City metropolitan area, to include New Jersey. We're now focusing on the Midwest, the national capital region, and Texas" Allen remarked in response to a query.

"We will conduct additional regional or state assessments. And our goal is to build a baseline that addresses the how and the why of radicalization at the local level. Again with our state and local partners, we will use this baseline to develop a national assessment of radicalization" he added.

In a different context, Allen maintained that the Internet is indeed a major "driver" for self-radicalisation even as officials have said that relevant authorities in the administration are keeping a very close watch on those potential radical elements that might enter the country including Imams on the religious "R" Visas.

During the course of the hearing the Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Michael Chertoff, who testified was asked how authorities differentiate between terrorism motivated by radicalised Islam versus other types of extremist ideologies.

Venezuela' PDVSA open an oil Intelligence Office in Vienna

2007-03-15T13:47:00.000-05:00

Venezuela oil company PDVSA will open an Oil Intelligence and Policy Office in Vienna, Austria, to evaluate the different scenarios linked with oil, a press release from PDVSA informed on Wednesday.

Venezuelan Energy and Oil Minister and PDVSA's president Rafael Ramirez said a greater emphasis on oil policy is now needed, oil producing countries need to reinforce their thoughts and share experiences, as do oil consuming nations.

Ramirez, also explained that inventories of crude oil and by-products have moved to lower levels than the highs of recent years, so prices have stabilized.

Ramirez reiterated the price for OPEC crude oil should not be under 54 dollars a barrel, since costs have increased more than 40 percent.

Petroleumworld

Al-Qaeda plot to bring down UK internet

2007-03-15T13:45:00.000-05:00

SCOTLAND YARD has uncovered evidence that Al-Qaeda has been plotting to bring down the internet in Britain, causing chaos to business and the London Stock Exchange.

In a series of raids, detectives have recovered computer files revealing that terrorist suspects had targeted a high-security internet “hub” in London.

The facility, in Docklands, houses the channel through which almost every bit of information on the internet passes in or out of Britain.

The suspects, who were arrested, had targeted the headquarters of Telehouse Europe, which houses Europe’s biggest “web hotel”, containing dozens of “servers” , the boxes which contain the information that makes up the web.

Security experts say the plot against Britain’s internet “hub” reflects the constantly changing threat from Al-Qaeda and related Islamic extremist groups.

Last year MI5 uncovered intelligence which suggested that Islamic terrorist suspects had carried out reconnaissance of the huge Bacton complex of gas terminals on the Norfolk coast. The threat led to the deployment of armed guards around the plant.

A senior Whitehall security official said the internet plotters appeared to be planning to infiltrate the “hub”, possibly to blow it up from the inside, according to evidence on a computer hard drive seized in raids on the homes of terror suspects in southern England last year.

“The Telehouse facility was the subject of intense reconnaissance. The evidence suggests that it was one of a range of options considered by the suspects,” the official said.

The discovery led Eliza Manningham-Buller, head of MI5, to set up the Centre for the Protection of National Infrastructure last month. It is a special MI5 unit to help to protect “infrastructure” sites from terrorist attacks, such as telecommunications, the internet and key utilities such as oil, gas installations and nuclear power stations.

“Without these services, the UK could suffer serious consequences, including severe economic damage, grave social disruption, or even large-scale loss of life,” the MI5 website says.

The Telehouse hub is nicknamed CTU after the counter-terrorist headquarters in the American television series 24. It is designed to provide back-up power for all Britain’s vital network services in the event of a large-scale terrorist attack elsewhere.

Yesterday the company confirmed that it was required to go on a “heightened state of alert” last year, when security officials say they uncovered the plot. It declined to discuss the threat but said it wanted to reassure its customers that it was doing everything possible to protect itself from terrorism.

Robert Harris, its technical services director, said: “Major co-location companies such as Telehouse are strategically important organisations at the heart of the internet.

