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Friday, March 24, 2006

Helmand province and the Afghan insurgency

The desolate region of Helmand in Afghanistan is becoming a hotbed for would-be Taleban and insurgents.

A desolate and largely lawless region with a population of just over one million and a surface area of 23,058 square miles, the strategically-located southwestern Afghan province of Helmand is emerging as the center of the neo-Taliban and the broader Pashtun insurgency.

A string of deadly insurgent attacks this year have claimed the lives of several Helmand officials. The latest attack claimed the life of the Sangin district governor, Amir Jan, on March 3. Amir Jan was killed while vacationing in the Musa Qala district (Pajhwok Afghan News, March 4). Prior to this incident, at least 28 people, including the Musa Qala district chief, Abdul Quddus, were killed on February 2 in intensive fighting with over 200 Taliban insurgents. The battle—which lasted more than 10 hours—took place in the Sangin, Nawzad and Musa Qala districts, which are located in the extreme south of Helmand.

According to Amir Mohammad Akhund, deputy governor of Helmand, "fighting erupted when militants attacked a government office in Musa Qala district, killing the local government district chief" (Azadi Radio, February 4). Meanwhile, a spokesman for the Afghan Interior Ministry, Yousef Istanizai, claimed that the battle in early February had been "the most serious incident in the last year" (Tolo TV, February 3). Istanizai also claimed that two Taliban leaders—Mullah Dadullah and Mullah Turjan—were killed in the fighting. It is not clear if Istanizai was referring to the notorious Mullah Dadullah, who is believed to be the leader of the resurgent Taliban movement in the south and who is still alive.
Causes of violence

Following the recent Helmand clashes, some of the representatives in parliament criticized the central government's strategies in counter-narcotics, anti-corruption campaigns and disarmament programs. Helmand representative in the lower house of parliament, Nasima Niazi, told Sadi Bamdad daily on February 4 that the formation of 200 Taliban militants is a result of the dissatisfaction felt by many distressed Afghan farmers. "Now when the farmers want to exploit the result of their plants, the government has started destroying them," said Niazi. "Though I don't agree with planting opium, I still want the government to have a definite strategy" (Sadi Bamdad, February 4).

Aside from agriculture and the opium trade, widespread unemployment is believed to be a major cause of unrest in Helmand. According to Mukhtar Pidram, an Afghan political analyst, "During the last four years, the government has not established even a small company to employ unskilled youths…unemployment is one of the main factors driving dissatisfaction with the [Hamid] Karzai government and the main factor leading youths to embrace 'Mafias' in Afghanistan" (Danishjo Weekly, February 6).

Moreover, heavy-handedness and perceived oppression by the police and the security forces is undermining efforts to bring stability to Helmand. A group of Helmand elders voiced their concerns about this issue in a February 8 meeting with President Karzai in Kabul. Apparently, Karzai promised the Helmand elders that he would investigate their claims (Radio Afghanistan, February 8). According to Pidram, heavy-handedness by the security forces goes hand in hand with "warlordism, which is a big challenge facing the government and the people. These elements are still strong and control most of the military and civilian institutions, especially in provinces such as Helmand, which is a center of the narcotics trade" (Danishjo Weekly, February 6).

Furthermore, Helmand, aside from being a largely Pashtun province, is from where many senior officials of the former Taliban regime originated. For instance, the culture and information minister of the former Taliban regime, Mullah Amir Khan Muttaqi, was from Helmand. Additionally, Helmand youths formed some of the most effective and fearless units of the Taliban military. When Kandahar fell in late 2001, it is believed that many Taliban leaders sought sanctuary in Helmand. Given this long and deep-rooted association with the Taliban, it is not altogether surprising that former Taliban elements and sympathetic constituencies in broader Pashtun society are at the forefront of the insurgency in this desolate and wretched province. If the Afghan government and its Western allies are serious about tackling the problems in Helmand, they have to reach some sort of accommodation with aggrieved Pashtuns. Otherwise, the Taliban will be able to count on their support indefinitely.
Foreign influence

