Mideast ‘arms race’ fears as Israel ups Iran pressure
Israel is turning up the heat over Iran’s nuclear progamme as European-led negotiations languish and the region goes down the path of an arms race reminiscent of the cold war.
While some analysts in Washington see Israel’s efforts as aimed at putting more backbone into the US administration’s diplomatic approach, others see an increased chance of Israeli military action.
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, who is in Oslo to receive the Nobel peace prize, warned yesterday that a “military solution would be completely counterproductive”. The next months would be crucial, he said.
Analysts say the more evident Israeli pressure – due in part to the dynamics of domestic electioneering – is driven by worries that the US is going soft on Iran and that negotiations are dragging on. This concern is focused on the EU-backed “Russian proposal”, which would allow Iran to develop the initial stages of the fuel cycle and then have Russia complete the enrichment of uranium for the civilian reactor it is building on Iran’s southern coast.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful Washington lobby group, has decried the US embrace of this proposal as a “disturbing shift” in policy. “Israel is very concerned that a form of defeatism has taken over the White House,” said Trita Parsi, a Middle East specialist at Johns Hopkins University.
Each time the US signals possible compromises with Iran, Israel raises its threat level to bring the US back in line, he said.
European diplomats say Israel’s threats are aimed at shaping the Russian “pro-posal”, which is a set of ideas rather than a specific plan on paper. They also believe the US support was directed at getting President Vladimir Putin on side, calculating that Iran would reject the plan anyway.
Iran denies its civilian nuclear programme is a cover for developing a bomb. Tehran has not rejected the Russian ideas outright, but the EU3 – Britain, France and Germany – have not agreed on terms for continuing negotiations.
Cliff Kupchan, analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, is less sanguine about the prospect of a diplomatic solution. “I would not rule out an American or Israeli strike,” he said.
US Vice-President Dick Cheney raised the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli strike last January, saying they “might well decide to act first, and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards”. A former senior US official said the danger of a US strike existed six months ago, but the US position had since shifted to long-term containment.
Russia last week confirmed the sale to Iran of about $1bn of mobile, surface-to-air TOR-M1 missiles and other hardware. On the same day Israel announced a successful test of its Arrow defence system, which intercepted a missile simulating an Iranian long-range Shahab-3.
Israel is also reported to be building up the long-range capability of its air force. Experts say Israel’s intention to increase its fleet of German-built Dolphin submarines is aimed at establishing a “second-strike” nuclear capability.
“The trend is definitely moving towards a cold war in the Middle East between the two most powerful nations in the region,” commented Mr Parsi.
Last week Dan Halutz, Israeli military chief of staff, was asked how far Israel was ready to go to stop Iran. “Two thousand kilometers,” he replied.
While some analysts in Washington see Israel’s efforts as aimed at putting more backbone into the US administration’s diplomatic approach, others see an increased chance of Israeli military action.
Mohamed ElBaradei, head of the UN nuclear watchdog, who is in Oslo to receive the Nobel peace prize, warned yesterday that a “military solution would be completely counterproductive”. The next months would be crucial, he said.
Analysts say the more evident Israeli pressure – due in part to the dynamics of domestic electioneering – is driven by worries that the US is going soft on Iran and that negotiations are dragging on. This concern is focused on the EU-backed “Russian proposal”, which would allow Iran to develop the initial stages of the fuel cycle and then have Russia complete the enrichment of uranium for the civilian reactor it is building on Iran’s southern coast.
The American Israel Public Affairs Committee, a powerful Washington lobby group, has decried the US embrace of this proposal as a “disturbing shift” in policy. “Israel is very concerned that a form of defeatism has taken over the White House,” said Trita Parsi, a Middle East specialist at Johns Hopkins University.
Each time the US signals possible compromises with Iran, Israel raises its threat level to bring the US back in line, he said.
European diplomats say Israel’s threats are aimed at shaping the Russian “pro-posal”, which is a set of ideas rather than a specific plan on paper. They also believe the US support was directed at getting President Vladimir Putin on side, calculating that Iran would reject the plan anyway.
Iran denies its civilian nuclear programme is a cover for developing a bomb. Tehran has not rejected the Russian ideas outright, but the EU3 – Britain, France and Germany – have not agreed on terms for continuing negotiations.
Cliff Kupchan, analyst with the Eurasia Group consultancy, is less sanguine about the prospect of a diplomatic solution. “I would not rule out an American or Israeli strike,” he said.
US Vice-President Dick Cheney raised the possibility of a pre-emptive Israeli strike last January, saying they “might well decide to act first, and let the rest of the world worry about cleaning up the diplomatic mess afterwards”. A former senior US official said the danger of a US strike existed six months ago, but the US position had since shifted to long-term containment.
Russia last week confirmed the sale to Iran of about $1bn of mobile, surface-to-air TOR-M1 missiles and other hardware. On the same day Israel announced a successful test of its Arrow defence system, which intercepted a missile simulating an Iranian long-range Shahab-3.
Israel is also reported to be building up the long-range capability of its air force. Experts say Israel’s intention to increase its fleet of German-built Dolphin submarines is aimed at establishing a “second-strike” nuclear capability.
“The trend is definitely moving towards a cold war in the Middle East between the two most powerful nations in the region,” commented Mr Parsi.
Last week Dan Halutz, Israeli military chief of staff, was asked how far Israel was ready to go to stop Iran. “Two thousand kilometers,” he replied.
posted by Marko at 12/09/2005 09:31:00 PM
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