IAEA Sees Military Link to Iran Nuclear Program

NTI: The International Atomic Energy Agency has uncovered potential connections between Iran’s nuclear energy program and military efforts on missiles and explosives, the New York Times reported today (see GSN, Jan. 31).

A four-page confidential agency report addresses the Green Salt Project, an Iranian entity allegedly involved in uranium processing, high explosives and a missile warhead design.

That mix of endeavors indicates a “military-nuclear dimension,” the document says. “Green salt” refers to uranium tetrafluoride, an intermediate product in the uranium conversion process, according to the Times.

That process ultimately creates uranium hexafluoride, which can be enriched to low levels for nuclear power fuel or to higher levels for use in nuclear weapons.

When confronted about the program, Tehran has repeatedly dismissed concerns as “baseless,” promising “further clarifications later,” the report says.

“The obvious technical connection is that these are all central elements of a program to develop nuclear weapons and delivery capability,” said Per Peterson, a nuclear engineering professor at the University of California, Berkeley.

The alleged linkage makes the effort highly suspicious, Peterson said.

U.S. officials have said the allegations in the report are partly based on documents found on a laptop computer seized in Iran (see GSN, Nov. 14, 2005) (Sciolino/Broad, New York Times, Feb. 1).

The IAEA report also says that 15 pages of documents and drawings provided by Iranian officials describe procedures only useful for producing nuclear weapons, the Associated Press reported yesterday.

The documents, originally provided to Iran by the nuclear network headed by former top Pakistani scientist Abdul Qadeer Khan, are under agency seal, according to the report (see GSN, Nov. 18, 2005).

The report also criticizes Iran for blocking access by IAEA officials during a recent trip to Tehran to at least one nuclear scientist with military links and ignoring requests for information on high explosives tests and a missile re-entry vehicle design. It also confirms recent reports that Tehran has not resumed uranium enrichment, but that uranium conversion, “substantial” maintenance work and testing of components had continued at the Natanz facility and another site, according to AP.

Meanwhile, some European Union officials indicated that a negotiated settlement of the issue was still possible.

“For us, the diplomatic path is not closed,” said French Foreign Ministry spokesman Jean-Baptiste Mattei. The push for Security Council referral is “reversible, too, if Iran makes the gestures we’re waiting for.”

EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana also said talk of sanctions was premature.

“We are in a diplomatic channel,” he said.

However, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton called a decision yesterday by key Security Council members to report Iran to that body a “major step forward.”

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said the council “will not make any (immediate) decisions.” Chinese and Russian diplomats are expected to travel to Tehran soon to discuss yesterday’s London agreement and to urge Iran to comply with agency demands, Lavrov said (Jahn/Dareini, Associated Press I/Breitbart.com, Jan. 31).

A senior State Department official said yesterday that Iran’s recent nuclear activity has been “pretty consistent” with preparation for enriching uranium, CNN.com reported.

“I don’t think we have time to play games in the Security Council, but we do have time to allow the Security Council to make clear to Iran there will be consequences, and impose consequences if necessary,” the official said.

“Iran sees this is going to the council but will have some time to do the right thing,” he said.

However, a renewed freeze on nuclear activities, the reapplication of IAEA seals on Iranian nuclear equipment and the resumption of negotiations with EU countries is not likely to occur, he said.

“We haven’t gotten any sense they are ready to do that,” he said. He added that Tehran has “shattered any basis” for further negotiations (Elise Labott, CNN.com, Jan. 31).

U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice yesterday expressed confidence that China and Russia support referring Iran to the Security Council, Reuters reported.

“There is a very strong consensus on what the problem is and that the problem has to be dealt with. I expect there will continue to be tactical differences about timing. There may even be tactical differences about precisely what is required but that’s the hard work of the diplomacy,” Rice said.

“I want there to be no confusion here that a report is a formal step to the Security Council,” she said. “This is the referral we have been seeking” (Sue Pleming, Reuters, Jan. 31).

A senior State Department official said that more than 30 of the 35 members of the IAEA’s governing board were likely to support referral at tomorrow’s emergency meeting, AFP reported yesterday.

“I would be very surprised if ... any other state other than perhaps Cuba or Venezuela, Syria maybe, would vote against this or would abstain,” the official said (Sylvie Lanteaume, Agence France-Presse I/Yahoo!News, Jan. 31).

Washington plans to push for a multistep approach at the Security Council, beginning first with a statement of concern, a senior administration official told the Washington Post yesterday.

A series of resolutions could then be passed, finally leading to sanctions, said the official

Several U.S. officials expressed pessimism about this effort.

“Don’t underestimate the total frustration across the U.S. government about giving Iran another chance,” said a senior official involved in the negotiations. “We got promises from the Europeans that we’d go to the council in November and then nothing happened. Then they said if Iran broke seals on equipment we’d go to the council, and again nothing happened.”

“In the meantime, Iran could pull another stunt — a technical pause and promises of cooperation, and that will get them a favorable report and then we’ll lose the momentum again,” the official said.

Meanwhile, Russian officials have objected to a U.S. briefing on yesterday’s London agreement, a European diplomat told the Post.

He added that Chinese and Russian diplomats in Vienna have questioned the proposed referral resolution (Kessler/Linzer, Washington Post, Feb. 1).

The Security Council could impose sanctions on Iran next month, French Foreign Minister Philippe Douste-Blazy said today.

“In March, the Security Council will be able to act, if necessary. The complete range of sanctions is conceivable,” Douste-Blazy told French daily Le Parisien (Reuters, Feb. 1).

British Foreign Secretary Jack Straw said today that the decision to postpone Security Council action until March provided a chance for Tehran to change course, AFP reported.

Straw told BBC radio that he would meet with Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki today in London and urge him to seize the opportunity.

“He really needs to see this agreed position by the leaders of the international community not as a threat but as ... a final opportunity for Iran to put itself back on track,” Straw said (Agence France-Presse II, Feb. 1).

Mottaki said yesterday that if Iran were reported to the Security Council, Tehran would bar snap IAEA nuclear inspections.

“If it happens, Iran will definitely terminate its cooperation (with the IAEA) as of Saturday Feb. 4,” Mottaki said (Ali Akbar Dareini, Associated Press II/Bergensavisen, Feb. 1).

Iran’s defense minister today warned of an “extremely quick and destructive response” to military strikes on the country’s nuclear installations, AFP reported.

“The protection of the atomic power station in Bushehr is of great importance to the Islamic republic of Iran,” Mostafa Mohammad Najjar added (Agence France-Presse III/Interactive Investor, Feb. 1).

Elsewhere, Indonesian Foreign Minister Hassan Wirajuda said he expects Iran to accept Russia’s compromise uranium enrichment offer, AP reported today.

Hassan said Iran’s top nuclear negotiator had told him that technical talks on the issue between Iran and Russia were scheduled for Feb. 16.

“It is most likely that Iran will accept,” he said. He added that this would “be the solution to the problem” (Associated Press III/Jakarta Post, Feb. 1).