ITALY ELECTIONS: PRODI AND BERLUSCONI NECK AND NECK
Rome, 10 April (AKI) - Prime minister Silvio Berlusconi and his rival Romano Prodi were locked in a neck and neck battle to govern the country late on Monday, as incoming results from general elections showed a reverse on initial exit polls and on pundits' predictions of a centre left victory. Prodi deferred a planned appearance at a rally as the vote count showed his increasingly uncertain and in an unusual move Berlusconi flew to Rome to watched events unfold. With more than half the votes counted, Prodi's alliance had a narrow lead in the lower house, while Berlusconi's coalition had a five seat lead in the Senate.
Based on 86 percent of pollster Nexus' sampling, Berlusconi's alliance was set to win 157 Senate seats, compared with Prodi's 152. The margin of error for the sample was between 1 and 3 percentage points and it did not take into account for six seats chosen by Italians abroad.
Shortly after the elections finished, exit polls, which have proven unreliable in past Italian elections, had pointed to a five percentage point lead by Prodi's centre-left alliance which looked set to secure a comfortable majority in both chambers of parliament.
However that picture - endorsed by two separate research institutes - altered dramatically as the partial vote count and statistical projections based on the results were released.
Berlusconi's party Forza Italia is however still looking like the most voted single party, after a bitter electoral campaign played very much as a referendum on Berlusconi and his performance in government.
The huge contradictions between exit polls carried out by two separate polling institutes and the statistical projections based on the partial vote countr has raised questions about methodology but also about the truthfulness of Italians interviewed about how they had voted.
But the nightmare scenario for many political analysts looked late Monday like becoming reality: an electorate split down the middle and a stalemate, either due to each alliance winning control of one house of parliament or to a negligible majority by one party, that would make governing near impossible.
Based on 86 percent of pollster Nexus' sampling, Berlusconi's alliance was set to win 157 Senate seats, compared with Prodi's 152. The margin of error for the sample was between 1 and 3 percentage points and it did not take into account for six seats chosen by Italians abroad.
Shortly after the elections finished, exit polls, which have proven unreliable in past Italian elections, had pointed to a five percentage point lead by Prodi's centre-left alliance which looked set to secure a comfortable majority in both chambers of parliament.
However that picture - endorsed by two separate research institutes - altered dramatically as the partial vote count and statistical projections based on the results were released.
Berlusconi's party Forza Italia is however still looking like the most voted single party, after a bitter electoral campaign played very much as a referendum on Berlusconi and his performance in government.
The huge contradictions between exit polls carried out by two separate polling institutes and the statistical projections based on the partial vote countr has raised questions about methodology but also about the truthfulness of Italians interviewed about how they had voted.
But the nightmare scenario for many political analysts looked late Monday like becoming reality: an electorate split down the middle and a stalemate, either due to each alliance winning control of one house of parliament or to a negligible majority by one party, that would make governing near impossible.
posted by Marko at 4/10/2006 12:27:00 PM
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