“Security and business continuity are critically important. Our industry remains as alert as possible to any threat, terrorist or otherwise, and we are in regular communication with the appropriate authorities.

“The climate in 2006 required a heightened state of alert. In 2007 we remain in this heightened state of awareness to any such security threat and are in regular dialogue with the authorities.”

DHS Boosts Cooperation with Russian Intel

2007-03-15T13:44:00.000-05:00

Two new U.S. Secret Service agents are to be stationed in Moscow this year, in accordance with a secret memorandum of understanding between the Department of Homeland Security and Russia's Federal Security Service (FSB), that country's foreign intelligence agency.

The four-page memorandum of understanding was signed in November 2006 by DHS Secretary Michael Chertoff and the FSB Director.

In response to a Freedom of Information Act request from the Federation of American Scientists, DHS denied (pdf) the release of any portion of the document, citing FOIA exemption (7)(E) which protects law enforcement information.

The denial is being appealed. DHS officials have independently disclosed some of the contents of the memorandum.

Information about the document was first reported last December by Russia's Tass News Agency. The DHS-FSB memorandum "envisages the exchange of information between the two sides on border control and related matters," according to a Tass report.

DHS Acting Assistant Secretary Paul Rosenzweig described the agreement in a December 20, 2006 briefing.

"One of the products of [the new memorandum] is that either already or within the new year there will be two new Secret Service agents stationed in Moscow. [The Secret Service is now a DHS component -- SN] That's a return to a post that has been vacant for quite some time which we're very pleased about. There remain several other DHS people there already."

"With Russia in particular, there's been some very strong positive movement in the past six months, as reflected by the signing of this agreement," Mr. Rosenzweig said.

States look at companies tied to terror

2007-03-14T16:43:00.000-05:00

WASHINGTON - The latest front in the war on terror begins on Wall Street. A growing number of states are considering pulling their investments out of companies that conduct business with Iran, North Korea, Sudan and Syria, all of which are on the State Department's list of terror-sponsoring nations.

Missouri led the way last year when it became the first state to order its employee pension funds to dump shares of companies that deal with those four countries. At least five other states — California, Georgia, Maryland, New Jersey and Texas — have similar legislative proposals pending.

During a news conference Tuesday, proponents of the campaign said they want investors to embrace the concept of combatting terror through financial pressure.

"It seems strange to me that we send young men and women to defend our freedom ... however, we have not yet used our most powerful weapon — America's financial markets," said Missouri State Treasurer Sarah Steelman.

Divestment as a means for political change was used successfully against South Africa's apartheid regime during the 1980s. At least six states — California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maine, New Jersey and Oregon — have begun to divest public pension funds from Sudan, where the government and its militia allies are accused of pursuing a genocide campaign in the Darfur region.

More than 400 publicly traded companies have financial dealings with terror-sponsoring nations, according to the research firm Conflict Securities Advisory Group. Most are foreign owned companies like Germany's Siemens AG, Norway's Statoil ASA and France's Alcatel SA and Total SA.

A series of executive orders already restricts U.S. companies from trading or investing in Iran.

The financial impact of divestment can be enormous, said Frank Gaffney, president of the Center for Security Policy in Washington. A report from the center found the top 100 public pension funds invest in 101 companies with business in countries that sponsor terrorism. Those countries, in turn, reap about $73 billion from projects in which the companies are involved.

"It's time for terror-free investing to be made a very important, if not a central part, of what I think is best described as the war for the free world," Gaffney said.

Diplomatic pressure has already persuaded some companies to change their practices. Companies like Credit Suisse Group, UBS AG and Daimler-Benz AG recently have taken steps to curtail their financial dealings with Iran.

Rep. Brad Sherman (news, bio, voting record), D-Calif., said Tuesday he would introduce legislation to force investment fund managers to disclose companies in their portfolios that do business with Iran and require the U.S. federal employee investment fund to divest from those firms. Sherman also called on the managers of the federal Thrift Savings Program to create a terror-free fund similar to Missouri's.

