Iran deflecting international attention to Syria
The UN report on the assassination of Rafik Hariri released on October 20th has increased the international pressure on Bashir Assad, however, sources within Syria have acknowledged that Iran has began operations to aid Syria's CW(chemical weapons) program. Iran has sought to occupy both the UN and Bush administration with other regional issues instead of allowing the international spotlight to shine on its own nuclear advancements. Recent failures of the European Union and Bush Administration to bring Iran to the the UN Security Council, has only cemented Tehran's plans.
After finally finding common ground on Iran's nuclear ambitions, failed attempts to reach an agreement on a course of action has allowed Iran to escape possible sanctions. To it's credit, Tehran has worked effectively to shift attention from its nuclear efforts both through the Iraq insurgency and Syria, with great success.
Syria-Iranian cooperation
As Syria's regime increases it's paranoia over speculation of a US-led attack to topple it, it has forged ahead with an innovative chemical warfare program in cooperation with Iran hoping to deter the Bush administration from any such plans. The essence of this co-operation, a source within Damascus told Jane's Information Group "is Tehran's contractual commitment, made to Syria a few months ago, to provide Iranian Chemical Weapons technical assistance to facilitate Syria's program".
According to the source, Iran will assist Syria in the planning, establishment and pilot operation of about four or five facilities throughout Syria for the production of precursors for VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent.(1 ) Under the terms of contract, yet to be officially signed, Iran will also supply Syria with reactors, pipes, condensers, heat exchangers (to change the temperature of materials) and storage and feed tanks, as well as chemical detection equipment all of which are necessary to construct the planned facilities within one year.
As Iran's nuclear program has captured the world's attention, its chemical weapons programs has remained in the shadows. Claims made on its CW programs by oppositions groups have not yet materialized, however, past allegations on Tehran's nuclear plans have been verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) through inspections and investigations. Iran's CW record was first noted during the 1980's Iran-Iraq War, where it mainly used mustard gas captured from Iraqi positions. In 2004, "Syria imported hundreds of tonnes of sodium sulfide, hydrochloric acid and ethylene glycol-MEG from Iran, which are precursors for the production of mustard blister agents and Sarin nerve gas," the source said. Iranian cooperation with hostile countries is not limited to Syria, in 2004, the Bush Administration sanctioned several Chinese companies under the Iran Non-proliferation Act of 2000 for selling materials that were not specified and had documented sales from China to Iran for 500 tons of chemical precursors.
As the likelihood of a confrontation with Syria in the future grows, Damascus will seek any means necessary to curtail efforts to overthrow it. However, the growing speculation is that Assad's demise will be due to political pressure and economic sanctions over time and not a military effort which leaves Syria with little options in the face of international isolation.
Iran's Iraq agenda
Iran has emerged as a critical factor in Iraq, much to the displeasure of the US. Tehran's intentions in Iraq are both aimed at advancing its regional interests and guarding against Western interference within Iran by formulating a policy of confronting the British military in southern Iraq and the US within the Sunni Triangle.
Recent allegations by the British have implicated Iran's Revolutionary Guard with rioting and bombings in Basra. Officials in Iraq claim that Iran's Qods Force, islamic arm of the Revolutionary Guard, have met with Iraq's Sunni insurgents and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al Qaeda in Iraq groups hoping to formulate ties for future attacks on the US and British, to be utilized in case they opt to undermine the regime in Tehran. In contrast, the Iranian government blame the British for inciting ethnic tensions in southern provinces and the US for assisting Kurds in northern Iran.
In spite of Iranian collaboration with Sunni insurgents, Tehran is more likely to utilize its extensive ties and influence within Iraq's Shi'a community. Iran, however, is not restricted to Islamist Shi'a ideology and will formulate alliances with any group seeking to destablize Iraq.
Construction of Syrian facilities by the Iranians is slated to being in 2006 with millions of dollars allocated to its CW project, while desperation sets in for the State Department and European Parliment to salvage good news from the region leads them into aggressive attitudes towards Syria's involvement in the Lebanese ex-Prime Minister's death, thus leaving Iran to freely to pursue nuclear technology. The fact that Iran has shown an aptitude for concealment and delay tactics of its nuclear program should give a rise to suspicion which the US and EU focus on instead of being lead away by Iran's red herrings.