Following every clash and suicide attack, Afghan officials customarily point an accusing finger at Pakistan and its notorious Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (ISI). For instance, following the 10 hour long clashes in early February, Afghan Interior Minister Zarar Ahmad Muqbil, while speaking at the lower house of parliament, claimed that the "eastern" neighbor to Afghanistan (Pakistan) has equipped and sent the Taliban to fight against the central government. According to Muqbil, "Helmand, Kandahar, Paktia, Paktika, Kunar and Nuristan are those provinces which are insecure and restive. I must say clearly that these are the provinces which have joint borders with Pakistan" (Azadi Radio, February 13).

Moreover, Afghan Defense Minister Abdul Rahim Wardak, while speaking at the lower house of parliament, implicitly accused Pakistan of causing unrest and chaos in Helmand. "The terrorists who attack our young democracy have been trained, equipped and sent from abroad," Wardak stated (Azadi Radio, February 13). Furthermore, the national security chief, Amrullah Saleh, recently argued that the Afghan government "must put pressure on a specific country which trains and cooperates [with the terrorists] and from where they have been sent to instigate terrorist attacks" (Pajhwok Afghan News, February 12).

An Afghan journalist, Omid Ahmadi, believes that more than 60 countries with different strategies and policies are united in their stand against terrorism in Afghanistan. The only exception, according to Ahmadi, is Pakistan. "Among these countries, Pakistan is sparking chaos, and it has to review its policies," said Ahmadi (Murdum Weekly, February 16).
A holy war?

Most of the gunmen and suicide attackers in Helmand are believed to be ideologically-motivated and fully committed to the cause of jihad. Waheed Mujda, a senior former foreign ministry diplomat during the Taliban regime, said in an exclusive interview that the "insurgents, mostly Taliban, are not fighting for power in Helmand or the rest of the provinces; they are fighting against foreigners…those who are coming from abroad or are already present in Helmand attack the government institutions because of Sharia" (Azadi Radio, March 13).

At the same time Hezb-e-Islami Afghanistan leader, Gulbuddin Hekmatyar, claimed he will "never negotiate with the foreign established government in Afghanistan" (Tolo TV, February 16). This is a very important statement by the once all-powerful Hekmatyar (a former Afghan prime minister), whose current influence is perhaps underestimated. While Hekmatyar's influence in Helmand does not exceed that of the Taliban, his statement is a clear sign to his followers in this region to engage in jihad against government forces in Helmand and other southwestern provinces. Moreover, despite having been militarily defeated by the Taliban in 1994, Hekmatyar is now cooperating with the neo-Taliban and al-Qaeda. This development, coupled with Hekmatyar's recent statement, is very bad news for the Kabul government.
The British in Helmand

According to a Kabul daily, "the bloodshed on Saturday [February 2] underscored the challenge facing thousands of British and Canadian troops in coming months as they gradually relieve American forces in southern Afghanistan, a hotbed of insurgency and the drug trade" (Outlook Afghanistan Daily, February 4).

The consensus in Afghanistan is that the surge in violence is directly linked to the new mission of the British-led NATO International Security Assistance Force in Helmand. This force will be dominated by the British 16th Air Assault Brigade. It seems likely that the insurgents, alongside al-Qaeda, will seek to test the resolve of the British troops early, hoping to inflict serious losses on their forces.

The treacherous nature of this desolate and lawless region, coupled with the complex factors driving the insurgency, make it unlikely that the British-led NATO force will be able to restore stability to Helmand in the foreseeable future. It is hoped, however, that the British military's reputation for skillful handling of insurgencies and the local populations that sustain it will reduce the grievances of the Pashtun Helmandis.

This article originally appeared in Terrorism Monitor, published by The Jamestown Foundation in Washington, DC., at (www.Jamestown.org). The Jamestown Foundation is an independent, nonpartisan organization supported by tax-deductible contributions from corporations, foundations, and individuals.
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