Mexico politics: PRI's Madrazo under pressure
FROM THE ECONOMIST INTELLIGENCE UNIT
Less than a fortnight into official campaigning for the July 2nd presidential elections in Mexico, Latin America’s second-largest economy, rumours are swirling that Roberto Madrazo Pintado could struggle to hold on to his position as the candidate of the Alianza por México, an alliance of the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM). There is growing concern within the PRI that Mr Madrazo’s poor performance in opinion polls could scupper the party’s ambition to recover the presidency. If his performance has not improved markedly by March, the pressure on him to step down as candidate will increase.
Yet despite Mr Madrazo’s failings, dropping him could potentially cause the PRI’s deep internal divisions to escalate into a formal split, which itself would destroy the party’s prospects. Mr Madrazo would be most unlikely to leave easily or quietly. The PRI’s troubles will have an impact on governability whoever wins the elections, as the PRI is set to remain the largest party in Congress.
Over the next few weeks, Mr Madrazo will finalise his alliance’s candidate lists for the elections for legislators (both in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate) that will be held simultaneously with the presidential polls. Agreeing the lists will be highly sensitive. One factor aggravating internal tensions in the PRI is a fear on the part of many activists that the support of the PVEM (which the PRI assumes will bring Mr Madrazo six additional percentage points of the vote) may need to be purchased at too high a price in terms of candidate allocations.
A longstanding bitter dispute between Mr Madrazo and the PRI’s former secretary-general, Elba Ester Gordillo, continues to poison the atmosphere in the party. Ms Gordillo retains considerable political clout because of her leadership of the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (SNTE, the national teachers’ union), the largest union in Latin America. In 2005 she sponsored the creation of a breakaway party, the Partido Nueva Alianza (Panal), which is fielding a presidential candidate of its own, Roberto Campa Cifrián. Although Mr Campa is unlikely to poll more than a couple of percentage points of the vote, Ms Gordillo’s support of Panal is nonetheless a major blow to the PRI. The fact that Ms Gordillo remains in the PRI despite her conduct indicates a fear that her expulsion would further weaken the PRI’s election campaign.
Close-fought battle
The election will be the most closely fought in Mexico’s history. A great deal is at stake. If the government that takes office in December fails to implement reforms needed to spur more dynamic GDP growth, persistent economic underperformance will exacerbate Mexico’s acute social problems, characterised by serious income inequalities, widespread labour informality, endemic crime and widespread illegal emigration. Growth of real GDP per head has averaged just 1.4% per year since the early 1990s. Moreover, the government’s dependence on oil for a large share of its fiscal revenues is becoming increasingly worrisome as Cantarell, the largest oil field (which accounts for around two-thirds of production) enters decline.
Aside from Mr Madrazo and Mr Campa, three other candidates are standing: Felipe Calderón Hinojosa of the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN); Andrés Manuel López Obrador for the Coalición por el Bien de Todos (which groups the leftist the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) with smaller leftist parties); and Patricia Mercado for the tiny Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina. The contest will also entail the election of the entire 500-strong national Chamber of Deputies and the 128-member Senate, along with local elections in ten states. As Mr Campa and Ms Mercado are likely to poll few votes, the presidential contest will be a tight race between Messrs Calderón, Madrazo and López Obrador.
AMLO’s election to lose?
Mr López Obrador has been the frontrunner in voter polls for more than 18 months and the latest poll, released on January 18th by Mitofsky, one of the more respected pollsters, accords him 39% of voting intentions. He is followed by Mr Calderón (31%), with Mr Madrazo in third place (29%). If this breakdown holds to Election Day, Mr López Obrador will become president, as there is no second round in Mexican presidential elections.
However, Mr López Obrador’s lead is not unassailable. Of the three candidates, he has been most dependent on support from the most volatile segment of voters, who have no party affiliation and account for 30% of the 70m-strong electorate. According to Mitofsky, 16 of Mr López Obrador’s 39 points are accounted for by floating voters. Mr Calderón is less dependent on the floating vote (8 of his 31 points), while only 7 of Mr Madrazo’s 29 points are attributable to floating voters.
The next few weeks should provide clearer indications of the solidity of Mr López Obrador’s support. Only since November, by which time Mr Calderón and Mr Madrazo had been confirmed as the PAN and PRI candidates, has he been measured against clearly defined rivals. Only from now will he face the full force of the other parties’ campaigns. Therefore, any of the three main candidates could in theory prevail on Election Day.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Latin America
Less than a fortnight into official campaigning for the July 2nd presidential elections in Mexico, Latin America’s second-largest economy, rumours are swirling that Roberto Madrazo Pintado could struggle to hold on to his position as the candidate of the Alianza por México, an alliance of the opposition Partido Revolucionario Institucional (PRI) and the Partido Verde Ecologista de México (PVEM). There is growing concern within the PRI that Mr Madrazo’s poor performance in opinion polls could scupper the party’s ambition to recover the presidency. If his performance has not improved markedly by March, the pressure on him to step down as candidate will increase.
