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Tuesday, January 10, 2006

Piracy-Come-Terrorism

Korea Times: Asian pirates are making names for themselves menacing the high seas, and mocking Southeast Asian countries’ capacity for jointly policing international shipping.

What has been most feared since 9-11, however, is that piracy could transform into terrorism of apocalyptic proportions. If it ever does, the Malacca Straits would be a prime target.

The littoral states of Singapore, Malaysia and Indonesia have shown publicly they recognize the need to improve the safety of the narrow waterway that carries about a third of world trade, and almost all the oil imports destined for South Korea, Japan and China.

The foreign ministers of the three countries around the Straits met last year August to discuss maritime safety and security. They launched a new, official plan in 2004 to stem piracy and, more importantly, to allay international anxiety over both the safety of shipping and a piracy-terrorist nexus.

Forget the South Korean stock market ``discount’’ or prickly Pyongyang apparatchiks; Korea’s fragile economy would go into a tailspin if shipping through the Malacca Straits were disrupted by a major terrorist attack.

The International Maritime Bureau (IMB), an arm of the International Chamber of Commerce, set up to help protect international shipping has been accused of over-reporting the amount of piracy in the region.

The IMB in its recent report on piracy from January to June 2005 said there were 127 incidents, a 30 percent decrease from the previous year. Incidents occurring in Indonesian waters, however, make up about a third of piracy worldwide.

Somalia, which is a de facto ‘’failed state,’’ has become a new hot spot and four brazen incidents were reported in Iraq near Basra (piracy in Iraq marks just another example of the utter lawlessness resulting from U.S. occupation of the country).

Piracy worldwide has declined from 445 incidents in 2003 to 325 in 2004, and from 121 to 93 in Indonesia over the same period. That’s great, but attacks have become more sophisticated, and involve larger cargos, and hostage taking by the pirates is on an up tick.

Indonesia’s defense capacity is spread too thin to handle pirates, too. The government is trying to quell separatist movements in Aceh and maintain stability elsewhere across the sprawling archipelago.

Lloyd's Market Association’s Joint War Committee declared the Malacca Straits an area that is in jeopardy of terrorism and other perils. The decision to add the Straits of Malacca to the Committee’s list of high-risk areas was taken on the recommendation of Aegis Defense Services, which carried out risk assessments on the area.

Everyone brings up the name Jemaah Islamiyah’s (JI) when talking about the possibility of a terrorist attack, saying the group could be networking with criminal gangs.

Indonesia and Malaysia, however, are putting on a brave face, as they are concerned their national sovereignty would be violated by big nations like the U.S. in the name of securing international shipping.

Singapore is the troika’s third wheel on the issue of piracy, because it is on the verge of a far-reaching defense agreement with the U.S. and supports the U.S. war in Iraq. Malaysia’s Defense Minister Najib Razak, believes U.S. counter-terrorism forces in the region would fuel Islamic fanaticism.

Singapore has said it will call on the U.S. for help, if the situation does not improve in the shared waterway. The idea of willful U.S. war ships cruising the waterway unnerves the Malaysian and Indonesian militaries.

They might have to despite sovereignty concerns. The threat posed by international terrorism hangs over the region’s economic growth like a bad dream. Despite some arrests, Indonesia’s JI continues to expand its network and the group is certain to strike again. The suicide bombing at the Australian Embassy in Jakarta on September 9, 2004, which killed some 11 people and injured more than 180, is certainly proof of this.

The U.S. has warned Indonesian security forces of JI plans for attacks in the Straits and against naval vessels in the region, heightening the threat level. The warnings, issued in September 2004, stated that activists from JI had been discussing plans to seize a vessel with the assistance of local pirates.

The Bali suicide attack that killed around 200 people, including 88 Australians, on October 12, 2002 was attributed to JI. If there is a possibility the group is planning such an attack in the Malacca Straits, it must be taken seriously.

Although there is little evidence that organized criminal groups are involved in terrorist activities of the sort that concerns the international community, the success with which these criminals seize cargo vessels in Southeast Asia means the same criminals could carry out a terrorist act with relative ease in the same areas, using the same tactics.

Southern Thailand’s border with Malaysia has long been rife with crime and piracy, and now a growing insurgency. Smuggling is rampant in the vast maritime expanse around the Straits of Malacca. Add to this, Islamic terrorists in Malaysia or Indonesia and such groups as al-Qaeda or Jemaah Islamiah, sovereignty concerns seem petty.

It is clear from the militant groups operating in the region that they are interested in attacking maritime targets.

Will the countries in the region wait to see if they have the capability to conduct a spectacular attack on shipping in the Straits?

It is a matter of time before pirates become terrorists. Pirate attacks demonstrate the vulnerability of vessels transiting the Straits. They regularly hijack tankers; stealing cargo or kidnapping crew. They are becoming more sophisticated at what they do. Terrorists will surely one day take over a tanker carrying highly hazardous chemical cargo, threatening certain disaster on Asia and the Pacific, unless the region pulls itself together to prevent them.
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