Palestinian Territories politics: Hamas ahead
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Hamas, the main Palestinian Islamist group, is poised to make a strong showing in the parliamentary election in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on January 25th, and may even supplant Fatah, the movement founded by the later Yasser Arafat, as the largest party in the legislature. This change in the Palestinian political landscape will have an important bearing on the next phase of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the ongoing international efforts to resolve it. It is also likely to bring changes to Hamas itself, if the movement chooses to use its electoral advances as a means to integrate itself into existing Palestinian Authority (PA) institutions, rather than as the basis for a fresh military campaign.
Opinion polls taken in the lead-up to the election have shown Hamas steadily gaining ground to be almost level with Fatah, at just over 30%. The Islamist movement has built up a strong following over the years because of its actions against Israel, including suicide bombings, but also because of its discipline and social work. Since mid-2005 Hamas has adhered to a "pause" in its armed operations, and its leaders in the Palestinian Territories have hinted at a willingness to participate in a negotiated settlement with Israel, based on an end to occupation. Hamas has claimed credit for forcing Israel to withdraw from Gaza.
The programme issued by the Change and Reform list of Hamas differs significantly from previous policy documents issued by the movement in that it can be interpreted as accepting Palestinian statehood being confined to the West Bank and Gaza, rather than demanding the liberation of the entire territory of historic Palestine--and the removal of the state of Israel. The programme states that participation in the election is "part of the overall plan for the liberation of Palestine, return of the Palestinian people to its land and homeland and founding its independent state with Jerusalem as its capital". It does not specifically advocate continuation of the "armed struggle" against Israel, although it does uphold the right to armed resistance to occupation. The programme is similar in its essentials to the position of Fatah, which is based on establishing a West Bank and Gaza state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and safeguarding the rights of Palestinian refugees.
However, there are many ambiguities in the Hamas programme, and tougher interpretations of what it might mean in practice have been provided by members of the movement's military wing and by party officers based outside the Palestinian Territories.
Downbeat Abu Mazen
The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas (commonly referred to as Abu Mazen) has pronounced himself to be unconcerned at the prospect of Hamas winning a large bloc of seats in the new parliament--indeed he maintains that he has long advocated Hamas playing a role in formal Palestinian politics, as part of the process of the movement's disarmament. However, he has also indicated that he would consider resigning if the parliament took up a position against the Oslo peace process and the international road map.
In the lead-up to the election, Fatah, which is led by Mr Abbas, has suffered severe ructions, as a reformist wing split from the main party in protest at the interference of the old guard in drawing up the candidate lists. Mr Abbas managed to patch up the differences between the rival wings, and there is now a single Fatah list. This intense infighting is not likely to improve the party's chances in the election itself.
Mr Abbas has witnessed the disintegration of the PA's finances over the past few months, as failure to keep expenditure on public-sector salaries has swollen the budget deficit and prompted international donors to withhold pledged funds until the matter is rectified. It has also recently emerged that the Ministry of Finance has resorted to heavy drawing on the resources of the Palestine Investment Fund (PIF), a supposedly autonomous company formed to manage the PA's investment portfolio, to help meet its current spending obligations.
Hamas housekeeping
The EU, which is the largest source of donor finance for the PA, is maintaining a neutral stance on the election. However, it is highly likely that EU officials will have to deal directly with Hamas officials after the election, whether it be on parliamentary committees or in government, if the aid programme is to continue. Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU commissioner for external relations, said on a recent visit to the West Bank and Gaza: "We will continue to offer our support to all those who seek peace by peaceful means." That does not preclude dealing with Hamas, as long as the movement continues to abide by its current effective ceasefire. However, US agencies and Israel are unlikely to shift from their demand that the armed wing of Hamas be disbanded.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Middle East
Hamas, the main Palestinian Islamist group, is poised to make a strong showing in the parliamentary election in the West Bank and Gaza Strip on January 25th, and may even supplant Fatah, the movement founded by the later Yasser Arafat, as the largest party in the legislature. This change in the Palestinian political landscape will have an important bearing on the next phase of the Arab-Israeli conflict and the ongoing international efforts to resolve it. It is also likely to bring changes to Hamas itself, if the movement chooses to use its electoral advances as a means to integrate itself into existing Palestinian Authority (PA) institutions, rather than as the basis for a fresh military campaign.
Opinion polls taken in the lead-up to the election have shown Hamas steadily gaining ground to be almost level with Fatah, at just over 30%. The Islamist movement has built up a strong following over the years because of its actions against Israel, including suicide bombings, but also because of its discipline and social work. Since mid-2005 Hamas has adhered to a "pause" in its armed operations, and its leaders in the Palestinian Territories have hinted at a willingness to participate in a negotiated settlement with Israel, based on an end to occupation. Hamas has claimed credit for forcing Israel to withdraw from Gaza.
The programme issued by the Change and Reform list of Hamas differs significantly from previous policy documents issued by the movement in that it can be interpreted as accepting Palestinian statehood being confined to the West Bank and Gaza, rather than demanding the liberation of the entire territory of historic Palestine--and the removal of the state of Israel. The programme states that participation in the election is "part of the overall plan for the liberation of Palestine, return of the Palestinian people to its land and homeland and founding its independent state with Jerusalem as its capital". It does not specifically advocate continuation of the "armed struggle" against Israel, although it does uphold the right to armed resistance to occupation. The programme is similar in its essentials to the position of Fatah, which is based on establishing a West Bank and Gaza state, with East Jerusalem as its capital, and safeguarding the rights of Palestinian refugees.
However, there are many ambiguities in the Hamas programme, and tougher interpretations of what it might mean in practice have been provided by members of the movement's military wing and by party officers based outside the Palestinian Territories.
Downbeat Abu Mazen
The Palestinian president, Mahmoud Abbas (commonly referred to as Abu Mazen) has pronounced himself to be unconcerned at the prospect of Hamas winning a large bloc of seats in the new parliament--indeed he maintains that he has long advocated Hamas playing a role in formal Palestinian politics, as part of the process of the movement's disarmament. However, he has also indicated that he would consider resigning if the parliament took up a position against the Oslo peace process and the international road map.
In the lead-up to the election, Fatah, which is led by Mr Abbas, has suffered severe ructions, as a reformist wing split from the main party in protest at the interference of the old guard in drawing up the candidate lists. Mr Abbas managed to patch up the differences between the rival wings, and there is now a single Fatah list. This intense infighting is not likely to improve the party's chances in the election itself.
Mr Abbas has witnessed the disintegration of the PA's finances over the past few months, as failure to keep expenditure on public-sector salaries has swollen the budget deficit and prompted international donors to withhold pledged funds until the matter is rectified. It has also recently emerged that the Ministry of Finance has resorted to heavy drawing on the resources of the Palestine Investment Fund (PIF), a supposedly autonomous company formed to manage the PA's investment portfolio, to help meet its current spending obligations.
Hamas housekeeping
The EU, which is the largest source of donor finance for the PA, is maintaining a neutral stance on the election. However, it is highly likely that EU officials will have to deal directly with Hamas officials after the election, whether it be on parliamentary committees or in government, if the aid programme is to continue. Benita Ferrero-Waldner, the EU commissioner for external relations, said on a recent visit to the West Bank and Gaza: "We will continue to offer our support to all those who seek peace by peaceful means." That does not preclude dealing with Hamas, as long as the movement continues to abide by its current effective ceasefire. However, US agencies and Israel are unlikely to shift from their demand that the armed wing of Hamas be disbanded.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Middle East
posted by Marko at 1/19/2006 10:56:00 AM
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