The real 'Syriana'
WASHINGTON -- The real "Syriana" is far more interesting than the fictional one playing in a movie theater near you.
The movie is all about a rapacious conspiracy of oil companies and American-led governments in the Persian Gulf ganging up on the world.
But what is happening before our eyes is an Iran-Syrian axis. In between is a restive Lebanese Hezbollah movement and the Iraq insurgency.
The assassination of Beirut's top newspaper publisher is no isolated event. It occurred not only at a particularly sensitive moment for Lebanon, but for this whole region. It came on the eve of Iraq's parliamentary elections this week and just as the United Nations had caught Syria red-handed covering up another assassination plot.
Lebanon is a powder keg. While the United States said it was too early to say who was responsible for the assassination of Gibran Tueni, journalist and lawmaker, the explosion bore the mark of Syria's intelligence service, which still has a heavy presence in Lebanon.
Tueni, a fiery critic of Syria, was killed as the United Nations was receiving a final report by its special prosecutor on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It all but accused Syria of committing the crime and then covering it up by intimidation and destruction of evidence.
One witness recanted his testimony incriminating Syrian leaders in the assassination after his family received threats.
Some analysts think Lebanon could be on the brink of civil war again. Hezbollah, a Shiite organization supported by Iran's government, is the only group that kept its weapons after the 1975-1990 civil war. It is listed as a terrorist group by the State Department even though it now has representation in parliament.
Now, Hezbollah's elected representatives have withdrawn their ministers from the government in protest over Lebanon's offer to cooperate with the U.N. investigation of the Hariri assassination.
It is difficult to see how all of these developments can be occurring independently in such a short space of time without some kind of coordination among Tehran, Damascus and other entities.
They come as Iraq is holding its second, and most important, parliamentary election this week, a matter that is consuming U.S. attention as well as military force.
In this upside-down contest, the United States will win if its most bitter critics _ the Sunni Muslims of Iraq _ make a good showing. The reason is that the current parliament is dangerously unbalanced in favor of the Shiite Muslims in alliance with ethnic Kurds.
The White House, in its "Victory in Iraq" report, predicted Sunnis, who had rejected democracy, "will increasingly support a democratic Iraq provided that the federal government protects minority rights and the legitimate interests of all communities."
This election is the first big test of that theory.
The report said one of the missions in Iraq was to keep that country from becoming a "safe haven for terrorism." There appeared to be no shortage of safe havens in the neighborhood.
In Lebanon, the explosive-laden parked car that blew Tueni's armored vehicle off the road and into a valley was of impressive size. Iraqi civilian and military forces and U.S. troops have encountered munitions similar to these in recent months.
An arms embargo against Syria would seem to be the least that the U.N. could do if the German prosecutor's allegations can be nailed down a little more firmly. Stronger medicine may be needed against Iran.
The big question is whether NATO, the U.N. and other security institutions are any longer up to the task of managing security problems because of the division over the invasion of Iraq.
France and the United States have been partners in the effort to get to the bottom of the Hariri assassination. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the French foreign minister almost as soon as the news arrived here of Tueni's death.
Paris and Washington may cooperate in seeking U.N. sanctions against Syria. Meantime, Europeans and the International Atomic Energy Agency _ with Washington prodding, but staying at some distance _ are pressing Iran on its suspicious program that may be an effort to develop an atomic bomb.
Those are some of the problems presented by the real "Syriana."
The movie is all about a rapacious conspiracy of oil companies and American-led governments in the Persian Gulf ganging up on the world.
But what is happening before our eyes is an Iran-Syrian axis. In between is a restive Lebanese Hezbollah movement and the Iraq insurgency.
The assassination of Beirut's top newspaper publisher is no isolated event. It occurred not only at a particularly sensitive moment for Lebanon, but for this whole region. It came on the eve of Iraq's parliamentary elections this week and just as the United Nations had caught Syria red-handed covering up another assassination plot.
Lebanon is a powder keg. While the United States said it was too early to say who was responsible for the assassination of Gibran Tueni, journalist and lawmaker, the explosion bore the mark of Syria's intelligence service, which still has a heavy presence in Lebanon.
Tueni, a fiery critic of Syria, was killed as the United Nations was receiving a final report by its special prosecutor on the assassination of former Lebanese Prime Minister Rafik Hariri. It all but accused Syria of committing the crime and then covering it up by intimidation and destruction of evidence.
One witness recanted his testimony incriminating Syrian leaders in the assassination after his family received threats.
Some analysts think Lebanon could be on the brink of civil war again. Hezbollah, a Shiite organization supported by Iran's government, is the only group that kept its weapons after the 1975-1990 civil war. It is listed as a terrorist group by the State Department even though it now has representation in parliament.
Now, Hezbollah's elected representatives have withdrawn their ministers from the government in protest over Lebanon's offer to cooperate with the U.N. investigation of the Hariri assassination.
It is difficult to see how all of these developments can be occurring independently in such a short space of time without some kind of coordination among Tehran, Damascus and other entities.
They come as Iraq is holding its second, and most important, parliamentary election this week, a matter that is consuming U.S. attention as well as military force.
In this upside-down contest, the United States will win if its most bitter critics _ the Sunni Muslims of Iraq _ make a good showing. The reason is that the current parliament is dangerously unbalanced in favor of the Shiite Muslims in alliance with ethnic Kurds.
The White House, in its "Victory in Iraq" report, predicted Sunnis, who had rejected democracy, "will increasingly support a democratic Iraq provided that the federal government protects minority rights and the legitimate interests of all communities."
This election is the first big test of that theory.
The report said one of the missions in Iraq was to keep that country from becoming a "safe haven for terrorism." There appeared to be no shortage of safe havens in the neighborhood.
In Lebanon, the explosive-laden parked car that blew Tueni's armored vehicle off the road and into a valley was of impressive size. Iraqi civilian and military forces and U.S. troops have encountered munitions similar to these in recent months.
An arms embargo against Syria would seem to be the least that the U.N. could do if the German prosecutor's allegations can be nailed down a little more firmly. Stronger medicine may be needed against Iran.
The big question is whether NATO, the U.N. and other security institutions are any longer up to the task of managing security problems because of the division over the invasion of Iraq.
France and the United States have been partners in the effort to get to the bottom of the Hariri assassination. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice called the French foreign minister almost as soon as the news arrived here of Tueni's death.
Paris and Washington may cooperate in seeking U.N. sanctions against Syria. Meantime, Europeans and the International Atomic Energy Agency _ with Washington prodding, but staying at some distance _ are pressing Iran on its suspicious program that may be an effort to develop an atomic bomb.
Those are some of the problems presented by the real "Syriana."
posted by Marko at 12/17/2005 08:56:00 AM
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