Ahmadinejad’s nuclear gamble
Jan 10th 2006
From The Economist Global Agenda
Iran has removed the seals on its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz and says it will resume research on nuclear fuel, ending a two-year voluntary suspension, despite warnings from western Europe, Russia and America. The prospect of some form of sanctions against Iran, either agreed at the United Nations or imposed unilaterally by western countries, is growing. But Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, seems set on a showdown.
THE decision by Iran's government to break the seals at its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz, carried out on Tuesday January 10th, may prove to have been momentous. It marks an end to the Islamic republic's two-year, voluntary suspension of nuclear research agreed with European countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog. It also suggests that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set on a showdown—rather than more negotiation—with western countries over his country's nuclear ambitions.
France's president, Jacques Chirac, immediately called the decision, which was flagged last week in a note to the IAEA, “a serious error”. A spokesperson for the European Union expressed extreme concern that Iran is violating an international agreement not to pursue sensitive nuclear activities, notably the enrichment of uranium. Even Russia, which is seen as an ally of Iran and the country most likely to broker a compromise, said it was worried by the move. On Tuesday Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, called on Iran to stick to its international commitments. Such concerns are not limited to diplomats: also on Tuesday, the price of crude ticked up to $64 a barrel; traders said this was largely because of the nuclear impasse with Iran, which is one of the world's biggest oil producers.
Few governments in Europe and America doubt that Iran is using its civilian atomic-energy efforts as a cover for a nuclear weapons programme. Western suspicions are based on Iran’s record of hiding nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years until discovered in 2003. Now Iran has spurned a Russian proposal to enrich uranium on its behalf which would have provided material to be used for civilian, but not military, ends. The evidence is piling up that Mr Ahmadinejad is unwilling to compromise.
Last week Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian official in charge of nuclear issues, said his country had a non-negotiable right to resume research. Mr Ahmadinejad added that “the Iranian nation and government will defend the right to nuclear research and technology and will go forward prudently.” But Iranian delegates then failed to show up to a meeting with the IAEA in Vienna, where they were to explain the purpose of the renewed work. The IAEA’s boss, Mohamed ElBaradei, is said to be exasperated by Iran’s behaviour and its “regrettable” decision to restart research.
The likelihood of diplomatic confrontation has been growing for months. Iran resumed production of uranium gas in August, to European and American disapproval. Then it announced plans to enrich the gas in centrifuge machines at the plant in Natanz. Efforts by Russian diplomats to broker a compromise have got nowhere. At the same time Mr Ahmadinejad has been taking an ever tougher public stance. He has replaced many moderate diplomats with hardliners. This month he told a gathering of lawmakers that any policy of détente is not in Iran’s best interests. He fulminates against Israel with almost clockwork regularity. Last week he willed an early death for Israel's ill prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Previously he called Israel a “tumour” and suggested it should be wiped “off the map” or else reconstituted in Europe. In December he called the Holocaust a “myth”, stirring up wide international criticism.
Worried observers ask where all this is going. Iran’s case could soon be referred to the UN’s Security Council, where sanctions—diplomatic or economic—may be proposed. Israel worries that Iran could have usable weapons within months. Information seems to be accruing that the Islamic country is up to no good. A British newspaper, the Guardian, last week said European intelligence agencies had produced a lengthy report that fingered Iran (and other would-be nuclear powers) for running a network of traders, phoney companies, state institutions and diplomatic missions to procure the means to develop chemical, biological, nuclear and conventional weapons. Iran is said to be especially active in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia as it tries to develop “very ambitious” missile programmes. The European spies suggested that 16 Russian firms and academic institutes are helping—and profiting from—the Iranian military effort.
Much seems now to depend on the belligerent Mr Ahmadinejad, who feels he has a mission to reject the West’s “frail civilisation” and instead, with Iran’s bumper oil revenues, build a “model Islamic” country. Though he does not enjoy unanimous support at home, he is backed by the hardline Revolutionary Guard—the same institution that America and its allies suspect of using a civilian nuclear programme as cover to build a bomb. The Guard wields much influence on Iran’s behalf in next-door Iraq, and could stir up more trouble there for America if the superpower were ever to threaten to clobber Iran’s nuclear facilities. Abroad, Mr Ahmadinejad seems to rely on tacit support in the Security Council from China and Russia, and may hope that his noisy outbursts against Israel will raise Iran’s standing in the Arab world.
