Iraq politics: Man in the middle
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who has unobtrusively occupied the most powerful position in Iraqi politics for most of the past year, is set to hold on to the office of prime minister in the country's first permanent government of the post-invasion era. Mr Jaafari came out narrowly ahead, by 64 votes to 63, in an election involving MPs of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which holds the largest bloc of seats in the 275-member parliament. As the official candidate of the UIA, Mr Jaafari has the task of negotiating with other blocs--Kurds, Sunni Islamist, and secularist--about the make-up of a new government, while seeking to preserve the unity of the faction-ridden UIA.
Mr Jaafari owed his success to the support that his Daawa faction received from followers of Moqtada al-Sadr and from the Fadhila, an allied group claiming legitimacy from Mr Sadr's assassinated father. Mr Sadr and Fadhila made major gains in the mid-December general election, largely at the expense of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and together constitute the largest bloc within the UIA, with more than one-third of its 128 seats. SCIRI's candidate for prime minister was Adel Abdel-Mahdi, a former finance minister.
The nomination of Mr Jaafari came as a disappointment to the Kurdish bloc, which had made clear that it preferred the prospect of working with Mr Abdel-Mahdi. The Kurdish parties had criticised Mr Jaafari for his lack of sympathy with Kurdish demands regarding the northern oil city of Kirkuk, and are clearly uncomfortable with the idea of Mr Sadr having a powerful say in forming government policy. Mr Sadr is in favour of placing limits on the autonomy granted according to the new constitution, whereas the Kurds wish to maximise their independence from Baghdad, and he backs a stronger emphasis on Islamic codes of law than the Kurds and secularists are willing to countenance. The current president, Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, has stated that he will only join a new coalition if the secularist Iraqi National List, headed by Ayad Allawi, Mr Jaafari's predecessor as prime minister, is included. However, Mr Allawi himself has little bargaining power, with only 25 seats, and it is likely that Mr Talabani is merely using him as a bargaining chip.
Mr Jaafari will also be seeking to draw the main Sunni parties, with 55 seats in total, into the new government. These parties have strongly criticised Mr Jaafari's performance as prime minister, but this has mainly been on account of his failure to control elements in the interior ministry that were affiliated to the Badr Brigade militia of SCIRI, and which were accused of abuses committed against Sunni Arab prisoners. The backing of Mr Sadr for Mr Jaafari should provide some assurance for the Sunnis, given the radical cleric's record of offering solidarity with those elements of the Sunni insurgency that focus their operations on attacking US forces rather than Iraqi government and civilian targets.
In order to form a government, Mr Jaafari needs a two-thirds majority in parliament. However, he is likely to aim higher and accommodate both the Kurds and the Sunni blocs in a government of national unity. That, of itself will be no easy task. He also faces a tough challenge in satisfying all of the factions within the UIA. SCIRI is likely to demand the finance and interior posts, while Mr Sadr has laid claim to ministries dealing with social affairs. Fadhila now has a foothold in the oil ministry, following the dismissal of the previous minister, Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, whose standing was diminished following his failure to win a seat in the election.
The constitution requires a government to be formed within two months of the election result being certified--which finally happened on February 10th. It will be surprising if Mr Jaafari manages to come up with a coalition much before that deadline.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Middle East
Ibrahim al-Jaafari, who has unobtrusively occupied the most powerful position in Iraqi politics for most of the past year, is set to hold on to the office of prime minister in the country's first permanent government of the post-invasion era. Mr Jaafari came out narrowly ahead, by 64 votes to 63, in an election involving MPs of the United Iraqi Alliance (UIA), which holds the largest bloc of seats in the 275-member parliament. As the official candidate of the UIA, Mr Jaafari has the task of negotiating with other blocs--Kurds, Sunni Islamist, and secularist--about the make-up of a new government, while seeking to preserve the unity of the faction-ridden UIA.
Mr Jaafari owed his success to the support that his Daawa faction received from followers of Moqtada al-Sadr and from the Fadhila, an allied group claiming legitimacy from Mr Sadr's assassinated father. Mr Sadr and Fadhila made major gains in the mid-December general election, largely at the expense of the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI), and together constitute the largest bloc within the UIA, with more than one-third of its 128 seats. SCIRI's candidate for prime minister was Adel Abdel-Mahdi, a former finance minister.
The nomination of Mr Jaafari came as a disappointment to the Kurdish bloc, which had made clear that it preferred the prospect of working with Mr Abdel-Mahdi. The Kurdish parties had criticised Mr Jaafari for his lack of sympathy with Kurdish demands regarding the northern oil city of Kirkuk, and are clearly uncomfortable with the idea of Mr Sadr having a powerful say in forming government policy. Mr Sadr is in favour of placing limits on the autonomy granted according to the new constitution, whereas the Kurds wish to maximise their independence from Baghdad, and he backs a stronger emphasis on Islamic codes of law than the Kurds and secularists are willing to countenance. The current president, Jalal Talabani, leader of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan, has stated that he will only join a new coalition if the secularist Iraqi National List, headed by Ayad Allawi, Mr Jaafari's predecessor as prime minister, is included. However, Mr Allawi himself has little bargaining power, with only 25 seats, and it is likely that Mr Talabani is merely using him as a bargaining chip.
Mr Jaafari will also be seeking to draw the main Sunni parties, with 55 seats in total, into the new government. These parties have strongly criticised Mr Jaafari's performance as prime minister, but this has mainly been on account of his failure to control elements in the interior ministry that were affiliated to the Badr Brigade militia of SCIRI, and which were accused of abuses committed against Sunni Arab prisoners. The backing of Mr Sadr for Mr Jaafari should provide some assurance for the Sunnis, given the radical cleric's record of offering solidarity with those elements of the Sunni insurgency that focus their operations on attacking US forces rather than Iraqi government and civilian targets.
In order to form a government, Mr Jaafari needs a two-thirds majority in parliament. However, he is likely to aim higher and accommodate both the Kurds and the Sunni blocs in a government of national unity. That, of itself will be no easy task. He also faces a tough challenge in satisfying all of the factions within the UIA. SCIRI is likely to demand the finance and interior posts, while Mr Sadr has laid claim to ministries dealing with social affairs. Fadhila now has a foothold in the oil ministry, following the dismissal of the previous minister, Mohammed Bahr al-Uloum, whose standing was diminished following his failure to win a seat in the election.
The constitution requires a government to be formed within two months of the election result being certified--which finally happened on February 10th. It will be surprising if Mr Jaafari manages to come up with a coalition much before that deadline.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Middle East
posted by Marko at 2/14/2006 07:41:00 AM
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