US-Italian relations face change under Prodi

By Eric J. Lyman in Rome for ISN Security Watch (25/04/06)

The first signals about the security strategy of incoming Italian Prime Minister Romano Prodi will likely come from the withdrawal of Italian troops from Iraq and whether or not Prodi will push for the extradition of 22 CIA agents in connection with the 2003 kidnapping of an Egyptian cleric from Milan.

Both issues are likely to test Italy's relationship with the US, something that comes as no surprise. Because outgoing prime minister Silvio Berlusconi so closely tethered Italy's security strategy to that of the US, the incoming Prodi government is likely to strain relations with Washington by making even the smallest changes.

Berlusconi, the media tycoon-turned-politician whom Prodi's coalition ousted from office during Italy's 9-10 April elections, prided himself on close ties to Washington, visiting often and even conducting a rare address to a joint session of Congress in March. Berlusconi sent what was at the time the third largest troop contingent in Iraq - behind only the US and England - and has cooperated with the US on most counter-terrorism initiatives taking place in Europe, often despite protests from skeptical EU states such as France and Germany.

But under Prodi, much of that is likely to change.

Though Berlusconi vowed to remove most Italian troops from Iraq by the end of the year, Prodi has promised to withdraw all forces as quickly as possible. And while the Italian Justice Ministry in January formally requested permission to interview the CIA agents connected with the 42-year-old cleric Osama Moustafa Hassan Nasr - a request that was denied - calls for their extradition and arrest lacked backing from Berlusconi. Reports are that Prodi may choose to push the issue.

"One of the main differences between Berlusconi and Prodi is that while Berlusconi preferred strong ties with Washington, Prodi is an avowed European Union advocate," Bruno Agostino, political scientist and commentator from Roma Due University, told ISN Security Watch. "This difference in allegiance has many security-related implications."

The case involving Nasr is particularly important. Also known as Abu Omar, the cleric is a suspect in at least two terror-related investigations and was reportedly abducted from the streets of Milan and whisked out of the country for questioning by US officials. The action was a clear affront to Italian sovereignty: it is illegal for agents of one country to apprehend someone in another country without that country's permission. And according to international law, the interrogation should take place in the country where the suspect was apprehended unless that country gives up that right.

But while Berlusconi was lukewarm in his efforts to press the issue with Washington, it will be telling to note whether Prodi, a former European Commission president, will take a harder line.

"I think we will be able to read a lot about the nature of the way Prodi will conduct the relationship between Italy and the United States based on the way this CIA issue is carried out," Agostino said.

For their part, Italian magistrates overseeing the Nasr case say they relish the prospect of working with a new government on this case.

"We will repeat the extradition request the moment the new government is formed," prosecutor Armando Spataro said in a statement. "We are convinced there will be a different decision from the next minister of justice."

On Iraq, the US and its partners have stressed the need for an "orderly" withdrawal of troops so as not to create gaps in security there. Berlusconi had planned for a withdrawal spread over several stages. Prodi during the campaign period indicated he might bring everyone aside from a small handful of official observers home at once.

Though there has been no official word on the withdrawal from the Prodi camp since the election results were certified by an Italian court, one early indication of Italy's plans came in the form of a statement from Polish Defense Minister Radek Sikorski, who revealed on Monday that Polish troops were already starting to replace Italian soldiers in several key posts.
Bad blood

Relations between the two countries could be further complicated by bad blood between Prodi and the White House. When US President George W. Bush invited Berlusconi to address Congress in March, the two men also appeared together for photo opportunities, with Bush calling Berlusconi "a good friend of America" and endorsing his re-election campaign - giving Berlusconi a boost very near the Italian vote.

Experts say Prodi is unlikely to forget Bush's involvement in domestic Italian affairs.

"President Bush tried to tilt the election in Berlusconi's favor at the last minute," Antonio Prizzo, a retired political analyst who has worked with state-run RAI television, told ISN Security Watch. "How can they forget that?"

An advisor close to Prodi's campaign was harsher. "We know we were not Washington's choice, and they are not our choice either," the advisor told ISN Security Watch on condition of anonymity.

Privately, other advisors say that by distancing itself from the US, Italy could actually be safer, since it would be less of a target from anti-US elements.

Officially, though, Prodi has taken a fairly moderate stance on the topic, stressing his desire to maintain good relations with Washington, but noting that Italy could not forget it was merely a friend of the US while it is a founding member of the EU. He has said that only the EU as a united bloc has the strength and clout to counter-balance US power and influence.
Security and defense

But is being part of a counter-balance good or bad for Italy? In the wake of the election, pollsters report that some Italians express concern over relations with Washington, but that Prodi scored high on questions about whether or not he would be strong on issues like security and defense.

According to Maria Rossi, co-director of the polling firm Opinioni, that is because most Italians fail to see a strong connection between Italo-American relations and issues like security.

"From what we have discovered, for most Italians there is a limited link between the nature of the relationship between the United States and Italy and the security of Italian interests," Rossi told ISN Security Watch.

When contacted by ISN Security Watch for comment about the new government's plans in these areas, Prodi's spokesman was circumspect.

"It will all be announced after we officially take office," the spokesman said. "At this point, we are not the government, we are the government in waiting."

Prodi is likely to officially take the reins of power in the second half of May. Outgoing Italian President Carlo Azeglio Ciampi, who will officially retire on 16 May, has said he wants his replacement to give Prodi the oath of office, though a replacement has not yet been named. The newly elected Italian parliament will meet for the first time, and selecting a new president will be its first order of business.

Eric J. Lyman is ISN Security Watch's senior correspondent in Rome.