PRESSURE ON SYRIA
The next shove into democracy?
Harold's List
The Chicago Tribune
By Scott MacMillan
As the United Nations puts Syria back in the hot seat, pay close attention to what American leaders say on the subject of democracy in Syria. The administration has made far-reaching demands of Damascus, but until recently, it had stopped short of suggesting Syria become the Arab world's latest experiment in democracy.
Last month, President Bush demanded for the first time that Syria "stop exporting violence and start importing democracy." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice then spoke of "the Syrian people's aspirations for liberty, democracy and justice under the rule of law." These are subtle but significant shifts in the way Washington talks about Damascus: It seems we might want a democratic Syria after all.
Last week, UN special investigator Detlev Mehlis delivered his final report implicating high-level Damascus officials in the February assassination of former Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri. The same day, another anti-Syria voice in Lebanon, writer and editor Gibran Tueni, was killed by a car bomb.
The nuances of American rhetoric resonate powerfully on Syria's streets. I spent two weeks there in October, after the release of Mehlis' interim report. In conversations, it was clear that few Syrians, including those who opposed the regime and looked up to America, saw Bush as their liberator.
Make no mistake: Syrians are in denial about their government's likely role in the Hariri assassination. When the subject comes up, they respond almost reflexively: "The UN report is politically motivated. It is only an excuse to interfere in Syria's internal affairs."
Scratch beneath the surface and people will start to tell you what they really think. Many will speak disdainfully of Bashar Assad's dictatorship, and some will freely admit that government officials are probably guilty of the Hariri assassination. Eager for a sound bite, Western reporters often fail to get past the standard response.
I met a local business executive who initially gushed about the Syrian president. He spoke of Assad as reformer of a system mired in corrupt socialism and railed against American neoconservatives. After the better part of an hour, I pressed him on whether Assad's reforms would lead to free elections. He conceded that only outside pressure would push the government toward democracy.
`No loyalties, just Syria'
Later, I received an unexpected invitation to a demonstration by students at Damascus University. I had read many reports of angry demonstrations of Syrians defending their government against a perceived American smear campaign. Yet what I found surprised me: This was a pro-Syria demonstration, yet explicitly not a pro-regime one.
Nobody waved pictures of Assad, itself notable in a country where the president's portrait is ubiquitous. The national flag was the only emblem on display. "No loyalties, no slogans," one student told me. "Just Syria."
After much small talk, people began to speak openly.
"I think people in the government are probably guilty of the Hariri murder," said one young protester. "The biggest crimes of our government have been committed against the Syrian people. So why does America want to punish the people of Syria, rather than the government?"
The Assad gang has succeeded in making U.S. "interference" the main topic of conversation. The twist, of course, is that it was Syria's meddling in Lebanon that set off the current crisis. In coming months, U.S. leaders must refocus Syrians' attention on the Assad regime's thuggish rule.
The "realists" will point out that our beef with Damascus has nothing to do with democracy: The U.S. wants the Syrian government to stop allowing insurgents to cross the eastern border into Iraq, to end its support for Hezbollah and Palestinian militant groups and to quit interfering in Lebanese affairs.
In fact, these demands are unlikely to be met until democratic change comes to Damascus. Assad will not "do a Qaddafi"--the words of Syria expert Joshua Landis, who blogs at SyriaComment.com--and suddenly become the kind of dictator America likes, namely, Libya's Moammar Gadhafi.
Political opposition weak
Many will argue that the reluctance to push for a democratic revolution in Syria is an exercise in pragmatism. Right now there appears to be no viable alternative to Assad's dictatorship: Even opposition figures, such as the former political prisoner Riad al-Turk, admit that Syria's weakened and fragmented opposition is in no place to topple the regime via Kiev- and Beirut-style mass demonstrations.
It would be wise to read the words of another former political prisoner: In his 1978 essay, "The Power of the Powerless," Vaclav Havel, then a dissident Czech playwright, wrote of the totalitarian regime in which "all genuine problems and matters of critical importance are hidden beneath a thick crust of lies."
When that crust is broken in a single place, "the whole crust seems then to be made of a tissue on the point of tearing and disintegrating uncontrollably."
Right now, the weakest point in the Assad gang's crust of lies is its involvement in the Hariri assassination. If the worst of the accusations is shown to be true, Assad will appear as a liar before his own people.
If this happens, the crust will start to break and anger in Syria will turn away from the U.S. and toward the regime itself.
