Radical left candidate gains in Peru
Lt Col Ollanta Humala, a retired army officer with a nationalist, anti-globalisation message, has leapt into second place in Peru’s presidential polls scheduled for April 2006. This is forcing the other candidates to react and adjust their campaign platforms to include more socially oriented policies. Given the fragmentation of the electoral field, Mr Humala’s recent ascent also raises the prospect that he might make it into a runoff, further changing the dynamics of the race.
Mr Humala, who intends to run under the banner of the centre-left Unión por el Perú (UPP), obtained 15% of voter preferences in a late November nationwide poll conducted by CPI, a local pollster. This puts him second behind Lourdes Flores, a moderate conservative who scored 25.6%, and ahead of former centre-left President Alan García (1985-90) with 13.4% and former interim President Valentín Paniagua (2000-01), a centrist, with 11.3%
The retired officer obtained just 2.8% a month earlier in a poll by the same firm. (In an Apoyo poll a few weeks earlier, Mr Humala obtained 11%.) His spectacular rise in such a brief period of time has sounded a warning to other candidates who recall how political outsiders such former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) and current President Alejandro Toledo captured the sympathy of Peruvian voters in previous elections (Mr Fujimori in 1990 and Mr Toledo in 2001).
Rising left
A radical who led a short-lived rebellion against Mr Fujimori’s government in October 2000, Mr Humala appears to hold appeal for a large mass of Peruvians who have not felt the benefits of the strong economic growth registered in the last several years.
He has also struck a chord with the electorate due to his strong criticism of so-called traditional politicians, including Ms Flores (Unidad Nacional), Mr García (Partido Aprista Peruano) and Mr Paniagua (Frente del Centro) as well as legislators in the badly discredited Congress. “What Humala has done is to remind the other candidates what the Peruvian electorate is looking for,” says political commentator Mirko Lauer.
The rise of Mr Humala is linked in part to last month’s arrest of Mr Fujimori in Chile. The disgraced former president, who had been in exile in Japan since late 2000, had insisted he would return to stand for president despite 22 cases against him on charges ranging from illegal enrichment to crimes against humanity. An extradition process under way makes it unlikely that Mr Fujimori will be back in Peru free and as a candidate.
On the defensive?
Mr García has reacted to Mr Humala’s appeal by returning to more left-oriented positions traditionally taken by his Apra party. Over the last year, Mr García had sought to communicate a more moderate message, especially with businessmen, in a bid to recover credibility with the electorate. Mr García’s economic policies during his 1985-1990 term were a disaster for the country and isolated Peru in international financial markets.
During a rally to formally launch his candidacy on December 2nd, Mr García focused on proposals that would appeal to Peru’s lower-income and rural voters. These include cutting salaries of congressmen and ministers by half; collecting debts owed by businesses to the state from past privatisations; ending labour abuses by outsourcing companies; and promoting agro-export activities in the poverty-stricken Andean highlands. He would also create a state-run agricultural bank.
Ms Flores has also fine-tuned her message. In a presentation at an annual conference of business executives on December 3rd,she emphasised the social content of her programme, such as providing universal health coverage to poor Peruvians, eliminating lines at public hospitals and promoting an overall policy to eliminate poverty and exclusion.
Radical economic message
Mr Humala’s more radical platform, meanwhile, is sending shivers through Peru’s local and foreign sector. He has proposed giving preference to national over foreign investment; resurrecting the state’s involvement in “strategic” industries like oil, gas, ports and airports; and writing a new constitution. He also opposes a free-trade agreement being currently being negotiated with the US.
Mr Humala’s ascent is particularly worrisome—both to Peru’s business class and no doubt to Washington—because it comes as other leftist politicians are gaining ground in Latin America. Another radical nationalist, Evo Morales, leads the race for the December 19th presidential elections in neighbouring Bolivia. And Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, a man with a similar military background and ideology to that of Mr Humala, has just gained near-full control of his country’s legislature in December 4th mid-term elections.
