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Friday, December 02, 2005

Operation 'Active Endeavour' gets boost from Russia & Ukraine

The Russian Federation and Ukraine have finally announced they are joining the naval anti-terrorism operation whose focus is on Black Sea Security.

NATO Secretary General expects the Russians to join in early 2006 which was confirmed at the end of November.

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Russia & Turkey: Black Sea security

As the War on Terror looms across the globe, a region which is arguably the most strategic, goes unchecked. NATO's Operation 'Active Endeavour' is meant to combat criminal activity in the Black Sea which serves many insurgent groups as a main smuggling route and financing. As more terror warnings are issued, the increasing fear is that Europe will be the next 9/11-style target.

Early this month, Operation Active Endeavour started actively patrolling the eastern Mediterranean against naroctics trafficking, human smuggling, arms and radioactive materials associated with rebel groups bordering its coastlines. Guarding the region, Operation 'Active Endeavour' involves navies from Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Spain, Turkey, the UK and US. They have monitored thousands of ships and, in accordance with international law, boarded the most suspicious ones. The mission is to intercept, escort, protect, disrupt and deter criminal activity that may support terrorist activities. Equally important, the operation has enabled NATO to build an accurate picture of Mediterranean traffic, essential for future counter-terrorist operations.

Against all reason, Turkey and Russia has jointly opposed extending the US-led operation into the Black Sea that assist terrorism. Terrorist groups such as Hizbollah, Al Qaeda, Chechen Rebels, KLA and the PKK have all used the Black Sea to finance its operations and gain access to the Mediterranean as a bridge to enter Europe. The militias have used their links with organised crime syndicates within the Black Sea to conduct acts of terrorism outside Chechnya, primarily in Russia and Turkey. Nightmare scenarios revolving around Khan's nuclear smuggling outfit and Chechen plans to hijack ships in the Boshphorus only heighten concerns by Turkish and Russian intelligence.

Russian intentions

With the latest attack in South Ossetia by Shamil Basayev, Russia especially should want to cut off the Black Sea to its Chechen foe. However, this does not seem to be the case. Russia, in fact, had wanted all its commercial ships exempted from inspection, a key procedure to the operation. Then it had demanded that it be led by a joint NATO-Russia Council after it had asked for NATO to fund Russia's parciptation entirely. Predictably, all Russian demands were rejected outright.

Beyond the Black Sea, Russia persists in protecting Iran's nuclear ambitions, which are perhaps the greatest medium-term threat to Turkish security. Both financially and politically beneficial to Russia, Iran's nuclear power plans are dependent on nuclear fuel which would be shipped from Russia via the Black Sea. Precisely the region where 'Active Endeavour' would stop and inspect the cargo ships, something which is unacceptable to the Kremlin.

The Black Sea is the nexus of East-West trade: an integral part of Europe, connected to Rotterdam by the Danube and Rhine Rivers and to Southern Europe through the Bosphorus and the Dardanelles. Unfortunately, the Black Sea also laps the shores of lands rife with the sort of criminality 'Active Endeavour' combats. Of particular concern are self-declared mafiosi mini-states like Transdniestria and Abkhazia. The region is a legitimate concern of non-littoral NATO states, but Russia "can see no sense in it", said the Russian Defence Minister, Sergei Ivanov.

Russia has increased its pressure as it props up Abkhazia and its rebel forces in an effort to destablize Georgia, Turkey's democratic ally. So important is the region to Moscow, they have even resorted to delivering Abkhazia a warship in 2004 when Georgia held rotating command of security operations. It is easy to see Moscow's attitude has more to do with post-imperial angst than with combating terrorism.

Enter Turkey

The most surprising development is that NATO ally Turkey has joined Russia in opposing 'Active Endeavour' in the Black Sea. Public reports indicate that Turkey may be a significant transshipment route for nuclear smuggling from the former Soviet Union (FSU). Eighteen nuclear trafficking incidents involving Turkey were reported between 1993 and 1999.

Turkish officials have denied publicly that any plutonium or highly enriched uranium has been seized in the country. According to unconfirmed open-source reports, however, Turkish authorities seized several grams of plutonium in Bursa, Turkey in 1998, which had been smuggled from either Kazakhstan or Russia. In another reported incident, police confiscated 12g of highly enriched uranium in Zurich, Switzerland on 22 January 1996, and arrested a Turkish national who was a member of a nuclear smuggling group based in Turkey. The suspect said the material was destined for Libya. Four days later, Turkish police arrested the remaining members of this alleged smuggling ring in Yalova with 1.2kg of uranium in their possession. Furthermore, Turkish, Russian, and international wire services reported that Turkish police seized 750g of weapons-grade uranium, which had originated in Azerbaijan, in Istanbul in 1994.

With rebel activity becoming more and more lethal in the North Caucacus, Russian animosity towards Turkey is obvious. Turkey has a broad support for Chechen rebels, considered to be genetic relatives to Turks, where its arms and financing comes literally; 'by the boatloads'. Russian estimates say 400 or more foreign fighters have been sent to Chechnya from Turkey.
The US has been putting pressure on Turkey, Georgia and Saudi Arabia to cease supplying weapons and to end all forms of financial aid to insurgent groups but these attempts have been met with only sparse success. Operation 'Active Endevour' would significantly reduce terrorist groups logistics in the region by creating a powerful counter-terrorist force with non-Black Sea littoral NATO navies Bulgaria, Romania and Turkey, augmented by Georgia, Russia and the Ukraine. Still, writes veteran Russia-watcher Vladimir Socor: "Turkey appears comfortable with a Turkish-Russian naval condominium in the Black Sea."

Conclusion

In reality, Turkey's and Russia's interests do not coincide concerning the Black Sea. As Russia props up its criminal enclaves in Transdniestria and Abkhazia, its officials and military embroiled in crime, it spares no effort to forge ahead its is past imperialistic attitude as it’s Chechen guerilla's take its toll on Putin's government and Russia's population.

As Turkey blindly supports Chechnya's independence and combats its own rebel problems with the PKK, even the most primitive analysis would consider both nations security operations as hypocritical.

With regard to the Turkish Straits, Russia has steadfastly opposed safety regulations since Turkey imposed them in 1994. Such measures are not inconsistent with the Montreux Convention and are altogether reasonable to manage the 50,000 vessels transiting the straits each year. Moreover, Moscow has resisted oil and gas pipelines that would alleviate tanker traffic through the straits.

As the intertwined geopolitics of the region play out, Turkey has the most to lose. With vital economic value of the Turkish straits in danger of terrorist attack rival that of the Limburg in 1996, Operation Active Endevour would protect shipping channels in the narrowest stretch of the Bosphorus. Both Russia and Turkey must re-evaluate its policies and act accordingly to safeguard the region through Operation Active Endeavour.



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