Afghanistan insurgency set to escalate
Karachi, 23 May (AKI) - (by Syed Saleem Shahzad) - The current insurgency in Afghanistan against the US-led coalition forces and the Afghan National Army is set to escalate as various militants groups gather together to join the battle. This is according to retired Lt. Gen. Hamid Gul, the former head of Pakistan's powerful intelligence services, ISI. In an interview with Adnkronos International (AKI), Gul also said that tensions between Afghanistan's neighbours and the US will bolster these insurgent movements.
"The present Afghan resistance shall escalate further and new elements, besides the Taliban and the Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan led by [wanted warlord] Gulbuddin Hekmatyar will join the resistance," said Gul, one of the most vocal critics inside Pakistan of president Pervez Musharraf, and director of the ISI from 1987 to 1989, at the height of the Afghan war with the Soviets.
Gul was the architect behind various operations by the Afghan resistance against the Soviet regime in that period and knows all the different Afghan factions very well.
"This is unique for Afghanistan that when fighting erupts, on one side various Afghan factions and parties fight under their flag all over Afghanistan while tribes fight in their specific regions," Gul maintained.
In southern Afghanistan, the Taliban-led resistance has recently pitched intense battles against the US-led coalition forces and Afghan National Army.
According to government officials, over 300 people have been killed this week during clashes between government forces and Taliban fighters. This latest upsurge in violence is the fiercest fighting against the Taliban since their hardline regime was removed from power in 2001.
The Afghan provinces of Helmand, Urgzan, Kandahar and Zabul are the centres for the Taliban militants while in Khost, Paktia, Gardez and Paktika, the Taliban’s Jalaluddin Haqqani along with local tribes are fighting against the American-led troops.
In Kunar and Nooristan, as well as Ghazni, both the Taliban and Hekmatyar’s Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan are active.
There are sporadic incidents of violence like bomb blasts and rockets being fired by unknown groups in Maidan Shahr (east of Kabul) in Takhar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Baghlan in northern Afghanistan. A similar situation is also seen in Farah and Niroze provinces in the west.
"There are known leaders and men in the north as well but very much in line with Afghan traditions, they change their groups and entities when they decide to take up arms," Gul told AKI.
Gul believes that the present insurgency shall further escalate as regional players are also annoyed with the US and the situation favours the Afghan insurgent movements.
"Russia is annoyed with the Americans, Iran is hostile to western interests and Pakistan is no long in a position to adhere to American directives any more," Gul maintained.
"The trade of raw opium has reached 2.4 billion US dollars and the trade of narco-drugs has reached up to 4 billion dollars. Where do all these drugs come from? How are they reaching the world market? Of course they are moving from Afghanistan via Russia," said Gul.
"Even if 10 percent of the trade has gone into arms purchases, it serves the purposes of [Afghan] insurgency," he said.
"What else can Russia do to support the anti-US resistance? Just turn a blind eye on the drug trade and it is doing so," Gul explained.
"Pakistan has also reached the saturation point where it is very difficult to follow any orders from the Americans," said Gul.
"There is a 1,250-kilometre-border running along the Line of Control [Pakistan's de-facto border with India]. There is American pressure to stop the infiltration [of militants from Pakistan into India] so Pakistan has to man the entire LoC.
"Then there is a 1,200- kilomtre-border along the coast and we have also deployed 80,000 men along the Durand Line [the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan]. The point of saturation has already come and Pakistan is no longer in a position to take any more stern steps against Taliban," Gul asserted.
"The present Afghan resistance shall escalate further and new elements, besides the Taliban and the Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan led by [wanted warlord] Gulbuddin Hekmatyar will join the resistance," said Gul, one of the most vocal critics inside Pakistan of president Pervez Musharraf, and director of the ISI from 1987 to 1989, at the height of the Afghan war with the Soviets.
Gul was the architect behind various operations by the Afghan resistance against the Soviet regime in that period and knows all the different Afghan factions very well.
"This is unique for Afghanistan that when fighting erupts, on one side various Afghan factions and parties fight under their flag all over Afghanistan while tribes fight in their specific regions," Gul maintained.
In southern Afghanistan, the Taliban-led resistance has recently pitched intense battles against the US-led coalition forces and Afghan National Army.
According to government officials, over 300 people have been killed this week during clashes between government forces and Taliban fighters. This latest upsurge in violence is the fiercest fighting against the Taliban since their hardline regime was removed from power in 2001.
The Afghan provinces of Helmand, Urgzan, Kandahar and Zabul are the centres for the Taliban militants while in Khost, Paktia, Gardez and Paktika, the Taliban’s Jalaluddin Haqqani along with local tribes are fighting against the American-led troops.
In Kunar and Nooristan, as well as Ghazni, both the Taliban and Hekmatyar’s Hizb-i-Islami Afghanistan are active.
There are sporadic incidents of violence like bomb blasts and rockets being fired by unknown groups in Maidan Shahr (east of Kabul) in Takhar, Mazar-i-Sharif and Baghlan in northern Afghanistan. A similar situation is also seen in Farah and Niroze provinces in the west.
"There are known leaders and men in the north as well but very much in line with Afghan traditions, they change their groups and entities when they decide to take up arms," Gul told AKI.
Gul believes that the present insurgency shall further escalate as regional players are also annoyed with the US and the situation favours the Afghan insurgent movements.
"Russia is annoyed with the Americans, Iran is hostile to western interests and Pakistan is no long in a position to adhere to American directives any more," Gul maintained.
"The trade of raw opium has reached 2.4 billion US dollars and the trade of narco-drugs has reached up to 4 billion dollars. Where do all these drugs come from? How are they reaching the world market? Of course they are moving from Afghanistan via Russia," said Gul.
"Even if 10 percent of the trade has gone into arms purchases, it serves the purposes of [Afghan] insurgency," he said.
"What else can Russia do to support the anti-US resistance? Just turn a blind eye on the drug trade and it is doing so," Gul explained.
"Pakistan has also reached the saturation point where it is very difficult to follow any orders from the Americans," said Gul.
"There is a 1,250-kilometre-border running along the Line of Control [Pakistan's de-facto border with India]. There is American pressure to stop the infiltration [of militants from Pakistan into India] so Pakistan has to man the entire LoC.
"Then there is a 1,200- kilomtre-border along the coast and we have also deployed 80,000 men along the Durand Line [the border between Pakistan and Afghanistan]. The point of saturation has already come and Pakistan is no longer in a position to take any more stern steps against Taliban," Gul asserted.
posted by Marko at 5/23/2006 08:34:00 AM
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