Last year, Steelman helped create the International Alpha Select Fund, managed by State Street Global Advisers, to screen out the stocks of companies tied to countries that sponsor terrorism. She said the fund is getting better returns than a benchmark index.

Steelman also ended Missouri's business with financial institutions like French bank BNP, which lends money to the government of Iran. This year, Missouri will offer investors in the state's 529 college savings plan the option to invest in terror-free mutual funds.

Colombian rebels kidnap 18-member geology team

2007-03-14T16:42:00.000-05:00

BOGOTA, March 14 (Reuters) - Leftist Colombian rebels have kidnapped 18 employees of a mining services company, including nine geologists, who were prospecting for gold in western Colombia, authorities said on Wednesday.

Members of the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC, marched the group at gunpoint into the jungle on Tuesday evening near the town of Bete, a 20-minute river boat ride from Quibdo, the capital of Choco province, police said.

All 18 kidnap victims work for a private company called Logistical Services of Colombia. The firm could not immediately be reached for comment and a police spokesman told Reuters he did not know if any of them were non-Colombians.

"Starting early this morning the area is being patrolled by fighter and reconnaissance planes in support of army units searching for the 18 people," a statement from Colombia's Air Force said.

The FARC is fighting a four-decade-old war against the state funded by kidnapping for ransom and the Andean country's multibillion-dollar cocaine trade.

Other rebel hostages include Ingrid Betancourt, a French-Colombian citizen taken by the FARC during her 2002 campaign for Colombia's presidency and three American defense contractors kidnapped the next year while on a mission to locate crops used to make cocaine.

Choco is a cocaine-producing area sandwiched between Panama to the north, a common destination for smugglers, and Valle del Cauca province to the south, home to Colombia's toughest drug cartel. Most people in Choco are descended from African slaves brought by the Spanish to work in local gold mines.

More than 40,000 people have been killed in Colombia's war since 1990, most of them civilians, the United Nations says, while over 3 million people have been forced from their homes by violence.

But kidnapping and other violence has been cut under President Alvaro Uribe, who was reelected for a second term last year and remains popular for his U.S.-backed crackdown on the FARC.

U.S. military says al-Sadr remains in Iran

2007-03-14T16:40:00.000-05:00

BAGHDAD (AP) — The U.S. military spokesman in Iraq said on Wednesday that all indications showed that radical Shiite cleric Muqtada al-Sadr remained in Iranian exile as of 24 hours ago.

The anti-American religious leader, who heads the Mahdi Army militia, was first reported by the Americans to be absent from Iraq on Feb. 13, when the latest U.S.-Iraq security drive opened in Baghdad.

"He's a very significant part of this political process. We do continue to track his whereabouts," Maj. Gen. William B. Caldwell said at a briefing to mark the end of the first month of the security drive.

The spokesman expressed particular concern about a spike last week in the number of what he called "high-profile" car bombings.

"If the high-profile car bombs can be stopped or brought down to a much lower level, we'll just see an incredible difference in the city overall. Murders and executions have come down by over 50%. ... But the high-profile car bombs is the one we're really focused on because that's what will start that whole cycle of violence again," Caldwell said.

TURKEY: OIL EXPLORATION TO BEGIN IN MEDITERRANEAN

2007-03-14T16:39:00.000-05:00

Ankara, 14 March (AKI) - The Turkish Petroleum Corp. (TPAO) will begin prospecting oil in the shallow waters of the Mediterranean off the Turkish coast, particularly around Antalya, Mersin, and Iskenderun, and an international tender process will be launched this month, TPAO's president Saim Dinc, announced on Wednesday."We hope to see foreign partners beside us in July or August. Oil exploration will start this year," he told Turkey's Anatolia news agency.

According to Dinc, TPAO will conduct seismic works in deep waters of the Mediterranean, particularly in the seabed off Antalya, which lies to the west of Cyprus and off Egypt, this spring and summer.

