Canada Election 2006: Five Lingering Questions
(Angus Reid Global Scan)- With just over two weeks to go, the colour of the next government remains unclear.
As Canada heads to next week’s second and final round of televised debates, the federal election campaign has become eerily similar to the 2004 edition. The opposition Conservative party appeared in first place in the last five national polls that have been released. The Liberals are hoping for a late surge that would allow Paul Martin to head a new minority government.
Has the race really swung in Ontario?
In three of the last five polls, the Liberals are holding on to the lead in the province that elects 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons. The SES Research tracking poll has the top parties separated by a single point, while Ipsos-Reid puts the Tories in first place. The fact that the Ontario samples are smaller than the national samples makes the race too volatile to predict, as most of the leads fall well within the margin of error. The Tories require at least a 15-seat swing in the province to make a minority government plausible. That will be one of the key statistics to look for on election night.
Who benefits from the Bloc’s drop in Quebec?
In four of the last five polls, support for the Bloc Québécois has fallen to 44 per cent or 45 per cent in Quebec, after clearing the 50 per cent mark for most of the campaign. Still, this might not be enough to bring seats to a prospective Harper administration. In fact, the drop might actually denote a split in the federalist vote—something that could actually help Gilles Duceppe. Nationally, the Bloc is sitting somewhere between 10 and 13 per cent, similar to the 12.4 per cent the party received in 2004. That was enough for 54 of the province’s 75 seats.
Will "strategic voting" hurt the NDP again?
National support for Jack Layton’s New Democrats has remained somewhat stable throughout the campaign, with the exception of a tracking survey in which the party actually trailed the Bloc. The last five polls give the NDP between 17 per cent and 18 per cent of the national vote—almost two points higher than their total in 2004. The latest Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe and Mail polls show that close to 60 per cent of respondents feel it is time for a change in government. This could suggest that the so-called "Tory fear" that took some votes away from the NDP and into the Liberal box in the last election might not become a factor this time around.
Will British Columbia really decide the election?
The voting intention surveys released by Leger Marketing, Ekos Research Associates and Ipsos-Reid all put the Conservatives ahead in BC, with anywhere from 35 per cent to 42 per cent of the vote. The Strategic Counsel suggests a much tighter race, with the NDP, Conservatives and Liberals separated by three percentage points. In 2004, the Tories got 36.3 per cent of the vote in BC, and elected 22 of the province’s 36 lawmakers. The numbers might suggest a similar scenario this year, but there are other factors to take into account, such as the retirement of Gurmant Grewal and John Reynolds, and the seat won the last time around by the late Chuck Cadman. The metropolitan ridings will see tight three-party races, while rural constituencies will pit the Conservatives against the NDP. We could be in for a long night.
Will the Greens win a seat?
National support for the Green party has been as high as six per cent, even after recent controversies. Still, there is no clear data to suggest that this will actually turn into a victory in a specific riding. The party is expected to clear the five per cent threshold on election night. Even if a Green candidate reaches the House of Commons for the first time, the party will continue to campaign for a proportional representation system.
As Canada heads to next week’s second and final round of televised debates, the federal election campaign has become eerily similar to the 2004 edition. The opposition Conservative party appeared in first place in the last five national polls that have been released. The Liberals are hoping for a late surge that would allow Paul Martin to head a new minority government.
Has the race really swung in Ontario?
In three of the last five polls, the Liberals are holding on to the lead in the province that elects 106 members to the 308-seat House of Commons. The SES Research tracking poll has the top parties separated by a single point, while Ipsos-Reid puts the Tories in first place. The fact that the Ontario samples are smaller than the national samples makes the race too volatile to predict, as most of the leads fall well within the margin of error. The Tories require at least a 15-seat swing in the province to make a minority government plausible. That will be one of the key statistics to look for on election night.
Who benefits from the Bloc’s drop in Quebec?
In four of the last five polls, support for the Bloc Québécois has fallen to 44 per cent or 45 per cent in Quebec, after clearing the 50 per cent mark for most of the campaign. Still, this might not be enough to bring seats to a prospective Harper administration. In fact, the drop might actually denote a split in the federalist vote—something that could actually help Gilles Duceppe. Nationally, the Bloc is sitting somewhere between 10 and 13 per cent, similar to the 12.4 per cent the party received in 2004. That was enough for 54 of the province’s 75 seats.
Will "strategic voting" hurt the NDP again?
National support for Jack Layton’s New Democrats has remained somewhat stable throughout the campaign, with the exception of a tracking survey in which the party actually trailed the Bloc. The last five polls give the NDP between 17 per cent and 18 per cent of the national vote—almost two points higher than their total in 2004. The latest Strategic Counsel/CTV/Globe and Mail polls show that close to 60 per cent of respondents feel it is time for a change in government. This could suggest that the so-called "Tory fear" that took some votes away from the NDP and into the Liberal box in the last election might not become a factor this time around.
Will British Columbia really decide the election?
The voting intention surveys released by Leger Marketing, Ekos Research Associates and Ipsos-Reid all put the Conservatives ahead in BC, with anywhere from 35 per cent to 42 per cent of the vote. The Strategic Counsel suggests a much tighter race, with the NDP, Conservatives and Liberals separated by three percentage points. In 2004, the Tories got 36.3 per cent of the vote in BC, and elected 22 of the province’s 36 lawmakers. The numbers might suggest a similar scenario this year, but there are other factors to take into account, such as the retirement of Gurmant Grewal and John Reynolds, and the seat won the last time around by the late Chuck Cadman. The metropolitan ridings will see tight three-party races, while rural constituencies will pit the Conservatives against the NDP. We could be in for a long night.
Will the Greens win a seat?
National support for the Green party has been as high as six per cent, even after recent controversies. Still, there is no clear data to suggest that this will actually turn into a victory in a specific riding. The party is expected to clear the five per cent threshold on election night. Even if a Green candidate reaches the House of Commons for the first time, the party will continue to campaign for a proportional representation system.
posted by Marko at 1/08/2006 02:51:00 AM
<< Home