Sharon illness creates political upheaval
ISN SECURITY WATCH (05/01/06) – Israeli Prime Minister Ariel Sharon has been transferred to a neurological intensive-care ward after a second round of operations on Thursday morning to halt a life-threatening brain hemorrhage, as speculation grows as to the possible political impact of his illness.
Doctors are struggling to keep the 77-year old leader alive after he suffered what is being described as a "significant stroke."
Surgeons worked for over seven hours early Thursday morning to halt intra-cranial bleeding caused by the stroke, in a series of operations that Hadassah Ein Kerem hospital director Dr. Shlomo Mor-Yosef described as an effort to give time for medicines to take effect.
The latest report said the prime minister's vital signs were strong, but that he remained in very serious condition after doctors had succeeded in halting the brain hemorrhage.
According to a neurosurgeon, spoken to by broadcaster CNN, the second round of operations, which followed a CAT scan of Sharon's brain, is a sign that doctors had difficulty halting the bleeding. Surgeons were forced to perform a craniotomy in an effort to drain bleeding that was putting significant pressure on the brain.
The prime minister's condition is complicated by his use of blood thinners, prescribed after he suffered a mild stroke on 18 December. The blood-thinning medicines are thought to be the cause of the brain hemorrhage.
Sharon was rushed to the Jerusalem hospital after complaining of feeling unwell at his family ranch in southern Israel. The decision to drive Sharon to Jerusalem, rather than taking him to the much closer Soroka Hospital in Beersheva, is already the focus of significant media criticism.
According to reports, Sharon suffered the stroke en route to hospital and was unconscious on arrival - a sign, according to medical experts, that he was in very serious condition before treatment started. According to reports, the premier's condition deteriorated further immediately after he was admitted.
Israel's Channel Two reported that Sharon was suffering from lower-body paralysis on arrival at the hospital. He had been scheduled to undergo an angioplasty on Thursday to repair a hole in his heart that is believed to have caused the first stroke.
All prime ministerial powers have been officially transferred to Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is convening a meeting of the Israeli cabinet this morning to discuss the situation.
The seeming incapacitation of Sharon throws the Israeli political system into turmoil once again, with the future of his Kadima Party a particular subject of intense speculation.
Olmert, who is a former mayor of Jerusalem, was Sharon's closest ally in internal political battles within the Likud over the Gaza disengagement and recently joined the prime minister in leaving the party to form the centrist Kadima (Forward) list.
Professor Shmuel Sandler from the Political Studies Department at Bar Ilan University, told ISN Security Watch that Olmert's "main problem will be projecting credibility on security issues […] we are going to have to see if he is able to step into the vacuum that Sharon has left".
Olmert is known to harbor a deep personal animosity against the new head of the Likud party, Binyamin Netanyahu. He and other recent exiles are unlikely to receive a warm welcome in their former party should Kadima collapse.
Former Labor head Shimon Peres, though not an official member of the new party, may look to step into the political vacuum after a possible departure of Sharon, though he is extremely unlikely to garner sufficient support for the leadership from the predominantly ex-Likudnik party hierarchy.
Sandler laughed when the possibility of Peres leading Kadima was raised, saying, "Peres will definitely want to, but they won't let him. If he had stayed in Labor, he might have had a chance; as of now he has no political base."
The impact of Sharon's illness on Kadima's future electoral performance is difficult to predict. Labor lost in 1996 after an election campaign that followed immediately on the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, and there is no guarantee of a sympathy vote for Kadima should Sharon die or be reduced to the status of a lame-duck figurehead.
Kadima has no binding ideological base or firmly established platform on major policy issues, including the future trajectory of the peace process, on which significant differences exist between prominent former Likud and Labor figures.
Sandler agreed with the suggestion that Israel now faces political turmoil: "Yes, you could say that we are in a political crisis. This has caught us in the middle of a political campaign, and this party [Kadima] was created around one man [Sharon]."
Without the figure of Ariel Sharon and his apparent ability to secure close to 40 parliamentary seats, the coalition of convenience that is Kadima could begin to unravel relatively quickly under the blowtorch of electoral campaigning.
The Labor, Likud, and centrist Shinui parties may benefit politically from the return of voters from Kadima. According to Sandler, "This saves Shinui. Shinui is the main political beneficiary; and the Likud [as well], as more votes will go back to them." According to recent polls, the fervently secularist Shinui was on the verge of dropping out of the Knesset altogether after garnering 15 seats in 2003.
Sandler predicts that Netanyahu will now make an effort to project a more moderate image in order to attract disenchanted Likud voters who have recently given their support to Kadima. "What we will have to watch is whether Netanyahu will now move to the center" he said, adding that the key will be whether the public believes this shift.
The impact of Sharon's illness on the future of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is also unclear. Under the likely leadership of Olmert – who has taken increasingly dovish stances in recent years - and Labor head Amir Peretz, two of the three major parties are likely to favor significant withdrawals from the West Bank and a rapid return to full peace negotiations that were halted in 2000.
