Spy satellites being sidelined in terror war
By Carmen Gentile for ISN Security Watch (12/05/06)
Technology that played an integral role in the Cold War has been condemned by some experts and analysts as irrelevant in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and anywhere else insurgents might operate or attack.
Gone are the days when a satellite would provide US military officials with crucial data about the rank and file of the number one enemy. Today’s small militant cells are unencumbered by boundaries or heavy artillery and are more mobile than traditional armies and therefore harder to track. Both Taliban and al-Qaida leaders are cognizant of satellite orbits and school their fighters in how to avoid detection and the times when the “eye in the sky” is passing over their region.
“Soviets were great believers in making it abundantly clear where the sensitive material was, but al-Qaida doesn’t work way,” said John E. Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org.
Faced with this global shift, the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is trying to reinvent itself for a new kind of warfare that uses relatively low-tech solutions to stump its high-tech gadgetry, which costs US taxpayers some US$7 billion annually.
Cell phone signals are mostly undetected by satellite because they operate on an L-band frequency, which when the current stock of satellites were created was considered too weak to be a security concern.
But with cell phone usage rampant among insurgents and terrorists for coordinating attacks and pinpointing targets, it has become clear that the multi-million dollar orbiters are useless when trying to track their communications.
The same can be said for the internet, which relies on fiber optic cables to transmit data, information that cannot be tracked via satellite.
Adding to their limitations is the fact that satellites spend most of their time flying over parts of the earth that intelligence gatherers “don’t want to see”, noted Pike, who referred to the significant downtime between passes over a target area as a satellite’s “high absentee ratio”.
Factoring in the weather as well, namely cloud coverage, and a satellite might only get one opportunity to survey a suspected terror training ground, which usually can be broken down and abandoned within hours anyway.
Of course, the US has not given up on its array of high-priced celestial gadgetry.
The NRO is trying to make inroads into modernizing its satellite fleet to meet the intelligence challenges of 21st century terror warfare.
A new NRO project dubbed Future Imagery Architecture - 12 new satellites with unprecedented image resolution capabilities - is scheduled to be launched by 2013. However, the US$25 billion project has been hampered by budgeting setbacks and technical difficulties. In 2005, much of the work that was allotted to Boeing was taken away and given to rival Lockheed Martin.
In the meantime, the current fleet of US satellites will not go unused, said Pike, noting that the images of Iranian territory were crucial to Washington’s decision to pressure Tehran to give up its nuclear aspirations. The war of wills between the US and Iran has the former threatening strikes if the latter fails to comply with UN inspectors and halt efforts to enrich uranium.
Much of the US intelligence on Iran’s refinement capability came from satellite imagery, said experts, and is the basis for the White House’s concern over Tehran’s ambition to build a nuclear bomb.
In that sense, the satellites continue to play a crucial role in US foreign policy, but when Iran responds with suicide bombers, they won’t help,” opined Pike bleakly.
Some terror experts noted that less advanced technology might be the solution to combating terror cells, noting that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying thousands of meters over a target area can gather more information than a satellite in space can.
UAVs like the hand-launched Raven used in Iraq and Afghanistan are used by US forces to fly over suspected terror havens like caves or buildings. The advantage of the UAV over the satellite is its capability to make multiple passes over the same target in a short period of time and relay the information via live video feed.
But Winslow Wheeler, director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, noted that the UAVs had “lots of limitations”.
The small aircraft tend to be noisy and slow, making them easy targets for terror sharpshooters, said Wheeler, adding that the resolution of the on-board camera was low.
“The things they want to see, namely the ‘bad guys’, can see the UAV coming,” he said.
The CDI analyst was also critical of the US force’s use of UAVs to, for example, find a hidden weapons cache or track terror cell movements, calling the actions “ludicrous” and that no satellite or UAV could out perform first-hand intelligence gathering.
“We [US forces] keep trying to solve human problems with technology and it’s not likely to happen,” said Wheeler.
While the Americans may be souring on celestial espionage, other nations appear committed to space surveillance.
Last month, Russia launched for Israel a spy satellite for keeping tabs on Iran.
The latest addition to the cadre of spy satellites orbiting the globe - Israel’s Eros B, set to orbit alongside its predecessor Eros A - was designed to spot objects as small as 70 centimeters across, and according to Israeli officials, will allow Tel Aviv to gather information on Tehran’s nuclear program and monitor its long-range missile, which is capable of striking Israel.
“This satellite will enhance our ability to collect quality intelligence at great distances from Israel," said Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz after the April launch. "Israel proved once again that it first counts on itself when it comes to protecting its citizens and is at work all the time to develop advanced and new technological means to deal with the threats around us."
Just how effective Israel’s new eye in the sky is in tracking enemies of the Jewish state remains to be seen.
Carmen Gentile is a senior international correspondent for ISN Security Watch based in Rio de Janeiro. He has reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Bolivia for Security Watch, and Haiti, Venezuela, and elsewhere for United Press International, The Washington Times, and others.
Technology that played an integral role in the Cold War has been condemned by some experts and analysts as irrelevant in the wars in Iraq, Afghanistan, and anywhere else insurgents might operate or attack.
