China, Russia Still Resisting Western Push on Iran

NTI: Resistance from U.N. Security Council members China and Russia to European Union and U.S. efforts to refer Iran’s nuclear dossier to the council is likely to complicate a vote at the International Atomic Energy Agency’s emergency Board of Governors meeting next week, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 23).

Meanwhile, IAEA Director General Mohamed ElBaradei rejected a request from Western countries to issue a complete progress report on Iran’s case before the meeting, the Times reported (Steven Weisman, New York Times, Jan. 24).

Instead, ElBaradei is expected to provide board members with an abbreviated update, with the full report still scheduled for release in March, Agence France-Presse reported.

The brief will be presented in response to formal requests from Australia, France, the United Kingdom and the United States, according to documents acquired by AFP (Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 23).

Security Council referral requires a majority vote of the agency’s 35 board members, and some EU and U.S. officials believe that up to 20 members could be ready to send Iran’s case to the international body. Referral without Russian and Chinese support would, however, effectively negate any possibility of action at the Security Council.

Without a tough assessment from ElBaradei, support for such a vote could also be eroded, a European diplomat told the Times.

Russia is pushing for Iran’s nuclear activities to be reported for consideration by the Security Council. If negotiations then fail, pressure would increase for a referral at the board’s next regular meeting in early March. European diplomats said that formula was emerging as a likely scenario.

“The decision of ElBaradei to not advance a report right away makes the Russian timetable more likely than the European timetable,” said the diplomat. (Weisman, New York Times, Jan. 24).

China announced today that it is “conscientiously studying” the EU draft proposal to refer Iran’s nuclear dossier to the Security Council, Reuters reported.

“But on the other hand, we believe that further applying diplomatic efforts, and diplomatic means to resolve the Iranian nuclear issue, remains a relatively suitable and better option,” said Foreign Ministry spokesman Kong Quan (Chris Buckley, Reuters, Jan. 24).

The IAEA deputy director general for safeguards, Ollie Heinonen, is scheduled to travel to Iran tomorrow to follow up on several agency requests, including access to the Lavizan site in Tehran, AFP reported yesterday.

“But it will take time to evaluate the results, even if a breakthrough is made in access and in getting data, on P-2 centrifuges, for instance,” said one diplomat.

Diplomats have said that Iran may have received three shipments of sophisticated P-2 uranium enrichment centrifuges. Iran has denied the allegations (Agence France-Presse I, Jan. 23).

The United States said yesterday that it was “absolutely” crucial to refer the issue to the Security Council, AFP reported.

“The case for referral is very strong and that’s what we intend to seek at the IAEA Board of Governors meeting,” said Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice.

“The Security Council can then take up the matter at a later time but the referral absolutely has to be made,” she said.

State Department spokesman Sean McCormack said such a delay could provide time for a negotiated resolution to the standoff.

“Our hope is that once Iran is referred to the Security Council that that provides a context in which a diplomatic solution can be found,” McCormack said (Agence France-Presse II/IranMania.com, Jan. 23).

U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton said yesterday that President George W. Bush was determined to resolve the issue peacefully “but has made clear that a nuclear Iran is not acceptable,” the Jerusalem Post reported.

Bolton added that, even if Iran’s case is referred to the Security Council next month, it remained unlikely that sanctions would be imposed immediately.

“In the first instance I suspect that if it comes to the Security Council in a few weeks we would look for a statement that essentially calls on Iran to comply with the existing IAEA resolutions,” he said. “I think that would be a gut check for the Iranians, and if they don’t heed that warning we would have to consider what to do next” (Herb Keinon, Jerusalem Post, Jan. 23).

Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick said today that the United States hopes to avoid an escalation of the crisis, Reuters reported.

“My country is trying to avoid any confrontation,” Zoellick said.

“That’s why we’ve worked with the Russians and others on this process and that’s why we’re trying to work in the global context with our U.N. Security Council partners and others to make clear to Iran that this would not be a positive development,” he said (Reuters/Yahoo!News, Jan. 24).