From The Economist Global Agenda
Iran has removed the seals on its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz and says it will resume research on nuclear fuel, ending a two-year voluntary suspension, despite warnings from western Europe, Russia and America. The prospect of some form of sanctions against Iran, either agreed at the United Nations or imposed unilaterally by western countries, is growing. But Iran's president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, seems set on a showdown.
THE decision by Iran's government to break the seals at its uranium-enrichment plant at Natanz, carried out on Tuesday January 10th, may prove to have been momentous. It marks an end to the Islamic republic's two-year, voluntary suspension of nuclear research agreed with European countries and the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), the UN's nuclear watchdog. It also suggests that President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad is set on a showdown—rather than more negotiation—with western countries over his country's nuclear ambitions.
France's president, Jacques Chirac, immediately called the decision, which was flagged last week in a note to the IAEA, “a serious error”. A spokesperson for the European Union expressed extreme concern that Iran is violating an international agreement not to pursue sensitive nuclear activities, notably the enrichment of uranium. Even Russia, which is seen as an ally of Iran and the country most likely to broker a compromise, said it was worried by the move. On Tuesday Russia's foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, called on Iran to stick to its international commitments. Such concerns are not limited to diplomats: also on Tuesday, the price of crude ticked up to $64 a barrel; traders said this was largely because of the nuclear impasse with Iran, which is one of the world's biggest oil producers.
Few governments in Europe and America doubt that Iran is using its civilian atomic-energy efforts as a cover for a nuclear weapons programme. Western suspicions are based on Iran’s record of hiding nuclear work from IAEA inspectors for 18 years until discovered in 2003. Now Iran has spurned a Russian proposal to enrich uranium on its behalf which would have provided material to be used for civilian, but not military, ends. The evidence is piling up that Mr Ahmadinejad is unwilling to compromise.
Last week Ali Larijani, the senior Iranian official in charge of nuclear issues, said his country had a non-negotiable right to resume research. Mr Ahmadinejad added that “the Iranian nation and government will defend the right to nuclear research and technology and will go forward prudently.” But Iranian delegates then failed to show up to a meeting with the IAEA in Vienna, where they were to explain the purpose of the renewed work. The IAEA’s boss, Mohamed ElBaradei, is said to be exasperated by Iran’s behaviour and its “regrettable” decision to restart research.
The likelihood of diplomatic confrontation has been growing for months. Iran resumed production of uranium gas in August, to European and American disapproval. Then it announced plans to enrich the gas in centrifuge machines at the plant in Natanz. Efforts by Russian diplomats to broker a compromise have got nowhere. At the same time Mr Ahmadinejad has been taking an ever tougher public stance. He has replaced many moderate diplomats with hardliners. This month he told a gathering of lawmakers that any policy of détente is not in Iran’s best interests. He fulminates against Israel with almost clockwork regularity. Last week he willed an early death for Israel's ill prime minister, Ariel Sharon. Previously he called Israel a “tumour” and suggested it should be wiped “off the map” or else reconstituted in Europe. In December he called the Holocaust a “myth”, stirring up wide international criticism.
Worried observers ask where all this is going. Iran’s case could soon be referred to the UN’s Security Council, where sanctions—diplomatic or economic—may be proposed. Israel worries that Iran could have usable weapons within months. Information seems to be accruing that the Islamic country is up to no good. A British newspaper, the Guardian, last week said European intelligence agencies had produced a lengthy report that fingered Iran (and other would-be nuclear powers) for running a network of traders, phoney companies, state institutions and diplomatic missions to procure the means to develop chemical, biological, nuclear and conventional weapons. Iran is said to be especially active in Azerbaijan, Armenia and Russia as it tries to develop “very ambitious” missile programmes. The European spies suggested that 16 Russian firms and academic institutes are helping—and profiting from—the Iranian military effort.
Much seems now to depend on the belligerent Mr Ahmadinejad, who feels he has a mission to reject the West’s “frail civilisation” and instead, with Iran’s bumper oil revenues, build a “model Islamic” country. Though he does not enjoy unanimous support at home, he is backed by the hardline Revolutionary Guard—the same institution that America and its allies suspect of using a civilian nuclear programme as cover to build a bomb. The Guard wields much influence on Iran’s behalf in next-door Iraq, and could stir up more trouble there for America if the superpower were ever to threaten to clobber Iran’s nuclear facilities. Abroad, Mr Ahmadinejad seems to rely on tacit support in the Security Council from China and Russia, and may hope that his noisy outbursts against Israel will raise Iran’s standing in the Arab world.
posted by Marko at 1/10/2006 08:59:00 AM
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