Gone are the days when a satellite would provide US military officials with crucial data about the rank and file of the number one enemy. Today’s small militant cells are unencumbered by boundaries or heavy artillery and are more mobile than traditional armies and therefore harder to track. Both Taliban and al-Qaida leaders are cognizant of satellite orbits and school their fighters in how to avoid detection and the times when the “eye in the sky” is passing over their region.
“Soviets were great believers in making it abundantly clear where the sensitive material was, but al-Qaida doesn’t work way,” said John E. Pike, director of Globalsecurity.org.
Faced with this global shift, the US National Reconnaissance Office (NRO) is trying to reinvent itself for a new kind of warfare that uses relatively low-tech solutions to stump its high-tech gadgetry, which costs US taxpayers some US$7 billion annually.
Cell phone signals are mostly undetected by satellite because they operate on an L-band frequency, which when the current stock of satellites were created was considered too weak to be a security concern.
But with cell phone usage rampant among insurgents and terrorists for coordinating attacks and pinpointing targets, it has become clear that the multi-million dollar orbiters are useless when trying to track their communications.
The same can be said for the internet, which relies on fiber optic cables to transmit data, information that cannot be tracked via satellite.
Adding to their limitations is the fact that satellites spend most of their time flying over parts of the earth that intelligence gatherers “don’t want to see”, noted Pike, who referred to the significant downtime between passes over a target area as a satellite’s “high absentee ratio”.
Factoring in the weather as well, namely cloud coverage, and a satellite might only get one opportunity to survey a suspected terror training ground, which usually can be broken down and abandoned within hours anyway.
Of course, the US has not given up on its array of high-priced celestial gadgetry.
The NRO is trying to make inroads into modernizing its satellite fleet to meet the intelligence challenges of 21st century terror warfare.
A new NRO project dubbed Future Imagery Architecture - 12 new satellites with unprecedented image resolution capabilities - is scheduled to be launched by 2013. However, the US$25 billion project has been hampered by budgeting setbacks and technical difficulties. In 2005, much of the work that was allotted to Boeing was taken away and given to rival Lockheed Martin.
In the meantime, the current fleet of US satellites will not go unused, said Pike, noting that the images of Iranian territory were crucial to Washington’s decision to pressure Tehran to give up its nuclear aspirations. The war of wills between the US and Iran has the former threatening strikes if the latter fails to comply with UN inspectors and halt efforts to enrich uranium.
Much of the US intelligence on Iran’s refinement capability came from satellite imagery, said experts, and is the basis for the White House’s concern over Tehran’s ambition to build a nuclear bomb.
In that sense, the satellites continue to play a crucial role in US foreign policy, but when Iran responds with suicide bombers, they won’t help,” opined Pike bleakly.
Some terror experts noted that less advanced technology might be the solution to combating terror cells, noting that an unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flying thousands of meters over a target area can gather more information than a satellite in space can.
UAVs like the hand-launched Raven used in Iraq and Afghanistan are used by US forces to fly over suspected terror havens like caves or buildings. The advantage of the UAV over the satellite is its capability to make multiple passes over the same target in a short period of time and relay the information via live video feed.
But Winslow Wheeler, director of the Straus Military Reform Project at the Center for Defense Information in Washington, noted that the UAVs had “lots of limitations”.
The small aircraft tend to be noisy and slow, making them easy targets for terror sharpshooters, said Wheeler, adding that the resolution of the on-board camera was low.
“The things they want to see, namely the ‘bad guys’, can see the UAV coming,” he said.
The CDI analyst was also critical of the US force’s use of UAVs to, for example, find a hidden weapons cache or track terror cell movements, calling the actions “ludicrous” and that no satellite or UAV could out perform first-hand intelligence gathering.
“We [US forces] keep trying to solve human problems with technology and it’s not likely to happen,” said Wheeler.
While the Americans may be souring on celestial espionage, other nations appear committed to space surveillance.
Last month, Russia launched for Israel a spy satellite for keeping tabs on Iran.
The latest addition to the cadre of spy satellites orbiting the globe - Israel’s Eros B, set to orbit alongside its predecessor Eros A - was designed to spot objects as small as 70 centimeters across, and according to Israeli officials, will allow Tel Aviv to gather information on Tehran’s nuclear program and monitor its long-range missile, which is capable of striking Israel.
“This satellite will enhance our ability to collect quality intelligence at great distances from Israel," said Defense Minister Shaul Mofaz after the April launch. "Israel proved once again that it first counts on itself when it comes to protecting its citizens and is at work all the time to develop advanced and new technological means to deal with the threats around us."
Just how effective Israel’s new eye in the sky is in tracking enemies of the Jewish state remains to be seen.
Carmen Gentile is a senior international correspondent for ISN Security Watch based in Rio de Janeiro. He has reported from Iraq, Afghanistan, and Bolivia for Security Watch, and Haiti, Venezuela, and elsewhere for United Press International, The Washington Times, and others.
posted by Marko at 5/12/2006 04:35:00 AM
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