Almost Half of Americans Expect Terrorist Attack in 2006
Gallup: Still, few are "very worried" they will be victims
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Almost half of all American adults, 45%, believe it is likely the United States will suffer a terrorist attack in 2006, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Dec. 16-18. A bare majority, 51%, thinks such an attack is unlikely.
Just your best guess, do you think it is likely -- or unlikely -- that there will be a major terrorist attack in the United States in 2006?
BASED ON 481 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
Likely
Unlikely
No opinion
2005 Dec 16-18
45%
51
4
Although many opinions related to terrorism and the war in Iraq are highly related to people's partisan orientation, in this case there are only minor differences between Republicans and Democrats, with independents being the outliers. By 62% to 37%, independents believe an attack is likely, while majorities of Democrats and Republicans say an attack is unlikely.
Likelihood of 2006 Terrorist Attack in U.S.
Compared by Partisan Orientation
Likely
Unlikely
%
%
Overall
45
51
Republicans
37
57
Independents
62
37
Democrats
36
62
Conservatives
45
50
Moderates
45
54
Liberals
48
46
Conservatives and moderates appear slightly more likely than liberals to discount the likelihood of a terrorist attack, though the differences among the three groups are too small to be statistically significant.
While a sizable number of Americans say it is likely there will be a terrorist attack in 2006, only a small number, 11%, are "very" worried that they or someone in their families will become a victim. Another 30% say they are "somewhat" worried.
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Very
worried
Some-
what
worried
Not too
worried
Not
worried
at all
KNOW A
VICTIM
(vol.)
No
opin-
ion
%
%
%
%
%
%
2005 Dec 16-18
11
30
37
22
--
*
2005 Jul 22-24
14
33
30
23
*
*
2005 Jun 16-19
8
30
36
26
*
*
2005 Jan 7-9
10
28
37
24
*
1
2004 Dec 17-19
13
28
34
25
*
*
(vol.) = Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%
These figures are little changed from a similar survey conducted a year earlier, when 13% of Americans said they were "very" worried, and another 28% said "somewhat" worried. In both surveys, the total who express worry is 41%.
As might be expected, worry is higher among people who think it is likely there will be a 2006 terrorist attack than among those who do not. Twenty-one percent of the more pessimistic group say they are very worried about becoming a terrorism victim, and another 36% somewhat worried -- for a total of 57% of this group expressing some level of worry. Among people who think an attack is unlikely, only 29% are either very or somewhat worried.
Worry About Being Victim
of Terrorist Attack
Compared by Expectation of Terrorist Attack in U.S. in 2006
Very
worried
Somewhat
worried
TOTAL
worried
%
%
%
All respondents
11
30
41
Terrorist attack in 2006 likely
21
36
57
Terrorist attack in 2006 unlikely
5
24
29
Worry is also related to gender, with 49% of women, but only 34% of men, saying they are worried. Typically, women express more concern about terrorism than do men.
Worry About Being Victim
of Terrorist Attack
Compared by Party Affiliation and Gender
Very
worried
Somewhat
worried
TOTAL
worried
%
%
%
All respondents
11
30
41
Males
8
26
34
Females
14
35
49
Republicans
11
26
37
Independents
9
31
40
Democrats
12
34
46
Conservatives
13
32
45
Moderates
8
30
38
Liberals
13
31
44
Democrats (46%) are slightly more likely than independents (40%), who are somewhat more likely than Republicans (37%), to express worry. But there is essentially no difference between conservatives and liberals, with moderates slightly less likely than the other two groups to be worried.
Pessimism About Capturing Osama bin Laden
Most Americans believe it is unlikely (68%) that in 2006 the United States will capture or kill Osama bin Laden, the man generally thought responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. Just 27% think it is likely the terrorist leader will be captured or killed this year.
Just your best guess, do you think it is likely -- or unlikely -- that Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed in 2006?
BASED ON 522 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
Likely
Unlikely
ALREADY
DEAD (vol.)
No
opinion
2005 Dec 16-18
27%
68
2
3
These views are highly related to partisan orientation. Republicans are much more optimistic about bin Laden's capture than are Democrats or independents, though even Republicans are evenly divided on the matter. Forty-five percent of Republicans expect bin Laden to be captured or killed, while 46% say it is unlikely. By contrast, only 23% of independents and 15% of Democrats expect bin Laden's capture.
Likelihood of Osama bin Laden Being Captured or Killed in 2006
Compared by Partisan Orientation
Likely
Unlikely
%
%
Overall
27
68
Republicans
45
46
Independents
23
71
Democrats
15
83
Conservatives
36
58
Moderates
27
69
Liberals
13
82
Similarly, conservatives are more inclined to believe bin Laden will be captured (36%) than are moderates (27%) or liberals (13%). Clear majorities of all three groups believe his capture is unlikely in 2006.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 16-18, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the 481 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 522 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Almost half of all American adults, 45%, believe it is likely the United States will suffer a terrorist attack in 2006, according to a CNN/USA Today/Gallup survey, conducted Dec. 16-18. A bare majority, 51%, thinks such an attack is unlikely.
Just your best guess, do you think it is likely -- or unlikely -- that there will be a major terrorist attack in the United States in 2006?