The Chicago Tribune
By Scott MacMillan
As the United Nations puts Syria back in the hot seat, pay close attention to what American leaders say on the subject of democracy in Syria. The administration has made far-reaching demands of Damascus, but until recently, it had stopped short of suggesting Syria become the Arab world's latest experiment in democracy.
Last month, President Bush demanded for the first time that Syria "stop exporting violence and start importing democracy." Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice then spoke of "the Syrian people's aspirations for liberty, democracy and justice under the rule of law." These are subtle but significant shifts in the way Washington talks about Damascus: It seems we might want a democratic Syria after all.
Last week, UN special investigator Detlev Mehlis delivered his final report implicating high-level Damascus officials in the February assassination of former Lebanese leader Rafik Hariri. The same day, another anti-Syria voice in Lebanon, writer and editor Gibran Tueni, was killed by a car bomb.
The nuances of American rhetoric resonate powerfully on Syria's streets. I spent two weeks there in October, after the release of Mehlis' interim report. In conversations, it was clear that few Syrians, including those who opposed the regime and looked up to America, saw Bush as their liberator.
Make no mistake: Syrians are in denial about their government's likely role in the Hariri assassination. When the subject comes up, they respond almost reflexively: "The UN report is politically motivated. It is only an excuse to interfere in Syria's internal affairs."
Scratch beneath the surface and people will start to tell you what they really think. Many will speak disdainfully of Bashar Assad's dictatorship, and some will freely admit that government officials are probably guilty of the Hariri assassination. Eager for a sound bite, Western reporters often fail to get past the standard response.
I met a local business executive who initially gushed about the Syrian president. He spoke of Assad as reformer of a system mired in corrupt socialism and railed against American neoconservatives. After the better part of an hour, I pressed him on whether Assad's reforms would lead to free elections. He conceded that only outside pressure would push the government toward democracy.
`No loyalties, just Syria'
Later, I received an unexpected invitation to a demonstration by students at Damascus University. I had read many reports of angry demonstrations of Syrians defending their government against a perceived American smear campaign. Yet what I found surprised me: This was a pro-Syria demonstration, yet explicitly not a pro-regime one.
Nobody waved pictures of Assad, itself notable in a country where the president's portrait is ubiquitous. The national flag was the only emblem on display. "No loyalties, no slogans," one student told me. "Just Syria."
After much small talk, people began to speak openly.
"I think people in the government are probably guilty of the Hariri murder," said one young protester. "The biggest crimes of our government have been committed against the Syrian people. So why does America want to punish the people of Syria, rather than the government?"
The Assad gang has succeeded in making U.S. "interference" the main topic of conversation. The twist, of course, is that it was Syria's meddling in Lebanon that set off the current crisis. In coming months, U.S. leaders must refocus Syrians' attention on the Assad regime's thuggish rule.
The "realists" will point out that our beef with Damascus has nothing to do with democracy: The U.S. wants the Syrian government to stop allowing insurgents to cross the eastern border into Iraq, to end its support for Hezbollah and Palestinian militant groups and to quit interfering in Lebanese affairs.
In fact, these demands are unlikely to be met until democratic change comes to Damascus. Assad will not "do a Qaddafi"--the words of Syria expert Joshua Landis, who blogs at SyriaComment.com--and suddenly become the kind of dictator America likes, namely, Libya's Moammar Gadhafi.
Political opposition weak
Many will argue that the reluctance to push for a democratic revolution in Syria is an exercise in pragmatism. Right now there appears to be no viable alternative to Assad's dictatorship: Even opposition figures, such as the former political prisoner Riad al-Turk, admit that Syria's weakened and fragmented opposition is in no place to topple the regime via Kiev- and Beirut-style mass demonstrations.
It would be wise to read the words of another former political prisoner: In his 1978 essay, "The Power of the Powerless," Vaclav Havel, then a dissident Czech playwright, wrote of the totalitarian regime in which "all genuine problems and matters of critical importance are hidden beneath a thick crust of lies."
When that crust is broken in a single place, "the whole crust seems then to be made of a tissue on the point of tearing and disintegrating uncontrollably."
Right now, the weakest point in the Assad gang's crust of lies is its involvement in the Hariri assassination. If the worst of the accusations is shown to be true, Assad will appear as a liar before his own people.
If this happens, the crust will start to break and anger in Syria will turn away from the U.S. and toward the regime itself.
posted by Marko at 12/18/2005 10:04:00 PM
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