DOSSIER: Gen. Assaf Shawkat
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Syria's most powerful man is married to Basher Assad's sister
Over the past decade, Shawkat turned from being an outsider arrested by Assad's late father and president, Hafez, for wooing his daughter, to the most powerful man in Syria, responsible for the military and intelligence service.
Gen. Assaf Shawkat
• Position: Head of Syrian military intelligence
• Age: 55
• Whereabouts: Damascus
Assaf Shawkat plans to fight tooth and nail to prevent any international effort to prosecute him on charges of ordering the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. And if the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is toppled — then so be it.
Shawkat has been identified as the leading suspect in the killing of Hariri in February 2005. A United Nations investigation determined that Shawkat planned the assassination and prepared a bogus claim of responsibility by a fictitious Islamic group headed by a Palestinian Ahmed Abu Addas.
"Gen. Assaf Shawkat forced Mr. Abu Addas to record the tape approximately 15 days before the assassination in Damascus," the UN report submitted to the Security Council said.
Shawkat is related to the Assad family by marriage, but his rise to power has been meteoric. Over the past decade, Shawkat turned from being an outsider arrested by Assad's late father and president, Hafez, for wooing his daughter, to the most powerful man in Syria, responsible for the military and intelligence service.
In 1995, Shawkat married the late president's outspoken daughter, Bushra, and began to take control of state and military security agencies. He has also been regarded as the leading confidante of Bashar, president since 2000.
Assad cannot give up Shawkat without agreeing to surrender his younger brother, Maher. Maher, head of the Presidential Guard and a bitter rival of Shawkat's, was said to have participated in the Hariri assassination and also stands to be indicted by the International Criminal Court.
The Assad children: from left to right (back row): Maher, Bashar,
Basil, Majid, and Bushra.
"If indeed there is a Syrian national implicated, he would be considered as a traitor and most severely punished," Assad told
CNN. "Where the trial will take place [is] different.
"The apparent killing of Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan did not satisfy UN investigators. Indeed, German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis wants to dig deeper in the Assad regime to determine how he was killed and why. Any attempt by Shawkat to place sole responsibility for the Hariri assassination on Kanaan, who headed Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon from 1982 until 2002, utterly failed.
Mehlis, head of the UN investigation, was not fooled into believing that Kanaan ordered the assassination. Kanaan was no longer the Syrian lord of Lebanon and, if anything, relations between the interior minister and Shawkat were strained for nearly a year.
Western intelligence sources said Shawkat suspected Kanaan of organizing a coup against the regime following Syria's withdrawal
from Lebanon.
Sources said Shawkat contacted a Lebanese radio station and announced he would cooperate with the UN probe as a clear signal to Assad that he would not be the fall guy. Hours later, Kanaan was killed in what the regime claimed was a suicide.
Western intelligence sources said Shawkat suspected Kanaan of organizing a coup against the regime following Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon.
The sources said relations within the Assad circle has become extremely strained. Any of the seven senior Syrian intelligence officers could provide the UN interrogators with the real story and more in exchange for immunity and relocation. The regime has refused a UN request that the seven officers, including Shawkat, be interrogated outside of Syria.
"This was not a rogue operation," a source said. "Assad clearly knew and Shawkat did the work on this assassination. Maher was also heavily involved."
Assad and Shawkat have few choices. They could cooperate and that would mean the prosecution of Assad's brother-in-law and younger brother.
Neither Maher nor Shawkat is prepared to be the sacrificial lamb and either is capable of a coup attempt, including imprisoning or even killing the president.
Another option is that Assad could finger Shawkat but insist that he be tried in Lebanon. At that point, Syrian intelligence would launch a campaign to intimidate the court and witnesses. Again, this would be a dangerous ploy for Assad.
The most likely option is for Assad to try to ride out the storm, to promise cooperation, do extremely little and hope that the international community will soon become preoccupied by another issue. Sources said Syria's two allies — Egypt and Saudi Arabia — were advising on this path.
Yet there is another possibility: Syria would seek to destabilize the Middle East in an effort to up the stakes for the United States.
This could mean a terror campaign in such countries as Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Shawkat runs a huge terror network in the Middle East and he might prefer force in a policy that would be supported by Iran.
Maher Assad.
Indeed, Iran itself has threatened to destabilize the region and oil markets if the UN Security Council decides on sanctions in connection with Teheran's secret nuclear weapons program.
The Bush administration has sought Saudi and Egyptian cooperation to convince Assad to make a deal. Western intelligence sources said the deal would stipulate that Assad surrender a major regime figure, end Sunni insurgency support for the war in Iraq and expel terrorist groups from Damascus. In exchange, Washington would end the pressure on Syria and resume aid to that country.
Arab diplomatic sources said the administration offered Assad such a deal in August 2005. The deal was to have been activated by an Assad announcement to end support for the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. But one source said Assad reneged on his commitment and did not issue any announcement.
In October, a Syrian delegation met in London with Western diplomatic and intelligence officials, including those from the United States. This time, the administration demanded that Assad also cooperate with the Mehlis probe and surrendering any suspects wanted by the UN for interrogation.
Again, Assad kept mum.
"At this very moment, it is clear that the Syrian government is
experiencing its most severe of crises since the 1973 war," said
Abdul Rahman Al Rashid, a leading Saudi analyst and chief of the
Saudi-owned Al Arabiya satellite television. "Damascus has a few
options at hand," he said.
"In such crises, political wisdom must be the main actor in which the safety of the country should precede that of individuals," Al Rashid continued.
"Public interest must come before personal interest, and finally the bitter taste of accusation should be swallowed so as to avoid potential sanctions."
Syria's most powerful man is married to Basher Assad's sister
Over the past decade, Shawkat turned from being an outsider arrested by Assad's late father and president, Hafez, for wooing his daughter, to the most powerful man in Syria, responsible for the military and intelligence service.
