Rumsfeld exit lessens threat to nuclear sites, hardliners believe

Iranian hardliners are hailing the US Republican electoral defeat and Donald Rumsfeld's downfall as a symbolic victory that lessens the risk of American military strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities.

Sources close to the Islamic republic's theocratic leadership said yesterday that the replacement as US defence secretary of the hawkish Mr Rumsfeld by the more emollient Robert Gates improved the chances of direct talks between Tehran and Washington.

"This will be seen as a sign of two things," said a recently retired senior Iranian diplomat with close ties to the regime. "First, it signals the decline in legitimacy of the policies of President Bush and his fellow hardliner [Mr Rumsfeld] in the Middle East, including on Iran's nuclear programme. Second, Rumsfeld's departure signals the diminishing in power of those believing in military solutions compared with those favouring diplomacy."

Sadegh Zibakalam, a political scientist at Tehran University, said: "With Rumsfeld gone, the possibility of selected strikes on Iran's nuclear facilities is even more remote than before."

Mr Gates was lauded as favouring negotiations with Iran by the influential Aftab website, which is attached to Hasan Rowhani, Iran's former chief nuclear negotiator, who has close official links with the country's supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. The website noted with approval Mr Gates's affiliation with James Baker, the former US secretary of state and head of the recently convened Iraq Study Group, who has also voiced support for such contact.

However, talks are more likely to centre on Iraq than on Iran's nuclear programme, which the Bush administration and many others in the west fear is designed to build an atomic bomb. Iranian officials disclosed this week that they are considering a renewed US request for meetings on Iraq, where Iran has strong influence with leaders of the majority Shia population. While that now seems likelier, a breakthrough on the nuclear impasse is as distant as ever, analysts say.

"I don't believe Democrats view the prospect of Iran with nuclear technology as any less of a threat than Republicans do," said Saeed Leylaz, a Tehran-based political analyst. "It may be that the means used by Washington to try and convince Iran to suspend uranium enrichment will be more varied, but other than that I don't believe we are any freer from American pressure, and I don't foresee a strategic change in the relationship."

The Guardian