"We hope that we will get good results from these seismic works, and launch bigger and more expensive projects in 2008 and 2009. We also continue searches in the Black Sea," Dinc added.

Turkey had 300 million barrels of proven oil reserves as of January 2006, according to estimates by the Oil and Gas Journal.

Russia to develop new air defence system

2007-03-13T16:37:00.000-05:00

MOSCOW – Russia's air force chief said on Tuesday Moscow was working on a new generation air defence system after the United States announced plans to deploy a missile shield in Eastern Europe.

Gen. Vladimir Mikhailov said the new technology would go further than the existing S-400 (Triumph) anti-aircraft missile system, which has a range of 400 km (250 miles).

'We are moving to the creation of a new system of anti-aircraft defence which will significantly surpass the capabilities of the S-400,' Mikhailov told a meeting of foreign military attaches in Moscow.
'This is not an offensive but rather a defensive weapon,' he said.

Mikhailov also returned to the attack on the U.S. missile defence plan, already sharply criticised in Moscow. 'I think everyone will understand that this should not be done,' he said in remarks seen as aimed at Poland and the Czech Republic.

Those two countries, one-time Soviet allies that now belong to NATO, are being invited to host elements of the missile shield on their territory. Russia says Washington did not consult it properly on the issue.

Washington says the shield would protect U.S. allies against an attack from 'rogue states' such as Iran and North Korea and does not threaten Russia.

But Moscow regards the system, reminiscent of President Ronald Reagan's 'Star Wars' project in the 1980s, as an encroachment on its former sphere of influence and an attempt by Washington to change the post-Cold War balance of power.

One Russian general said recently Moscow's missile forces could target the installations should they be deployed. Under the U.S. plan, Poland would host a missile battery while a radar system would be sited in the Czech Republic.

reuters

Iran slams Russian move not to ship nuclear fuel

2007-03-13T16:29:00.001-05:00

Iran's top nuclear negotiator Ali Larijani on Tuesday deplored Russia's decision not to ship nuclear fuel to Iran as agreed, a move that delays the start of Iran's first nuclear power plant.

"This (Russian decision) shows that there is no such thing as a guarantee to deliver nuclear fuel," the official Islamic Republic News Agency quoted Larijani as saying Tuesday.

The Russian move, announced Monday, means that Iran's first nuclear reactor will not come on stream in September, as was scheduled. This is a major political blow to Iran which expected the commissioned power plant to boost its position in long-running negotiations with the United Nations over its nuclear program.

"Russains are extortionists," the Iranian lawmaker Rasoul Sediqi Bonabi said Tuesday. "Moscow has never been a reliable partner and will never be so in the future."

AP

Egypt: Police nab 17 Muslim Brotherhood members

2007-03-13T16:27:00.000-05:00

Police arrested 17 members of the banned Muslim Brotherhood group in six Egyptian provinces on Tuesday, the police and the group's web site said.

The dawn arrests were the latest in the ongoing crackdown on the country's largest opposition movement.

Also, Mahmoud Sayed Ghazlan, a senior leader of the Brotherhood, was arrested late Monday by state security, police officials said speaking on customary condition of anonymity.

Ghazlan is a member of the Guidance Bureau, the Brotherhood's highest decision-making body. He was freed in August 2005, after spending more than three years in prison after being convicted by a military court in 2002 on charges of belonging to an illegal organization and recruiting members.

AP

'Hamas members training in Iran'

2007-03-13T16:25:00.000-05:00

Hamas has sent dozens of its members to Iran to receive military training, and hundreds more are preparing to go, Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) chief Yuval Diskin told the Knesset Foreign Affairs and Defense Committee on Tuesday.

Diskin told the panel the training was part of a trend of Hamas and Islamic Jihad strengthening their ties with Teheran.

"These men who have been sent to Iran for training are not training for periods of a week, two weeks or a month, but for long-term, high-quality training," he said. "They are returning with knowledge of intelligence and weaponry that they did not have before."