Gen. Assaf Shawkat
• Position: Head of Syrian military intelligence
• Age: 55
• Whereabouts: Damascus
Assaf Shawkat plans to fight tooth and nail to prevent any international effort to prosecute him on charges of ordering the assassination of Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. And if the regime of Syrian President Bashar Assad is toppled — then so be it.
Shawkat has been identified as the leading suspect in the killing of Hariri in February 2005. A United Nations investigation determined that Shawkat planned the assassination and prepared a bogus claim of responsibility by a fictitious Islamic group headed by a Palestinian Ahmed Abu Addas.
"Gen. Assaf Shawkat forced Mr. Abu Addas to record the tape approximately 15 days before the assassination in Damascus," the UN report submitted to the Security Council said.
Shawkat is related to the Assad family by marriage, but his rise to power has been meteoric. Over the past decade, Shawkat turned from being an outsider arrested by Assad's late father and president, Hafez, for wooing his daughter, to the most powerful man in Syria, responsible for the military and intelligence service.
In 1995, Shawkat married the late president's outspoken daughter, Bushra, and began to take control of state and military security agencies. He has also been regarded as the leading confidante of Bashar, president since 2000.
Assad cannot give up Shawkat without agreeing to surrender his younger brother, Maher. Maher, head of the Presidential Guard and a bitter rival of Shawkat's, was said to have participated in the Hariri assassination and also stands to be indicted by the International Criminal Court.
The Assad children: from left to right (back row): Maher, Bashar,
Basil, Majid, and Bushra.
"If indeed there is a Syrian national implicated, he would be considered as a traitor and most severely punished," Assad told
CNN. "Where the trial will take place [is] different.
"The apparent killing of Interior Minister Ghazi Kanaan did not satisfy UN investigators. Indeed, German prosecutor Detlev Mehlis wants to dig deeper in the Assad regime to determine how he was killed and why. Any attempt by Shawkat to place sole responsibility for the Hariri assassination on Kanaan, who headed Syrian military intelligence in Lebanon from 1982 until 2002, utterly failed.
Mehlis, head of the UN investigation, was not fooled into believing that Kanaan ordered the assassination. Kanaan was no longer the Syrian lord of Lebanon and, if anything, relations between the interior minister and Shawkat were strained for nearly a year.
Western intelligence sources said Shawkat suspected Kanaan of organizing a coup against the regime following Syria's withdrawal
from Lebanon.
Sources said Shawkat contacted a Lebanese radio station and announced he would cooperate with the UN probe as a clear signal to Assad that he would not be the fall guy. Hours later, Kanaan was killed in what the regime claimed was a suicide.
Western intelligence sources said Shawkat suspected Kanaan of organizing a coup against the regime following Syria's withdrawal from Lebanon.
The sources said relations within the Assad circle has become extremely strained. Any of the seven senior Syrian intelligence officers could provide the UN interrogators with the real story and more in exchange for immunity and relocation. The regime has refused a UN request that the seven officers, including Shawkat, be interrogated outside of Syria.
"This was not a rogue operation," a source said. "Assad clearly knew and Shawkat did the work on this assassination. Maher was also heavily involved."
Assad and Shawkat have few choices. They could cooperate and that would mean the prosecution of Assad's brother-in-law and younger brother.
Neither Maher nor Shawkat is prepared to be the sacrificial lamb and either is capable of a coup attempt, including imprisoning or even killing the president.
Another option is that Assad could finger Shawkat but insist that he be tried in Lebanon. At that point, Syrian intelligence would launch a campaign to intimidate the court and witnesses. Again, this would be a dangerous ploy for Assad.
The most likely option is for Assad to try to ride out the storm, to promise cooperation, do extremely little and hope that the international community will soon become preoccupied by another issue. Sources said Syria's two allies — Egypt and Saudi Arabia — were advising on this path.
Yet there is another possibility: Syria would seek to destabilize the Middle East in an effort to up the stakes for the United States.
This could mean a terror campaign in such countries as Israel, Jordan and the Palestinian Authority. Shawkat runs a huge terror network in the Middle East and he might prefer force in a policy that would be supported by Iran.
Maher Assad.
Indeed, Iran itself has threatened to destabilize the region and oil markets if the UN Security Council decides on sanctions in connection with Teheran's secret nuclear weapons program.
The Bush administration has sought Saudi and Egyptian cooperation to convince Assad to make a deal. Western intelligence sources said the deal would stipulate that Assad surrender a major regime figure, end Sunni insurgency support for the war in Iraq and expel terrorist groups from Damascus. In exchange, Washington would end the pressure on Syria and resume aid to that country.
Arab diplomatic sources said the administration offered Assad such a deal in August 2005. The deal was to have been activated by an Assad announcement to end support for the Sunni insurgency in Iraq. But one source said Assad reneged on his commitment and did not issue any announcement.
In October, a Syrian delegation met in London with Western diplomatic and intelligence officials, including those from the United States. This time, the administration demanded that Assad also cooperate with the Mehlis probe and surrendering any suspects wanted by the UN for interrogation.
Again, Assad kept mum.
"At this very moment, it is clear that the Syrian government is
experiencing its most severe of crises since the 1973 war," said
Abdul Rahman Al Rashid, a leading Saudi analyst and chief of the
Saudi-owned Al Arabiya satellite television. "Damascus has a few
options at hand," he said.
"In such crises, political wisdom must be the main actor in which the safety of the country should precede that of individuals," Al Rashid continued.
"Public interest must come before personal interest, and finally the bitter taste of accusation should be swallowed so as to avoid potential sanctions."
posted by Marko at 11/04/2005 01:30:00 PM
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