After finally finding common ground on Iran's nuclear ambitions, failed attempts to reach an agreement on a course of action has allowed Iran to escape possible sanctions. To it's credit, Tehran has worked effectively to shift attention from its nuclear efforts both through the Iraq insurgency and Syria, with great success.
Syria-Iranian cooperation
As Syria's regime increases it's paranoia over speculation of a US-led attack to topple it, it has forged ahead with an innovative chemical warfare program in cooperation with Iran hoping to deter the Bush administration from any such plans. The essence of this co-operation, a source within Damascus told Jane's Information Group "is Tehran's contractual commitment, made to Syria a few months ago, to provide Iranian Chemical Weapons technical assistance to facilitate Syria's program".
According to the source, Iran will assist Syria in the planning, establishment and pilot operation of about four or five facilities throughout Syria for the production of precursors for VX and Sarin nerve agents and mustard blister agent.(1 ) Under the terms of contract, yet to be officially signed, Iran will also supply Syria with reactors, pipes, condensers, heat exchangers (to change the temperature of materials) and storage and feed tanks, as well as chemical detection equipment all of which are necessary to construct the planned facilities within one year.
As Iran's nuclear program has captured the world's attention, its chemical weapons programs has remained in the shadows. Claims made on its CW programs by oppositions groups have not yet materialized, however, past allegations on Tehran's nuclear plans have been verified by the International Atomic Energy Agency(IAEA) through inspections and investigations. Iran's CW record was first noted during the 1980's Iran-Iraq War, where it mainly used mustard gas captured from Iraqi positions. In 2004, "Syria imported hundreds of tonnes of sodium sulfide, hydrochloric acid and ethylene glycol-MEG from Iran, which are precursors for the production of mustard blister agents and Sarin nerve gas," the source said. Iranian cooperation with hostile countries is not limited to Syria, in 2004, the Bush Administration sanctioned several Chinese companies under the Iran Non-proliferation Act of 2000 for selling materials that were not specified and had documented sales from China to Iran for 500 tons of chemical precursors.
As the likelihood of a confrontation with Syria in the future grows, Damascus will seek any means necessary to curtail efforts to overthrow it. However, the growing speculation is that Assad's demise will be due to political pressure and economic sanctions over time and not a military effort which leaves Syria with little options in the face of international isolation.
Iran's Iraq agenda
Iran has emerged as a critical factor in Iraq, much to the displeasure of the US. Tehran's intentions in Iraq are both aimed at advancing its regional interests and guarding against Western interference within Iran by formulating a policy of confronting the British military in southern Iraq and the US within the Sunni Triangle.
Recent allegations by the British have implicated Iran's Revolutionary Guard with rioting and bombings in Basra. Officials in Iraq claim that Iran's Qods Force, islamic arm of the Revolutionary Guard, have met with Iraq's Sunni insurgents and Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's Al Qaeda in Iraq groups hoping to formulate ties for future attacks on the US and British, to be utilized in case they opt to undermine the regime in Tehran. In contrast, the Iranian government blame the British for inciting ethnic tensions in southern provinces and the US for assisting Kurds in northern Iran.
In spite of Iranian collaboration with Sunni insurgents, Tehran is more likely to utilize its extensive ties and influence within Iraq's Shi'a community. Iran, however, is not restricted to Islamist Shi'a ideology and will formulate alliances with any group seeking to destablize Iraq.
Construction of Syrian facilities by the Iranians is slated to being in 2006 with millions of dollars allocated to its CW project, while desperation sets in for the State Department and European Parliment to salvage good news from the region leads them into aggressive attitudes towards Syria's involvement in the Lebanese ex-Prime Minister's death, thus leaving Iran to freely to pursue nuclear technology. The fact that Iran has shown an aptitude for concealment and delay tactics of its nuclear program should give a rise to suspicion which the US and EU focus on instead of being lead away by Iran's red herrings.
posted by Marko at 10/24/2005 09:11:00 AM
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