BASED ON 481 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM A
Likely
Unlikely
No opinion
2005 Dec 16-18
45%
51
4
Although many opinions related to terrorism and the war in Iraq are highly related to people's partisan orientation, in this case there are only minor differences between Republicans and Democrats, with independents being the outliers. By 62% to 37%, independents believe an attack is likely, while majorities of Democrats and Republicans say an attack is unlikely.
Likelihood of 2006 Terrorist Attack in U.S.
Compared by Partisan Orientation
Likely
Unlikely
%
%
Overall
45
51
Republicans
37
57
Independents
62
37
Democrats
36
62
Conservatives
45
50
Moderates
45
54
Liberals
48
46
Conservatives and moderates appear slightly more likely than liberals to discount the likelihood of a terrorist attack, though the differences among the three groups are too small to be statistically significant.
While a sizable number of Americans say it is likely there will be a terrorist attack in 2006, only a small number, 11%, are "very" worried that they or someone in their families will become a victim. Another 30% say they are "somewhat" worried.
How worried are you that you or someone in your family will become a victim of terrorism -- very worried, somewhat worried, not too worried, or not worried at all?
Very
worried
Some-
what
worried
Not too
worried
Not
worried
at all
KNOW A
VICTIM
(vol.)
No
opin-
ion
%
%
%
%
%
%
2005 Dec 16-18
11
30
37
22
--
*
2005 Jul 22-24
14
33
30
23
*
*
2005 Jun 16-19
8
30
36
26
*
*
2005 Jan 7-9
10
28
37
24
*
1
2004 Dec 17-19
13
28
34
25
*
*
(vol.) = Volunteered response
* Less than 0.5%
These figures are little changed from a similar survey conducted a year earlier, when 13% of Americans said they were "very" worried, and another 28% said "somewhat" worried. In both surveys, the total who express worry is 41%.
As might be expected, worry is higher among people who think it is likely there will be a 2006 terrorist attack than among those who do not. Twenty-one percent of the more pessimistic group say they are very worried about becoming a terrorism victim, and another 36% somewhat worried -- for a total of 57% of this group expressing some level of worry. Among people who think an attack is unlikely, only 29% are either very or somewhat worried.
Worry About Being Victim
of Terrorist Attack
Compared by Expectation of Terrorist Attack in U.S. in 2006
Very
worried
Somewhat
worried
TOTAL
worried
%
%
%
All respondents
11
30
41
Terrorist attack in 2006 likely
21
36
57
Terrorist attack in 2006 unlikely
5
24
29
Worry is also related to gender, with 49% of women, but only 34% of men, saying they are worried. Typically, women express more concern about terrorism than do men.
Worry About Being Victim
of Terrorist Attack
Compared by Party Affiliation and Gender
Very
worried
Somewhat
worried
TOTAL
worried
%
%
%
All respondents
11
30
41
Males
8
26
34
Females
14
35
49
Republicans
11
26
37
Independents
9
31
40
Democrats
12
34
46
Conservatives
13
32
45
Moderates
8
30
38
Liberals
13
31
44
Democrats (46%) are slightly more likely than independents (40%), who are somewhat more likely than Republicans (37%), to express worry. But there is essentially no difference between conservatives and liberals, with moderates slightly less likely than the other two groups to be worried.
Pessimism About Capturing Osama bin Laden
Most Americans believe it is unlikely (68%) that in 2006 the United States will capture or kill Osama bin Laden, the man generally thought responsible for the 9/11 terrorist attacks in the United States. Just 27% think it is likely the terrorist leader will be captured or killed this year.
Just your best guess, do you think it is likely -- or unlikely -- that Osama bin Laden will be captured or killed in 2006?
BASED ON 522 NATIONAL ADULTS IN FORM B
Likely
Unlikely
ALREADY
DEAD (vol.)
No
opinion
2005 Dec 16-18
27%
68
2
3
These views are highly related to partisan orientation. Republicans are much more optimistic about bin Laden's capture than are Democrats or independents, though even Republicans are evenly divided on the matter. Forty-five percent of Republicans expect bin Laden to be captured or killed, while 46% say it is unlikely. By contrast, only 23% of independents and 15% of Democrats expect bin Laden's capture.
Likelihood of Osama bin Laden Being Captured or Killed in 2006
Compared by Partisan Orientation
Likely
Unlikely
%
%
Overall
27
68
Republicans
45
46
Independents
23
71
Democrats
15
83
Conservatives
36
58
Moderates
27
69
Liberals
13
82
Similarly, conservatives are more inclined to believe bin Laden will be captured (36%) than are moderates (27%) or liberals (13%). Clear majorities of all three groups believe his capture is unlikely in 2006.
Survey Methods
Results are based on telephone interviews with 1,003 national adults, aged 18 and older, conducted Dec. 16-18, 2005. For results based on the total sample of national adults, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum margin of sampling error is ±3 percentage points.
For results based on the 481 national adults in the Form A half-sample and 522 national adults in the Form B half-sample, the maximum margins of sampling error are ±5 percentage points.
In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
posted by Marko at 1/10/2006 12:56:00 AM
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