Yet despite Mr Madrazo’s failings, dropping him could potentially cause the PRI’s deep internal divisions to escalate into a formal split, which itself would destroy the party’s prospects. Mr Madrazo would be most unlikely to leave easily or quietly. The PRI’s troubles will have an impact on governability whoever wins the elections, as the PRI is set to remain the largest party in Congress.
Over the next few weeks, Mr Madrazo will finalise his alliance’s candidate lists for the elections for legislators (both in the Chamber of Deputies and the Senate) that will be held simultaneously with the presidential polls. Agreeing the lists will be highly sensitive. One factor aggravating internal tensions in the PRI is a fear on the part of many activists that the support of the PVEM (which the PRI assumes will bring Mr Madrazo six additional percentage points of the vote) may need to be purchased at too high a price in terms of candidate allocations.
A longstanding bitter dispute between Mr Madrazo and the PRI’s former secretary-general, Elba Ester Gordillo, continues to poison the atmosphere in the party. Ms Gordillo retains considerable political clout because of her leadership of the Sindicato Nacional de Trabajadores de la Educación (SNTE, the national teachers’ union), the largest union in Latin America. In 2005 she sponsored the creation of a breakaway party, the Partido Nueva Alianza (Panal), which is fielding a presidential candidate of its own, Roberto Campa Cifrián. Although Mr Campa is unlikely to poll more than a couple of percentage points of the vote, Ms Gordillo’s support of Panal is nonetheless a major blow to the PRI. The fact that Ms Gordillo remains in the PRI despite her conduct indicates a fear that her expulsion would further weaken the PRI’s election campaign.
Close-fought battle
The election will be the most closely fought in Mexico’s history. A great deal is at stake. If the government that takes office in December fails to implement reforms needed to spur more dynamic GDP growth, persistent economic underperformance will exacerbate Mexico’s acute social problems, characterised by serious income inequalities, widespread labour informality, endemic crime and widespread illegal emigration. Growth of real GDP per head has averaged just 1.4% per year since the early 1990s. Moreover, the government’s dependence on oil for a large share of its fiscal revenues is becoming increasingly worrisome as Cantarell, the largest oil field (which accounts for around two-thirds of production) enters decline.
Aside from Mr Madrazo and Mr Campa, three other candidates are standing: Felipe Calderón Hinojosa of the ruling Partido Acción Nacional (PAN); Andrés Manuel López Obrador for the Coalición por el Bien de Todos (which groups the leftist the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD) with smaller leftist parties); and Patricia Mercado for the tiny Alternativa Socialdemócrata y Campesina. The contest will also entail the election of the entire 500-strong national Chamber of Deputies and the 128-member Senate, along with local elections in ten states. As Mr Campa and Ms Mercado are likely to poll few votes, the presidential contest will be a tight race between Messrs Calderón, Madrazo and López Obrador.
AMLO’s election to lose?
Mr López Obrador has been the frontrunner in voter polls for more than 18 months and the latest poll, released on January 18th by Mitofsky, one of the more respected pollsters, accords him 39% of voting intentions. He is followed by Mr Calderón (31%), with Mr Madrazo in third place (29%). If this breakdown holds to Election Day, Mr López Obrador will become president, as there is no second round in Mexican presidential elections.
However, Mr López Obrador’s lead is not unassailable. Of the three candidates, he has been most dependent on support from the most volatile segment of voters, who have no party affiliation and account for 30% of the 70m-strong electorate. According to Mitofsky, 16 of Mr López Obrador’s 39 points are accounted for by floating voters. Mr Calderón is less dependent on the floating vote (8 of his 31 points), while only 7 of Mr Madrazo’s 29 points are attributable to floating voters.
The next few weeks should provide clearer indications of the solidity of Mr López Obrador’s support. Only since November, by which time Mr Calderón and Mr Madrazo had been confirmed as the PAN and PRI candidates, has he been measured against clearly defined rivals. Only from now will he face the full force of the other parties’ campaigns. Therefore, any of the three main candidates could in theory prevail on Election Day.
SOURCE: ViewsWire Latin America
posted by Marko at 2/02/2006 10:47:00 AM
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