While only Hamas members were currently going to Iran for training, Islamic Jihad was also interested in deepening ties with Iran in order to strengthen its militia in the Gaza Strip.

Both terrorist organizations were using tunnels from Sinai to smuggle weapons and people in and out of Gaza, said Diskin.

"We are seeing all of these groups interested in rebuilding. They all want to be more effective," he said. "They are using the current lull in violence to rebuild."

Diskin said that 31 tons of dynamite were smuggled into Gaza during 2006, up from 5 tons in 2005.
He also said that 50 terrorist attacks were currently being planned in the Gaza Strip, but ultimately meant to be launched from the West Bank. "The more time that passes, the more difficult it will be to stop these organizations," said Diskin.

He said the Shin Bet projected that if the smuggling was not stopped, terrorist organizations in the Gaza Strip would develop sophisticated rockets with ranges of 13 to 20 km., bringing bringing Ashkelon within easy reach.

"The longer they continue to develop these weapons, the better they'll get. It is still possible for us to stop this but it will become more difficult in time," said Diskin.

Asked about the chances of Hamas and Fatah overcoming their differences and forming a national unity government, Diskin described the relations between the rival factions as a "ticking bomb." He said that it was possible that violent confrontations would erupt before the March 23 deadline for Palestinian Authority Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh to announce his new cabinet.

The committee had been given several briefings recently in which high-ranking members of the defense establishment expressed concern about the growing trend of Hamas fighters being trained in Iran.

MK Yuval Steinitz (Likud) called on the IDF to increase its operations in the Gaza strip. "Israel shouldn't deceive itself that the current lull in the Gaza Strip is indicative of peaceful intentions, but rather that Hamas members there were using the time to rearm themselves and to smuggle weapons," Steinitz said.

Also on Tuesday, Prime Minister Ehud Olmert went to talk to soldiers and officers of the Gaza Division and to get a first hand feeling of the situation along the border, looking into the Strip from several look-out positions. He also went to the Kerem Shalom region, where Cpl. Gilad Schalit was kidnapped in June, to assess the situation there.

Meeting with a Beduin unit, he said he knew what they were dealing with everyday. "I know how hard it is. I completely understand what you mean when you say that it is better for you to be on this side of the fence, rather than on the other side of the fence, because from this side you can see what they want to plan ahead of time," he said.

Olmert said there was definitely a systematic attempt to infiltrate into Israel through the border fence. "The distances are short, the possibility to dig tunnels is well known and problematic, and we need to find ways to deal with that," he said.

JPOST

Top Pakistan nuclear scientists in Taliban Custody: Zee News Exclusive

2007-03-10T15:44:00.000-06:00

New Delhi, March 07: Two top nuclear scientists of Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC) are currently in Taliban custody. The two were working at PAEC’s facility in North West Frontier Province. Zee News investigations reveal that the two scientists were kidnapped about six months ago. To avoid international embarrassment Pakistan Government has kept this information under wraps.

According to information available with Zee News, nuclear scientists have been kidnapped by Taliban at the behest of Al-Qaeda. Further investigations reveal that Al-Qaeda may be using the expertise of the scientists to produce nuclear bombs. The two scientists are reportedly being held somewhere in Waziristan, near Afghanistan border.

In January this year Pakistan security agencies had foiled another attempt by Taliban militia to kidnap nuclear scientists. Earlier, incidents of Taliban militia stealing uranium in NWFP have already been reported. PAEC also has a uranium mining facility in NWFP.

With repeated Al Qaeda threats to the US, news of kidnapping of nuclear scientists will increase pressure on Pakistan to attack terrorist camps.

Zee News

US prison to force-feed Palestinian inmate

2007-03-07T16:03:00.000-06:00

Prison workers soon might force feed a former university professor who has been on a hunger strike for six weeks to protest his imprisonment for refusing to testify about Palestinian charities, his lawyer said Wednesday.