Doctors are struggling to keep the 77-year old leader alive after he suffered what is being described as a "significant stroke."
Surgeons worked for over seven hours early Thursday morning to halt intra-cranial bleeding caused by the stroke, in a series of operations that Hadassah Ein Kerem hospital director Dr. Shlomo Mor-Yosef described as an effort to give time for medicines to take effect.
The latest report said the prime minister's vital signs were strong, but that he remained in very serious condition after doctors had succeeded in halting the brain hemorrhage.
According to a neurosurgeon, spoken to by broadcaster CNN, the second round of operations, which followed a CAT scan of Sharon's brain, is a sign that doctors had difficulty halting the bleeding. Surgeons were forced to perform a craniotomy in an effort to drain bleeding that was putting significant pressure on the brain.
The prime minister's condition is complicated by his use of blood thinners, prescribed after he suffered a mild stroke on 18 December. The blood-thinning medicines are thought to be the cause of the brain hemorrhage.
Sharon was rushed to the Jerusalem hospital after complaining of feeling unwell at his family ranch in southern Israel. The decision to drive Sharon to Jerusalem, rather than taking him to the much closer Soroka Hospital in Beersheva, is already the focus of significant media criticism.
According to reports, Sharon suffered the stroke en route to hospital and was unconscious on arrival - a sign, according to medical experts, that he was in very serious condition before treatment started. According to reports, the premier's condition deteriorated further immediately after he was admitted.
Israel's Channel Two reported that Sharon was suffering from lower-body paralysis on arrival at the hospital. He had been scheduled to undergo an angioplasty on Thursday to repair a hole in his heart that is believed to have caused the first stroke.
All prime ministerial powers have been officially transferred to Deputy Prime Minister Ehud Olmert, who is convening a meeting of the Israeli cabinet this morning to discuss the situation.
The seeming incapacitation of Sharon throws the Israeli political system into turmoil once again, with the future of his Kadima Party a particular subject of intense speculation.
Olmert, who is a former mayor of Jerusalem, was Sharon's closest ally in internal political battles within the Likud over the Gaza disengagement and recently joined the prime minister in leaving the party to form the centrist Kadima (Forward) list.
Professor Shmuel Sandler from the Political Studies Department at Bar Ilan University, told ISN Security Watch that Olmert's "main problem will be projecting credibility on security issues […] we are going to have to see if he is able to step into the vacuum that Sharon has left".
Olmert is known to harbor a deep personal animosity against the new head of the Likud party, Binyamin Netanyahu. He and other recent exiles are unlikely to receive a warm welcome in their former party should Kadima collapse.
Former Labor head Shimon Peres, though not an official member of the new party, may look to step into the political vacuum after a possible departure of Sharon, though he is extremely unlikely to garner sufficient support for the leadership from the predominantly ex-Likudnik party hierarchy.
Sandler laughed when the possibility of Peres leading Kadima was raised, saying, "Peres will definitely want to, but they won't let him. If he had stayed in Labor, he might have had a chance; as of now he has no political base."
The impact of Sharon's illness on Kadima's future electoral performance is difficult to predict. Labor lost in 1996 after an election campaign that followed immediately on the assassination of Yitzhak Rabin, and there is no guarantee of a sympathy vote for Kadima should Sharon die or be reduced to the status of a lame-duck figurehead.
Kadima has no binding ideological base or firmly established platform on major policy issues, including the future trajectory of the peace process, on which significant differences exist between prominent former Likud and Labor figures.
Sandler agreed with the suggestion that Israel now faces political turmoil: "Yes, you could say that we are in a political crisis. This has caught us in the middle of a political campaign, and this party [Kadima] was created around one man [Sharon]."
Without the figure of Ariel Sharon and his apparent ability to secure close to 40 parliamentary seats, the coalition of convenience that is Kadima could begin to unravel relatively quickly under the blowtorch of electoral campaigning.
The Labor, Likud, and centrist Shinui parties may benefit politically from the return of voters from Kadima. According to Sandler, "This saves Shinui. Shinui is the main political beneficiary; and the Likud [as well], as more votes will go back to them." According to recent polls, the fervently secularist Shinui was on the verge of dropping out of the Knesset altogether after garnering 15 seats in 2003.
Sandler predicts that Netanyahu will now make an effort to project a more moderate image in order to attract disenchanted Likud voters who have recently given their support to Kadima. "What we will have to watch is whether Netanyahu will now move to the center" he said, adding that the key will be whether the public believes this shift.
The impact of Sharon's illness on the future of the Palestinian-Israeli peace process is also unclear. Under the likely leadership of Olmert – who has taken increasingly dovish stances in recent years - and Labor head Amir Peretz, two of the three major parties are likely to favor significant withdrawals from the West Bank and a rapid return to full peace negotiations that were halted in 2000.
posted by Marko at 1/05/2006 10:01:00 PM
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