Mr Humala denies having met or received campaign funds from Mr Chávez, although Mr Chávez’s party has invited him to visit Caracas. He may see himself as having more in common with Mr Morales.
Indeed, like Mr the Bolivian leader, Mr Humala has proposed legalising coca, the raw material used to produce cocaine but that has traditional uses among Andean indigenous groups. He has also pledged to review oil-and-gas contracts that he says “damage the national interests”, particularly the one for the huge Camisea natural-gas project. New laws in both Venezuela and Bolivia mandate similar contract re-negotiations in the oil-and-gas sector.
Mr Humala’s strongest appeal among voters is in Peru’s southern region–in Arequipa, Cusco and Puno near the Bolivian border, areas with large indigenous populations. A victory by Mr Morales could boost Mr Humala’s standing, particularly among undecided voters.
Uncertain outlook
It is still possible that Mr Humala’s rise could be contained and that Mr García could recover some support, putting him back into second place, as suggested by the large turnout at his recent rally. Mr Humala could also be damaged by the actions of his brother Antauro, a leader of the Movimiento Etno-Cacerista, who staged a high-profile attack on a police station in southern Peru on New Year’s Day 2005 in which three policemen died. His trial is due to begin in Lima in the coming weeks.
Even if Ms Flores holds on to her lead, the outcome of the election will remain highly uncertain. Given a highly fragmented vote, a runoff vote can be expected. If Mr Humala makes it into a second round, the parties that are shut out are likely to unite against him. If Ms Flores runs against another rival, the result would be more difficult to predict.
Whoever ultimately wins the election, the government could have a weak position in Congress. This, combined with the public’s lack of faith in political institutions and Peru’s chronic high unemployment and poverty will continue to create the conditions for the type of localised and periodic unrest that has plagued the Toledo administration.
On the policy front, most political parties have taken a centrist position until now. But Mr Humala’s recent strength could continue to push the candidates leftward as election day nears. This might also force the eventual winner, if it is not Mr Humala, to adopt more nationalist policies than he might otherwise have liked. And if Mr Humala were to win, an outcome that cannot be completely ruled out, there could be a radical change in Peru’s economic management.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Latin America
Mr Humala, who intends to run under the banner of the centre-left Unión por el Perú (UPP), obtained 15% of voter preferences in a late November nationwide poll conducted by CPI, a local pollster. This puts him second behind Lourdes Flores, a moderate conservative who scored 25.6%, and ahead of former centre-left President Alan García (1985-90) with 13.4% and former interim President Valentín Paniagua (2000-01), a centrist, with 11.3%
The retired officer obtained just 2.8% a month earlier in a poll by the same firm. (In an Apoyo poll a few weeks earlier, Mr Humala obtained 11%.) His spectacular rise in such a brief period of time has sounded a warning to other candidates who recall how political outsiders such former President Alberto Fujimori (1990-2000) and current President Alejandro Toledo captured the sympathy of Peruvian voters in previous elections (Mr Fujimori in 1990 and Mr Toledo in 2001).
Rising left
A radical who led a short-lived rebellion against Mr Fujimori’s government in October 2000, Mr Humala appears to hold appeal for a large mass of Peruvians who have not felt the benefits of the strong economic growth registered in the last several years.
He has also struck a chord with the electorate due to his strong criticism of so-called traditional politicians, including Ms Flores (Unidad Nacional), Mr García (Partido Aprista Peruano) and Mr Paniagua (Frente del Centro) as well as legislators in the badly discredited Congress. “What Humala has done is to remind the other candidates what the Peruvian electorate is looking for,” says political commentator Mirko Lauer.
The rise of Mr Humala is linked in part to last month’s arrest of Mr Fujimori in Chile. The disgraced former president, who had been in exile in Japan since late 2000, had insisted he would return to stand for president despite 22 cases against him on charges ranging from illegal enrichment to crimes against humanity. An extradition process under way makes it unlikely that Mr Fujimori will be back in Peru free and as a candidate.
On the defensive?