Sami al-Arian, a Palestinian who taught computer science at the University of South Florida, stopped eating Jan. 22 in objection to a judge's decision to hold him indefinitely because he refused to testify before a grand jury.

He has lost more than 40 pounds (18 kilograms) on his water-only diet and is so weak that he needs a wheelchair, said his wife, Nahla al-Arian.

"His health is really deteriorating," she said. "We are really worried that there will be permanent damage."

AP

Saudi Arabia warns foreigners of possible attacks

2007-03-07T09:11:00.000-06:00

RIYADH, March 7 (Reuters) - Saudi authorities have warned foreign embassies that a group blamed for last month's killing of four French nationals could strike again, the Interior Ministry said on Wednesday.

"The warning was despatched by the (Saudi) Foreign Ministry to all embassies in the kingdom," said Mansour al-Turki, the Interior Ministry spokesman for security affairs.

Diplomats said the warning was sent after the Interior Ministry announced on Tuesday it had arrested some suspects in the killing of the four French nationals.

"Saudi authorities officially notified us on Tuesday that the group could attack again and urged foreigners to avoid travelling outside cities," a Western diplomat said.

The four French nationals were killed on Feb. 26 during a trip into the desert. No one has claimed responsibility.

The warning also advised embassy personnel not to travel in the area where the killing occurred, the Western diplomat said.

Some French residents in Riyadh said they received text messages from their embassy informing them of the Saudi warning.

"We have reacted immediately by informing our nationals of the warning which urged foreigners in general to be cautious and to call police as soon as they notice that they are being monitored," French embassy spokesman Alain Guepratte said.

Two Saudi nationals -- Abdallah Sayer al-Mohammadi and Nasser bin-Latif al-Balawi -- ignored an ultimatum to turn themselves in by early Wednesday. "They are now on the wanted list. We have to arrest them," Turki said.

The interior ministry offered 7 million riyals ($1.9 million) for information leading to their arrest. Their pictures were published on front pages of local newspapers.

Authorities said two attackers perpetrated the killings, which was the first attack on foreigners since 2005.

Islamic militants loyal to al Qaeda launched a violent campaign to topple the U.S.-allied Saudi monarchy in 2003, carrying out suicide bomb attacks on foreigners and government installations, including the oil industry.

Some of the 100,000 Western residents in Saudi Arabia left after the earlier attacks, reducing the number to around 60,000, but many have since returned, diplomats said.

Militant Islamists have said they want to drive "infidel" Westerners out of Saudi Arabia, the birthplace of Islam and home to its holiest sites.

Tough security measures and a wide publicity campaign helped curb the violence but analysts and diplomats say radical Islamic ideology and anger at Western policy remain strong.

Selected CRS Reports

2007-03-07T09:08:00.000-06:00

Some recent products of the Congressional Research Service obtained by Secrecy News that have not previously been made readily available in the public domain include the following (all pdf).

"Congressional Oversight of Intelligence: Current Structure and Alternatives," updated February 15, 2007.

"Intelligence Spending: Public Disclosure Issues," updated February 15, 2007.

"The Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act: An Overview of the Statutory Framework and U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court and U.S. Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court of Review Decisions," updated February 15, 2007.

"Polygraph Use by the Department of Energy: Issues for Congress," updated February 14, 2007.

"Data Mining and Homeland Security: An Overview," updated January 18, 2007.

"Abu Sayyaf: Target of Philippine-U.S. Anti-Terrorism Cooperation," updated January 24, 2007.

"Airport Improvement Program: Issues for Congress," February 26, 2007.

"Tracking Current Federal Legislation and Regulations: A Guide to Resources," February 28, 2007.

Pakistani clashes leave 15 dead

2007-03-07T09:06:00.000-06:00

DERA ISMAIL KHAN, Pakistan - Armed tribesmen attacked suspected Uzbek militants in northwestern Pakistan on Tuesday, triggering a battle in which 15 people were killed, Pakistani intelligence officials said.

