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Thursday, February 16, 2006

Head of Russian region quits, instability feared

MAKHACHKALA, Russia, Feb 16 (Reuters) - The head of Russia's Dagestan republic quit on grounds of age on Thursday, plunging the volatile Muslim-majority region into a power struggle that analysts said could spill over into widespread violence.

Dagestan borders the separatist region of Chechnya and the Kremlin fears an Islamist insurgency by Chechen rebels could infect the republic, which is already rocked regularly by bombings and gangland assassinations.

Magomedali Magomedov, 75, told reporters in Dagestan's capital Makhachkala he had asked Russian President Vladimir Putin to accept his resignation as chairman of Dagestan's State Council, de facto leader of the republic.

"I told the president I am getting old and asked him to accept my resignation. The president agreed," Magomedov said on arrival at the airport from Moscow.

In effective charge of Dagestan since 1983, Magomedov has been credited with preventing tensions in his region from spiralling out of control.

At a meeting of the State Council, Magomedov put forward Mukhu Aliyev, 65, currently chairman of the People's Assembly, as his successor.

Aliyev is an ethnic Avar, the largest national group in the country. The People's Assembly will meet to approve Magomedov's resignation on Friday.

OPEN GAME

Analysts blame a combination of organised crime and Islamist militants sympathetic to Chechen separatists for the violence in Dagestan, which is a patchwork of different ethnic groups.

Magomedov's resignation throws the republic's delicate political balance into uncertainty, analysts said.

"This opens the game right up and could destabilise the republic," said Charles Blandy, a research fellow at the Conflict Studies Research Centre at Britain's Defence Academy at Shrivenham.

"It is a very delicate situation with ethnic rivalries, a population that is living in poverty, competition for political and economic resources, radical Islam and a campaign of subversive activities."

Magomedov became Dagestan's leader when it was a semi-autonomous Soviet republic.

He remained in power after the collapse of communism and was elected three times as head of the State Council. His current term in office had been due to expire in July.

Under new rules introduced last year, regional leaders are no longer directly elected but are nominated by Putin and then approved by the local legislature.

"The Kremlin (now) faces a really entrenched clan system with many strong players that are really hungry for power and will use this opportunity," said Nabi Abdullayev, an analyst with the Moscow-based Center for Eurasian Security Studies.

"This may lead to a serious destabilisation in Dagestan because all these clans run their own paramilitaries, their own private armies and have a lot of manpower and a lot of money," said Abdullayev.

"Also there is an external factor here with the religious insurgency that is going on in the North Caucasus. More terrorist attacks happened in Dagestan last year than in Chechnya and (neighbouring) Ingushetia."
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