Mr García has reacted to Mr Humala’s appeal by returning to more left-oriented positions traditionally taken by his Apra party. Over the last year, Mr García had sought to communicate a more moderate message, especially with businessmen, in a bid to recover credibility with the electorate. Mr García’s economic policies during his 1985-1990 term were a disaster for the country and isolated Peru in international financial markets.
During a rally to formally launch his candidacy on December 2nd, Mr García focused on proposals that would appeal to Peru’s lower-income and rural voters. These include cutting salaries of congressmen and ministers by half; collecting debts owed by businesses to the state from past privatisations; ending labour abuses by outsourcing companies; and promoting agro-export activities in the poverty-stricken Andean highlands. He would also create a state-run agricultural bank.
Ms Flores has also fine-tuned her message. In a presentation at an annual conference of business executives on December 3rd,she emphasised the social content of her programme, such as providing universal health coverage to poor Peruvians, eliminating lines at public hospitals and promoting an overall policy to eliminate poverty and exclusion.
Radical economic message
Mr Humala’s more radical platform, meanwhile, is sending shivers through Peru’s local and foreign sector. He has proposed giving preference to national over foreign investment; resurrecting the state’s involvement in “strategic” industries like oil, gas, ports and airports; and writing a new constitution. He also opposes a free-trade agreement being currently being negotiated with the US.
Mr Humala’s ascent is particularly worrisome—both to Peru’s business class and no doubt to Washington—because it comes as other leftist politicians are gaining ground in Latin America. Another radical nationalist, Evo Morales, leads the race for the December 19th presidential elections in neighbouring Bolivia. And Venezuela’s president, Hugo Chávez, a man with a similar military background and ideology to that of Mr Humala, has just gained near-full control of his country’s legislature in December 4th mid-term elections.
Mr Humala denies having met or received campaign funds from Mr Chávez, although Mr Chávez’s party has invited him to visit Caracas. He may see himself as having more in common with Mr Morales.
Indeed, like Mr the Bolivian leader, Mr Humala has proposed legalising coca, the raw material used to produce cocaine but that has traditional uses among Andean indigenous groups. He has also pledged to review oil-and-gas contracts that he says “damage the national interests”, particularly the one for the huge Camisea natural-gas project. New laws in both Venezuela and Bolivia mandate similar contract re-negotiations in the oil-and-gas sector.
Mr Humala’s strongest appeal among voters is in Peru’s southern region–in Arequipa, Cusco and Puno near the Bolivian border, areas with large indigenous populations. A victory by Mr Morales could boost Mr Humala’s standing, particularly among undecided voters.
Uncertain outlook
It is still possible that Mr Humala’s rise could be contained and that Mr García could recover some support, putting him back into second place, as suggested by the large turnout at his recent rally. Mr Humala could also be damaged by the actions of his brother Antauro, a leader of the Movimiento Etno-Cacerista, who staged a high-profile attack on a police station in southern Peru on New Year’s Day 2005 in which three policemen died. His trial is due to begin in Lima in the coming weeks.
Even if Ms Flores holds on to her lead, the outcome of the election will remain highly uncertain. Given a highly fragmented vote, a runoff vote can be expected. If Mr Humala makes it into a second round, the parties that are shut out are likely to unite against him. If Ms Flores runs against another rival, the result would be more difficult to predict.
Whoever ultimately wins the election, the government could have a weak position in Congress. This, combined with the public’s lack of faith in political institutions and Peru’s chronic high unemployment and poverty will continue to create the conditions for the type of localised and periodic unrest that has plagued the Toledo administration.
On the policy front, most political parties have taken a centrist position until now. But Mr Humala’s recent strength could continue to push the candidates leftward as election day nears. This might also force the eventual winner, if it is not Mr Humala, to adopt more nationalist policies than he might otherwise have liked. And if Mr Humala were to win, an outcome that cannot be completely ruled out, there could be a radical change in Peru’s economic management.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Latin America
posted by Marko at 12/07/2005 11:34:00 AM
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