A group of about 60 tribesmen attacked the Uzbeks as they drove through a village near Wana, the main town in the South Waziristan tribal area, one intelligence official said.

Twelve militants, two tribesmen and an Afghan shopkeeper were killed in the ensuing battle, the officials said on condition of anonymity because of the secretive nature of their job.

One official identified the two dead tribesmen as brothers of Saeedullah Khan, a tribal elder who has been targeted in failed militant attacks in the past because of his suspected ties with the Pakistani government.

Hundreds of Arab, Central Asian and Afghan militants suspected of having links with the Taliban and al-Qaida fled to South Waziristan and the adjoining North Waziristan region after the U.S.-led invasion of
Afghanistan in late 2001.

Under intense U.S. pressure, Pakistani troops have fought a string of bloody battles in the border region since 2004 to root out militants hiding there.

During a visit to Pakistan last week, U.S. Vice President
Dick Cheney expressed concern to Pakistani President Gen. Pervez Musharraf over al-Qaida regrouping inside the tribal regions and an expected Taliban spring offensive in neighboring Afghanistan.

Iran: Missing general likely kidnapped

2007-03-06T13:03:00.000-06:00

Iran officially announced on Tuesday that its former deputy defense minister was missing while on a private trip to neighboring Turkey, and its top police chief accused Western intelligence services of possibly kidnapping the official.

Ali Reza Asghari, a retired general in the elite Revolutionary Guards and a former deputy defense minister, had arrived in Turkey on a private visit from Damascus, Syria, the official Islamic Republic News Agency (IRNA) reported Tuesday.

Iran's top police chief, Gen. Esmaeil Ahmadi Moghaddam, said Iran was investigating the fate of Asghari through the Turkish police.

"It is likely that Asghari has been abducted by the Western intelligence services," IRNA quoted the Iranian police general as saying. The general did not elaborate.

Meanwhile, however, the London-based Arab daily Asharq alawsat said on Tuesday, quoting high-profile sources, that Asghari may have sought asylum in the US.

The newspaper reported that the Iranian official had left for the US shortly after arriving in the Turkish capital.

Other reports from the Arab media suggested that the Mossad and the CIA were behind Asgari's disappearance. Israel has denied involvement in the general's disappearance, but The Daily Telegraph speculated on Monday that Asgari could have been abducted by Israel to shed light on the whereabouts of missing IAF navigator Ron Arad, who Israel has claimed might have been held at one point by Iran.

Fearing that Iran will try to kidnap senior Israeli officials who are traveling abroad, the Israeli security establishment was reevaluating Tuesday and adjusting security arrangements for certain officials visiting non-Western and Muslim countries.

The Shin Bet (Israel Security Agency) - the agency in charge of providing security for Israeli officials - said: "We formulate our security arrangements according to developments in the field and intelligence information."

Meanwhile, Iran has asked Turkish officials to investigate Asgari's disappearance, Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki was quoted Monday as saying.

Mottaki said Iran was "taking all the necessary steps" to solve the case of the missing general.

"A director-general from the (foreign) ministry has traveled to Turkey (to follow up the case). We have asked Turkey to investigate Asgari's case," said Mottaki.

Reportedly, Asgari, who was a Revolutionary Guards commander at the end of the eighties and beginning of the nineties, was involved in a deal to transfer Arad to the Iranians in exchange for a large sum of money.

The Telegraph said it was understood that Hizbullah guerillas might have passed Arad up the chain of command to their Iranian handlers.

The Telegraph also suggested that the former spy chief was not kidnapped by an intelligence service but defected while visiting Turkey, escaping to a Western country, and Israel and the US were showing special interest in the case since Asgari might be able to shed some light on the fate of Arad.

In Turkey, the Interior Ministry said it was investigating the matter, but would not confirm or deny that Asghari had disappeared or been kidnapped.